MAG5035

25 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Ground temp must have warmed up a good bit this past week - snow really melted quickly despite temps at or below freezing. 

Yea ground could be part of it to a degree. I do think the combo of the solar and the LSV temps (a degree or two either side of freezing this afternoon) is the main culprit with the light fluffy snow. Guess we can call it a combo of all three. If temps were about 5-10 degrees colder I don’t think the snow would be disappearing as easy. Solar is getting into that part of February where it becomes a good bit more noticeable going into the second half of the month but it’s not going to do much to an established pack if temps are cold. 

28 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

It'll be fun to watch what happens later on. 

I hope so, missing these events going east is getting old.. although I did overachieve with my T last night haha. 

12 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Most of mine is gone already.  It was not the kind of snow that resists sun. 

@canderson is going to be mulching the garden today after all lol. 

Light snow here currently, which is already more than I was expecting to see from this. 29ºF

Still some pretty big differences with the 3k vs 12k NAM, given upstream radar trends at PIT,RLX (Charleston), and JKL (Jackson, KY) I’d say the more filled in presentation of the 3k is more on track. I wonder if the GFS is going to ever see this event before it starts in the LSV. 

On 2/11/2022 at 1:19 PM, Itstrainingtime said:

Any snow left out your way? (other than piles) 

Nah not really, the warm day yesterday relegated it to being pretty patchy. The only area nearby that likely has any solid pack left is the higher elevations in the Laurels. 

Despite holding on to a half decent pack for about a month or so, our snow averages back here aren’t much better than the LSV percentage wise. I consider a winter in the 45-55” range to be average in this specific location.. I’m just under 20” at the moment. In the Laurel’s, Blue Knob Ski Resort has noted a season to date total of about 44”, while Seven Springs has 54”. Laurel Summit’s (near the 7 Springs Resort) average is over 150” and Blue Knob is in the same ballpark with it’s seasonal average. 

5 minutes ago, paweather said:

Sorry Mag I know a lot of Sixer chatter my bad

Nah I’m just joking haha

2 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Yes, if we were only talking weather right now...well, the thread would be pretty dead. Not that we're quickly filling pages as it is. 

Maybe March will deliver something to get everyone involved for the real reason why we want to be here. 

Between all the Sixers talk and the talk about daffodils and getting the garden going the last couple days  I was wondering if I was still in central PA lol.

High was 52ºF after a low of 16ºF this morning, so quite the diurnal range of temps (+36º). Also pretty dry with dewpoints mostly in the mid 20s this afternoon, so not a complete meltdown…but open areas did melt off pretty good today.

19 minutes ago, Streak said:

I’m still hoping for a big region-wide snowstorm before the end of the month, but I won’t lie; I’m really looking forward to spring. 

Yea at this point I just want a straight-up 5-10” snowstorm with no baggage (mixing), preferably this month. I haven’t looked super hard past the next couple weeks but I feel like if we have a total pattern change and more extended warm spell towards the end of the month, we’re likely to have another potential cold/wintry period sometime in March probably about the time when everyone starts really getting spring fling in here. 

Currently 17ºF/15ºF outside. This is the current situation just down the street… another busted water line. Fortunately my water comes from the other way. That’s the 3rd one I’ve come across around the city in the last 5 nights. This cold stretch has done a number on that and the roads (bulges, pot holes, etc).

53 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

I already posted in the mid Atlantic thread but 18z  Eps keeps the door open for all possible solutions for Sunday .

Here’s the member plots for MDT on 24 hr snow for both 18z Euro and GFS. I mean it’s still a good majority with not much but there’s definitely a signal there on both ensembles. The GEFS mean is showing roughly the evolution of what the last couple runs of the GFS op has been doing while there appears to be some Euro members (about 6-8 on rough count) that manage to yank this thing up the coast (even one or two cut and had the snow swath in western PA). 

18z Euro EPS

18z GEFS

Will say these ensemble meteograms looked nothing like this at around this range when we were trying to reel in the 1/28-29 storm. It took a while into the game before they finally started locking in on that one. So we’ll see if the better signal earlier can continue to improve. This is definitely worth watching the next couple days.  Like I’ve said, we have the pattern alignment we need showing in this timeframe with a great western ridge. The key is how the features interact and their timing. 

18z GFS pretty close to making a decent event with the potential Valentine’s Day-ish storm. Actually for the forum majority (LSV) it’s pretty good H-burg south. An improvement from 12z which had a lighter area of snow run the Mid-Atlantic but not getting into southern PA. Looks like it’s generated from the northern stream energy attempted to interact with the southern. Canadian today also had this (pretty light) while the Euro was a nothing burger. 

Definitely don’t think this threat is dead. The pattern alignment is there in that timeframe that if we can get good interaction/phase in time, this can be the type of event we’ve been looking for. This could also turn into another 1/29 (in terms of placement of best snow) if this comes back toward the storm scenario but not in time for us. Or… it could be nothing, but I think we’re already aware of that possibility. Either way this is still D5-6, which has felt like the limit this winter for the models starting to consistently start dialing in on something. Not that they ever are consistent at that range and beyond but models have seemed to have more trouble than usual in the mid range this winter. Likely due to the progressive pattern and many moving parts. 

On 1/28/2022 at 7:56 PM, MAG5035 said:

Some additional thoughts going forward… I wouldn’t completely sleep on the next bigger weather system slated late next week being just a straight up big warm up and rainmaker… especially in the more interior portions of C-PA but even region-wide too.

First feature of note is mid-week a pretty strong low is slated to track well north of the Lakes and tries to drag a frontal boundary which is likely what the main system will run on. Euro seems more concise with one main wave and GFS a bit drawn out with an additional wave running that eventually pulls the cold boundary and turns a lot of C-PA to ice and frozen just prior to fresh arctic air blasting into PA . There’s also a lot of cold and high pressure on the playing field. While main focus in terms of the strongest high presses cold more into the Central/Mountain West US via a western trough that briefly develops in the western US.. there is half decent high pressure present modeled to our north. Given the range, the globals don’t generally see the CAD as well so there’s the possibility of a messy front end of the event. Most of interior C-PA has an established pack too. The low tracks are pretty close too, really. The 18z GFS for instance takes the eventual main surface low thru PA while the 12z Euro was up into the Lower Lakes and then up the St Lawrence. Timing and progression are going to be important…wouldn’t take too much in what has been a progressive winter for this to be more progressive and suddenly have us more on the better side of the low. The GEFS currently presents a plethora of p-types (at various timing differences) across all of PA. So I’ll be keeping an eye on that since this is still in the 5-7 day range. With all that said, we are going to experience a moderating trend mid week next week (mainly Tues-Thur timeframe). 

Getting further into February, I really don’t see any reason to not have more chances at snow, even though we may have more changeable weather (ups and downs). We’ll continue to go as the Pac goes as the NAO/AO has generally been positive and continues to stay that way.The AO does dip negative for a time later next week, but generally speaking we don’t have an established blocking pattern in that realm. The big keys are the continued -WPO and neutral to negative EPO maintaining that Pac ridge and continuing to provide a cold source region that will continue to push cold air into the CONUS. I was watching the PNA as it is going to go negative some next week, which is why we moderate as ridging builds in the East. This is gonna be nowhere near the magnitude of the -PNA in December and it is forecast to quickly go back into positive territory some. 

The other thing I’m watching is the MJO. It is currently in the null phase (circle of death, etc).. basically right now it’s in a position where it’s not exerting a significant influence into the Mid-Latitudes. Which is fine.. the ECMWF pretty much keeps it there indefinitely. The JMA and NCEP stuff eventually get it into phase 3 (still a cold phase) and the NCEP spaghetti plot does show some potential of this to perhaps eventually run into 4 and so forth. With the other regular teleconnections staying pretty serviceable for now (esp on the Pac side) the only thing I really worry about is a new stronger MJO pulse running the 4-5-6 gauntlet… especially in a full blown mature Nina. Something like that would obviously likely ensure our overall chances of winter weather are much lower during such a period. Fortunately, A. That’s not really showing currently, just a concern of mine and B. Even if this were to start showing say within the next 6-10 days it would be probably be after mid Feb before we saw any sensible pattern changes. So going forward, yea we’re not going to win all the storms and probably warm up here and there.. but there remains plenty of cold in the pattern and plenty of chances down the road at least the next couple weeks, IMO. 

Some updated thoughts on the pattern. The quoted above was the large post I made back on Jan 28th for reference and review. First off that was at the time, in the 5-7 day range of what was for most in here our messy waste of QPF last week…but it did remind  me that the event at that range had started on most modeling as a mostly rain event and a more pronounced warm-up. And while it did end up mostly rain for roughly SE half of PA, it did end up being more focused on the second wave and cold did get into western/northern PA to make for a half decent ice and snow event by the end. And western PA cleaned up some Friday with the remaining deform snow.

Anyways, main focus on this post is the pattern going forward. There’s really no big changes to my overall thoughts, especially the portions of my quoted post I bolded. We really are going as the Pac goes in terms of the teleconnections with a +NAO/AO. This week, we have troughing over Alaska which cuts the Siberian connection and also turns the source region a bit more Pacific-ish even though there is still solid Pac ridging. Additionally. we have a pretty established +AO. Both of these things will act to evacuate true arctic air out of the CONUS. Still, our region will have seasonable chilly weather with a couple bouts of days with somewhat above average temps. Other issue with these points is the storm track. Clearly a northern branch dominated week with several clipper waves running it. However, the pattern alignment has the mean storm track taking the clipper lows fairly well north of PA. The result of this becomes the aforementioned bouts of above average surface temps with the milder temperature pattern and W/SW flow ahead of the clipper systems. This also usually presents downsloping issues east of the mountains in said W/SW flow with precip. Definitely a week we could have benefited from even just a little bit of help from the NAO/AO realm. 

Next chance of a bigger system appears to be roughly near Valentines Day, but there’s several issues to overcome there. Lot’s of different moving pieces is one issue, especially in the northern branch. That has been a theme for the last month or so since we’ve established the colder regime back in early January. Timing a phase with a less robust southern stream and associated issues with ejecting energy out of the SW US/Mexico is another. Still a chance to be be watched though as we do set up a western ridge/eastern trough for this timeframe, but currently it looks too progressive and not enough dig and interaction of features…  with progression likely enhanced more given +NAO/AO. These are common Nina issues which by the way, we are still in presently (NDJ ONI average was -1.0ºC). Despite that, some of the US precip patterns have been very non Nina-like, especially in the Pac NW. A drier California is a pretty common thing but the Pac NW usually has above average precip in a Nina. They’ve been shut out the past month just like California has. I suspect that has had to do with the anomalous and very persistent northern Pac/western US ridging.. which has helped us stay in the game for systems (with not a lot of luck locally) and have provided us with the colder Eastern US version of the La Niña state temp-wise. 

The MJO has indeed tended more towards Phase 2/3 in the last week, and is forecast to remain in that realm at least in the interim.. esp on NCEP guidance. Those phases are “colder” phases, and the trend has staved off my worry of a renewed pulse running 4-5-6 during the business end of February. Something like that would have likely helped move along the type of wholesale pattern change in the Pacific that would have taken us out of commission in the East. The Pacific teleconnections still look workable, with the EPO/WPO trending back negative. Those two tellys are starting out neutral (WPO) to  positive (EPO)  this week as part of what had been a forecasted brief reversal from both being persistently negative. And you can see how we quickly lose the really cold air out of the pattern in the CONUS with that brief reversal. The cons are no help from the NAO/AO (pegged at a solid positive), and some trending toward a negative PNA toward week two (esp on Euro and CMC ensembles). So that’ll be interesting to see what that does if it comes to fruition. I suspect a negative PNA would instigate more storminess and precip across the CONUS but could put us on the wrong side of it if it’s too strong given +NAO/AO. This all boils down to me having the opinion that the second half of the month could be a good bit more active than what the first half is presently shaping up to be (sans the Feb 4th event).. but with that could come more swings in temp anomalies and less persistent cold. That’s nothing really groundbreaking for how the second half of February typically goes, but the chance should be there to cash in on something. 

25 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

92 had a 10-12 inch storm before Christmas? 

Yup, there’s also part 1-9 of coverage of this on Youtube, since you guys have been reminiscing about old school TWC. Jeff Morrow traveled west from H-burg to Breezewood to cover the snow. 

This was a huge storm, especially between here and Pittsburgh but this area had about 2 feet. State College had 18” despite turning to mix/rain mid-storm. 

2 hours ago, Atomixwx said:

Took a trip into Clearfield. Roads are garbage and it's still snowing. Winter here is just so radically different from what years in the LSV conditioned me to experience. 

This area back here usually does mix and ice events like I’d imagine Worcester, MA does New England nor’easters. Even with how quiet the next week looks you’ll probably see some more snow up on the plateau with the NW flow. 

My totals were approx 0.1” of ice, a T of sleet and a T of snow… oh and 2.02” of regular rain.

State of the snowpack, that snow hole can stay on my neighbor’s side of the tree line haha.

One thing I forgot to mention last night was Penn State Main Campus actually cancelled classes today for this event. You could imagine all the “back in my day” comments that came from that decision. 

Woke up a bit ago to freezing rain and sleet here and temp down to 31ºF. Never thought I’d be so glad to hear the pingers. Driveway, deck, and cars are pretty froze up. There doesn’t appear to be a big amount of ice in the trees. Rain gauge is at 2.02”, this was one heck of a rain event. Looks like the local rivers are going to just barely miss flood stage. I think the only thing that kept this from being a full fledge flooding event was a lot of the snow pack staying in tact. 

39 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

15 miles down the road it's 56.

Yea that’s quite a difference, just using the official stations you can see that stations like LNS and THV have a pretty decent southerly breeze and that even extends up to Reading too. If I’m being honest I think York, Lancaster, possibly Adams, and those few LWX counties Hagerstown east are probably the rest of the way cooked for this event and I wouldn’t be surprised if they get dropped from the advisory. Ice accruals reaching a tenth and more I think likely stays Harrisburg north and west and probably more so out of the city.

The issue in the LSV is if the precip shuts off before the cold air can get down there, which is looking more likely. HRRR shuts off precip there there by about 17-18z and the cold’s too late. NAM hangs a few hours longer and does get some measurable mixed down into the southern counties. The new 0z HREF still supports the advisory as well but it may end up being too cold overnight vs the current ground truth with the warmer temps that snuck up into the southern tier. 

Down to 34ºF, moderate rain. The rainfall portion has definitely exceeded my expectations today around here in terms of totals. Gauge is at 1.42” for the event now. 

Looking at the Mesowest obs, the 32ºF line is starting to ooze under the I-80 corridor from the north. About an hour or two ago the nearest <32ºF ob I saw from that direction was Coffin Rock haha. The temp here is now near 35ºF and the NNE breeze has ramped up some gusting up to 15mph, so the low level cold air advection is in action. Been watching the HRRR and I think temps could be to a point to start supporting ZR here a couple hours before it’s been advertising it here (by about 10pm or so vs after midnight). Guess we’ll see. 

Temp has been slowly starting to fall, down to right at 36ºF currently. Since midnight it has only ranged from 34.3 - 37.4ºF today. Winds are light NNE.

About the only good thing from this whole mess is I’m finally getting to see how my rain gauge is working. That’s at 0.89” for the event so far. 

49 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

Looks like Pittsburgh and Mt Holly have added some flood watches into the mix. This would be a better question for our board red-tagger, but I wonder if it's rained or may rain enough for parts of the Juniata to get a similar treatment in some of the more vulnerable places like the Aughwick in Shirleysburg? 

 

For you Cumberland valley folks, how high are the waters there? Any concerns about the Conodoguinet or Swatara in spots?

 

I could certainly at least see a few flood advisories pop up this evening for the smaller tributary and poor drainage type stuff. From what I saw around here before dark there was a pretty good response with run-off and most of the small streams and drainage channels are snow/ice clogged. It’s either doing that or just absorbing into the snowpack.. but definitely not into the frozen ground. Unless there’s any ice jam type issue I think the bigger streams/rivers will be okay, although all those rivers you mention are forecast to get at or near caution stage. Main stem Susquehanna looks to be only a modest rise. 

3 hours ago, Atomixwx said:

I have a five inch pond of water sitting on top of a solid sheet of ice by my front door. I cannot WAIT to see how this plays out as the cold air approaches. 

This is pretty much the condition of every non-paved driveway around here today despite mid 30s temps, and we haven’t even got to the actual winter storm part of the system yet haha.

Quote

Snow totals continue to drop off farther to the south toward
I-80 with 0.5-1.5" of mainly sleet (counted as snow) expected
along this corridor. The primary fzra/icing zone continues to
be focused between US-6 and US-22 or over the interior 2/3 of
the CWA. We were keen to temper top-down derived ice totals due
to the expectation of more sleet in the transition zone and
relatively mild/above freezing sfc and road temps prior to the
changeover from rain to icy mix. In other words, we think fzra
accretion will be limited by preceding mild temps and moderate
intensity rates. We are still concerned about a rain to heavy
sleet scenario which could be just as or even more impactful
than warning level snow.
.

That was out of part of CTP’s morning discussion. I agree to a point, you have to be careful with modeled freezing rain as actual observed ice accrual is very sensitive to drop size, rain intensity, surface temps, etc etc. 0.75” of conditional freezing rain QPF on x model doesn’t often translate to 0.75” thick ice on the trees. With all that said, my big thing about this particular event the last couple days is I feel there has been sufficient support to reach 0.25” ice in a good portion of this swath of the CWA mentioned above on that AFD snippet. I honestly expected watches to be issued yesterday on all the counties at least down to I-80 given that support plus this being a multi-faceted potential high impact event between the combo of near warning to warning level ice plus sleet and snow..And they’re still worried about this rain to heavy sleet thing too.

As far as surface and road temps, I agree with that in the Sus Valley but most of the interior 2/3rd of the CWA between US 6 and US 22 has a snowpack and frozen ground from the long stretch of cold weather. Some of the secondary roads around here froze up early this morning despite temps above 32 since about mid day yesterday. Plus if sleet does in fact mix in sooner, that’s just going to cool surfaces faster anyways. And further down in the Sus Valley I was surprised first thing this morning that it initially wasn’t included when advisories finally did get issued. I guess I don’t understand why it took so long. A T of ice warrants an advisory, and that has looked likely even in the further reaches of the LSV for awhile. 

Just my thoughts, I’m not hating on the NWS by any means. Moral of the story is this type of event is very difficult and frustrating to forecast. 

2 hours ago, canderson said:

Man you keep your house COLD. @Itstrainingtimeneeds to step up. 

Haha I normally keep heat around 68ºF or so in the main parts of the house and I can fire up the wood pellet fireplace to warm it up more without bumping up the regular heat.