MAG5035

I think the 3k NAM’s ice map might be about the most reasonable ZR map I’ve seen all day. Since the NAM seems to be the one seeing the sleet the most, it makes sense that it paints the ridges in 0.25”+ while having less ice in the valleys, simply because that extra 1000-1500’ to fall and refreeze into anchored down CAD at the surface.

I know it seems like I’m conducting the watch/warning train in here but I’m also not expecting a widespread excessive damaging ice event either given the depth of the CAD that should be present (more sleet). My point was just that a good portion of C-PA has more than a reasonable chance of seeing 0.25”+, hence maybe issuing a watch product when there was still 24-36hrs prior to event start. 

I think the only part of central PA that actually does see something more excessive on the order of >0.5”+ is the Laurel’s. It’s going to be a rough go up there. 

12 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

 

@MAG5035
Mt. Holly & Binghamton have Watches, but I guess if you cross the border from Berks to Lebanon or from Luzerne to Schuylkill county, no Watch type weather to worry about!

Yea I don’t know it’s whatever I guess…like I mentioned this morning I don’t know why you don’t put a blanket watch out for at least a big chunk of the CWA and go warning/advisory as needed when you see where the sig ice swath is looking to set up in the near term. It better warns the public IMO. Most non-weenies aren’t going to read the HWO haha.  It was even mentioned in the discussion this morning about issuing watches/warnings even if it’s just short of criteria due to the impact on roads. I mean the model support for warning criteria as well as WPC probs has been there for at least issuing a watch for the potential over a good bit more of the area than they have.

At any rate we’re less than 24hrs from this starting and It’s likely to at least be a higher impact advisory event for most. 1-2”+ of sleet followed by 0.1-0.2” of ice isn’t gonna be much better on the roads than up to an inch of sleet and 0.2-0.4”+ of ice. 

11 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I certainly don't want to speak in his place, but he has previously mentioned that he thought that wintry weather was over for the Lanco area other than some nuisance events. That might not have been his exact wording, but close. 

I thought it was a bold way to go, personally. 

I do remember reading that previous post and I didn’t really read it as him suggesting winter was over in that post. I’ll have to find it again at some point. I mean it is a fair take now that we’ll be entering March in 5 days, especially in the LSV. But aside from trying to hash out what the MJO is going to do, I see the EPO/WPO forecast to take another dive second week of March and now the NAO/AO being forecast to at least neutralize in that timeframe as well. Yea there’s going to be more spring fling to be had the next couple weeks and AC’s cranking and @candersonis going to be doing more planting and garden prep haha… but you get those teleconnections lined up and start getting shortened wavelengths with the seasonal transition in the right spot and suddenly you might be talking about maybe not another wintry mess, but a clean snowstorm. March is going to March, aka be unpredictable. 

11 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

It's 69.4 on the station...

Enjoy it haha, that colds coming fast. It’s down to 35ºF here. 

1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Maybe the guy from MU will be right again after all? He essentially called winter off for us folks a couple of weeks ago. (he's also referring to tomorrow night's event as the "final" winter event):

This month may very well be remembered for the dramatic temperature rollercoaster ride that began on February 1 and will continue through February 28. We'll end up seeing high temperatures reach or exceed the 60-degree mark on 5 different occasions (including tomorrow), but have also experienced two days with highs in the upper 20s. To illustrate how dramatic the ups-and-downs have been, the high on President's Day (February 21) reached 64 degrees following a bitterly cold low of 16 on Sunday morning (February 20). Right now, we're still immersed in one of the "crests" on the rollercoaster, but the "dip" that's right around the corner (Thursday/Thursday night) may set the stage for one last wintry mess.

Is he talking about final for the month of February though? Sun/Mon is still in February and that potential event seems to be by the wayside. 

There’s some conflicting signals, but given what I see overall teleconnection wise the next couple weeks there’s no way in heck I’d just call winter off after Friday. 

It’s scrutinizing time. Here’s the Euro at 42 hours.

1 hr ptype

2m temps

925mb (3000ft) temps

850mb 

What part of all that would make one think such a widespread area of freezing rain in southern PA? The -3 to -6ºC 925mb temps alone easily suggest to me sleetbomb and the 850 level isn’t even evacuated out Harrisburg and north at that point. The p-type map is really suspect to me if those low level temps in fact end up that cold. 

6 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

Very reasonable takes in here.  It’s tough to get real impact at 31/32 degrees as we’ve seen so many times in the past.  Each situation is different, would like one to trend towards more wintry weather (of course!).  The ICON and GFS were noticeably colder at 12Z for whatever it’s worth.  

The timing of this event being mostly Thur evening into Fri morning favors freezing rain accrual with say 30-31 temps, esp if it starts as and/or mixes with sleet. If this were primarily coming through during the day we are getting within that time of the year where solar would have an impact on such things.

14 minutes ago, canderson said:

CTP’s impact map goes along with my thinking. Minimal roadway problems in the LSV. 
 

I generally agree for main roads if freezing rain is the main mix p-type, but if it starts as a sleet bomb there will definitely be roadway issues… which I don’t think that map product even considers. That map is generated off of whatever CTP and other forecast CWA’s have input into their grid forecasts and those impacts are calculated off of certain criteria (ice, snow, blowing snow, flash freeze, ground blizzard, snow load), which can be separated out on the WPC site. You can see the difference between grids for CTP and PIT. 

6 minutes ago, paweather said:

Is there a cold front coming through?

Oh yea, gotta have cold air if we’re going to get a wintry mess tomorrow eve haha. Pretty wide ranging temps across PA currently.

Temps have started to steadily fall off since about 7am this morning, going from 57ºF to currently 42ºF. It cracked 60ºF for a while just after midnight last night, just your usual 35 degree above average Feb night.

0.44” was the measured rain total from yesterday.

3 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Great discussion from CTP this morning.

To me this is like the last time when it comes to headlines. Consideration of watch/warnings for sub criteria is specifically stated in that AFD considering the combo impact of accumulating snow/sleet and freezing rain. As it should be, so why not just issue the watch? There definitely is model support for the “potential” of warning level ice over a decent portion of C-PA. Personally for starters I think watches should match up with the ones BGM issued across the state I-80 north and tie in to the Laurels counties plus a few more central counties. Could argue just issuing the whole CWA under one if they’re going the impact over criteria route. The Sus Valley is going to get decent sleet/freezing rain up front too. The northern tier probably has the toughest case for a watch. Some of those counties require 0.5” of ZR for a warning, which probably isn’t happening up there and it’s likely going to mix too much to get near warning criteria snow in most spots. Just a lot of different scenarios to consider and pretty much all of them in this setup are pretty high impact regardless of thresholds so I just have the opinion of issue the watch and transition to advisory as needed. I think it alerts the general public better that way. 

I see this storm playing out one of two ways. One is you have more frozen (likely mostly sleet), which 1-2” or so (or even just an inch) of that is a high impact event in itself when it comes to roadways. That changes to freezing rain and a glaze of ice, which could still approach warning criteria in some areas anyways. That’s a pretty high impact event. Or two, deeper warmth aloft floods in (a theme this winter) and you have some sleet and a boat load of freezing rain over a pretty widespread part of C-PA. Also a high impact event. And this potential is much more viable than the Feb 3/4 event was. We’re not racing against time with bleeding cold into an ongoing rainstorm. That will be in place tonight. Placement and strength of the high pressure is very good for CAD and as I mentioned last night it doesn’t get moved out of the way.  This has a pretty traditional drawn out ice storm look. And no I don’t like either of those scenarios. Southern stream waves are at a premium this winter, and here we are wasting a bunch of QPF again.

With the snow aspect, I’ll be honest.. I think CTP’s current map is too optimistic. Models have generally locked into tracking the primary low into PA. So 4-6” probably stays above US 6 (maybe even out of PA completely) and the rest of the accum area is 1-3”. I think sleet is going to have a bigger role than snow when if comes to frozen. Just too much warmth aloft. Getting some snow out of this event heavily depends on if we generate WAA precip earlier tomorrow. The NAM had been the most aggressive with that, but the 12z looks like the other models, waiting until about 0z tomorrow and keeping initial precip mostly south of the M/D.

I think the models are starting to respond to the high pressure that will be in place to our north in terms of CAD. No change to my opinion I made a couple days ago that I thought this was the best setup in terms of high placement we’ve seen this winter. You can see on all models that the high moves a bit but generally stays in place in southern Quebec during the passage of this system. It doesn’t get shoved east out of the way. What would be really nice is just a little bit more resistance from that high to force the low under PA. Then I think we all could be in business for more front end WAA snow. 

As I see it currently, I think everyone sees at least advisory level ice/mix and not just a T either. The opening blast of WAA precip probably comes in as sleet or snow (dependent on intensity and timing). Then comes trying to hash out the different corridors of p-type. I-80 north stands the best chance of seeing several inches of snow/sleet and some ice but potentially having a more frozen event. The central counties below I-80 in the ridge and valley region (including the Laurels) stand the best chance of seeing warning level freezing rain and/or a stripe of more significant sleet somewhere in there. If this continues to tend colder it could shift the significant freezing rain down into the Laurel’s and southern tier ridge and valley with more frozen precip in the rest of that particular region. The Sus Valley probably sees a combo of everything (even snow) but doesn’t add up to warning criteria. It is possible though, especially H-burg north. That’s my current best take on this. 

3 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Lol that’s why I’m confused with this storm up here…is it just rain or a decent sleet/ice event? Euro has big ice all the way to N MD.

The only thing I’m wondering about in your neck of the woods is when CTP issues the watches and what combo of impacts is going to make up that watch lol. 

The 12z Euro just gave IPT 4.3” of snow prior to changeover to ice. 

These popped up on my picture memories, what a difference a year makes haha. I took these a few miles up the road on this date last year. For today day though, there’s just a few piles around (the yard is completely clear) and the high here was 62ºF.

14 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I was just going to comment that a LOT of that was sleet. 

It’s actually showing more conditional freezing rain than sleet. Usual disclaimers apply, especially with the freezing rain map, but I certainly don’t think this is going to be a non-event for anyone in here. It’s definitely going to be messy up front. 

Main thing, again, is the GFS now dragging the low pressure into PA. It has to get under PA for more frozen (snow/sleet) vs  sleet to ice/rain…simple as that. The early NAM take showed that two distinct wave look a lot of guidance has been showing, with the weaker first wave tracking a weak low south of PA and more frozen up front (and obviously out of range yet for the main wave). That two-pronged approach is a fairly common thing with these longer duration mix events and probably the best chance for any front end snow prior to the mid levels being too warm. Unless this goes back south. 

5 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

@MAG5035

What are your current thoughts for the Thursday/Friday event in CTP?

Well I’m not super thrilled about it, but mainly because I am so tired of seeing the non-fringing systems being mixing events this winter. 

I do think this thing presents a better ice threat than the Feb 3-4 debacle. You have the system pressing an established high pressure to the north (which is stronger/better placed) instead of trying to draw the cold air in mid-late storm. There’s enough time between the Tuesday rainer and the Thur/Fri system to set the edge and establish good CAD. Also for the sun angle queens (I’m one of them in this case) the system comes in mainly overnight Thursday. That point is really only relevant for any ZR accrual potential. So overall I think the potential for the whole area to see at least see an advisory level mess is quite high. And as it looks currently, yea there’s probably a period of plain rain for the LSV (esp below the turnpike) somewhere late in the system. I don’t think plain rain is going to dominate this time though. 

The big question right now is dominant mix type (sleet vs freezing rain) and if we can see more frozen (snow/sleet). Models didn’t trend that way today and aren’t looking like they are with the 0z suite so far. Ensembles have mainly supported more mix, even the GEFS when the op had a more frozen solution. I Mentioned last night we need to get the surface low pretty well under PA. Given the strength of the high progged, it’s certainly doable, not to mentioned models have been showing some attempts at a coastal secondary low. Regardless, sneaking into PA isn’t going to cut it, so this needs to find a way to trend south for more significant snow/sleet in C-PA. A lot of guidance has kind of separated out an initial wave of precip prior to the main wave as well. It’s probably with that where snow can be scored unless we get said notable trends south the next couple days. I’m usually pretty bullish on the deeper CAD winning these scenarios, especially back in this area.. but the tendency this winter has seemed to be the opposite. We’ll see what happens. I want to get into mesoscale range to see what those models do with this.  

4 hours ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

Was there any damage around town?   Going off the Beaufort scale you’re looking at uprooted trees and minor structural damage.    I had around 15 trees blown over at course and I’m estimating 60 to 65 mph gust 

There actually weren’t too many issues damage wise, there were a couple power outages here and there but nothing in the neighborhood. I was trying to review the hard data, it data-logs on the console once a minute so it looks like the gust occurred in between minutes. It still notes the highest wind gust for the day. The highest that got logged for the data were a couple shots above 40. I’m sure there were probably more than that since the station itself reports wind back every 5 seconds.

My guess is that big gust was probably a brief one off at the time of the afternoon that probably had the best mixing with diurnal heating while most other high gusts were in the 40-45 mph range. Otherwise there would have definitely been issues with frequent gusts say in the 55+ range. Still learning the station and how well it does. It seems to be pretty accurate overall. The rain gauge logged 0.90” total from the rain event Thur-Fri.

3 hours ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

This is typical of home stations. Just never able to site them in a location that gets good exposure for wind, too much surface friction everywhere. The best I’ve seen is my buddy who installed his about six feet above his roof haha, and even with that yesterday was the first 40mph gust he has recorded in the year it has been up. 

I installed an Ambient WS-5000 (the model with the sonic wind sensor) back on Jan 14th and I had been wondering how it was going to do with a decent wind event. I considered mounting it at the highest point of the house on my center chimney that’s not used anymore but decided to high mount it off the shed. 

This pic is looking in a NW direction so I was wondering if it was going to get shielded some by the house. I have a pretty open yard but there is a tree line on one side and houses so I felt this was the best compromise for positioning the station. The highest gust it recorded prior to yesterday was Friday’s wind advisory event which was like 39mph, which I thought was reasonable because I never really had advisory type winds here for that one. Yesterday though, it registered a 42mph wind gust during the snow squall passage and then later in the afternoon a sustained 40mph/63mph gust. So while the siting for wind isn’t completely ideal, it apparently is exposed enough to record bigger gusts. That and I guess I mounted it well enough to withstand at least 63mph winds haha. 

2 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Check out the 0z GFS...

The distance between big snow dump and heartbreak is about the same as the distance from Tamaqua to the lower end of Harrisburg lol. Although in the rest of the LSV where there’s not big snow it printed out 2-4” of sleet. 

I haven’t really gotten into this potential the last few days but it’s probably time I should start diving into it. Been waiting to see what it looks like more in the mid-range. Going back earlier this past week I really wasn’t sure there was going to be much favorable this coming week but I suppose the second half of this month is working out pretty close to how I laid it out back in my last longer pattern post back on the 7th (changeable but still a chance for opportunities). At any rate, I’m not getting too hung up on snow/ice maps for now with this threat later next week. Track of the low needs to stay pretty decently under PA to secure a more/mostly frozen outcome for the forum majority. Anything else is going to be a mess. I haven’t really commented much on the threat but I have been watching and I think the thing that sticks out to me is that the high being progged to the north IMO looks to be the best presentation I’ve seen for an event all winter so far (strong and well placed). So I think chances are pretty good that this is going to be some kind of a longer duration wintry event. All the other details regard p-type/amount are going to be a crapshoot as it always is. 

I had to leave for the day right after the snow squall ended this morning, which best estimate I could get was about an inch. This apparently happened at 336pm this afternoon and it came with a 40.3mph sustained. 

Attn: @canderson lol 

It’s here, absolutely insane right now. There was a 41 mph wind gust after this pic.

4 minutes ago, anotherman said:

The front is insane.

I didn’t get the crazy winds tapped down back here with the frontal passage but I already have a wind driven snow blowing around outside and 33ºF. Temp has dropped almost 25 degrees in under 3 hours. 

Front is going to be arriving here pretty directly. Very pronounced on radar, and that’s 70-90+ mph aloft on velocity immediately preceding too.

53 minutes ago, canderson said:

Wild they’re that high when everywhere else has been a bit lower. I understand north side might get stronger gusts but that’s interesting looking at other station. 
 

CTP’s new discussion mentions this. 

Yea I mean to be honest I was busy this afternoon and evening and didn’t even realize the wind advisory started so early at 6pm as I thought the wind was a more overnight thing. Winds are definitely screaming aloft which is evident on CCX velocity and on the time-lapse video I added on my previous post.  The cold front is past Pittsburgh but still in western PA, so I’m going to reserve judgement on winds until i get the frontal passage here and just after.  

It has reached 57ºF with the winds starting to ramp up. KAOO is really ripping with the latest ob S 40mph G51mph. Nothin like that here yet, and station so far has a high gust of 24 mph. 0.78” is my rain total so far. 

Update from the earlier observation post, find the spot where the warm winds did finally mix down earlier this evening.

Here’s a roughly 1 min or so time lapse of the clouds screaming by.

So far it is only 44ºF here currently, after being near 50ºF prior to initial precip arrival this morning. Obs show a wind shift at the temp drop. Classic trick here in this valley, bleeding cool air from the north/northeast under a stable boundary layer. Probably won’t see the big temp spike until the stronger southerly winds mix down.