MAG5035

Canadian has the storm but much slower than the GFS, thus allowing the high pressure to position too far east and have maybe an interior ice set up on retreating cold with a primary low heading to the lakes instead of a redeveloping coastal. One thing about the Canadian progged high is it is much stronger (~1048mb). Something is definitely afoot here in this Thanksgiving weekend timeframe. It seems models all have the pressing high that probably eliminates the continuation of whatever moderating trend towards average we have around mid-week next week, and they all currently have some kind of system... So we’ll see if that continues.

Funny I just made a post about the whole coastal thing last week, since the popular opinion for this winter is a reduced threat of them. The 12z GFS scenario sort of illustrates the potential I alluded to in that post if we do line things up for a coastal.. especially in the early part of the winter. 

On 11/10/2022 at 3:26 PM, MAG5035 said:

I agree to a point with the reduced Nor’easter threat but SSTs in the Northwest Atlantic are significantly above average (as they have been this time of the year the last however many years it seems). The Nina influence may not be overly conducive to an active southern jet and a train of coastals but if we do get a setup for one, and we usually do a couple times a winter even in less favorable overall patterns.. those +SST’s would figure to be a factor into really winding one up. If we get a fast starting winter on the front end I think this would be the best chance for us to score something like that early since we’re further inland from the coastal plain (that region can be too warm with the +SSTs and a low that tracks too close to the coast in an early season storm).  

Okay, now we’re pinging here. We’ll see if the snow fights back with some of the last heavier parts of the precip shield but that 5.5” might end up being max depth. 

5.5” now, really close to verifying a warning. The last heavy burst was also very close to sounding the pinger alert with really rimed stuff mixed in. In a lighter area at the moment (still light snow)

Just measured 4.7” with continued moderate to heavy rates. Some sign on radar of mixing trying break into this area from the SW, but the best precip rates are also about to move on from here as well. The damage is done though either way, what a nice snowfall event. 

Heavy snow right now with 2.5” on the ground as well. It’s went from a more variable rate and occasional burst of half dollar flakes to that classic mid-storm flake size (smaller but piling up) Temp steady near 31ºF and most if not all roads are caved.

3-4” seems like a pretty big likelihood at this point here. Starting to wonder if this overachieves and takes a crack at 6”. 

Update:

1.4”, 30.7/30°F, and moderate rate. There’s been some nice heavy bursts of snow at times.

39 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

so by stuff....

do you mean white stuff...

or wet stuff.....

Inquiring minds wanna know.

Sorry lol, definitely snow. Pretty steady light to moderate and starting to lay on the grass at home.

I’m out doing some errands. Top of Wopsy is 28° and it was already laying easy up there and blowing around with roads starting to cave. 31-32° down here in town so not quite to caving roads yet.

About 20min ago on top of Wopsy (~2400’+)

Steadier stuff has arrived, light right now. Temps right around 32ºF.

For those that were wondering, it does appear they have CCX (State College) radar up for the event today.

Quote

.EQUIPMENT...
KCCX radar is temporarily back in operation for today and
tonight. KCCX will be offline again 11/16 and/or 11/17 as the
backup generator and electrical system at the site are upgraded.
This upgrade and refurbishment is part of the WSR-88D Service
Life Extension Program (SLEP

Flurries here, it’s looking to get going pretty soon. Temp and dewpoint just a hair under 32/25°F.

Yard is ready to go

Down to 24.6ºF here. Been busy today getting the yard the rest of the way cleaned up, putting the riding mowers in the storage garage and bringing the snowblower back to the house today. I’d say there’s a half decent chance of being able to use it here. I’m definitely excited to see some early season synoptic snow. Given the look of the forecast the rest of the week, if this advisory type event materializes here.. it’s likely to stick around for a bit. 

Models are generally on board but a couple differences, especially with the 3k NAM being the warmest. A lot of that QPF is being generated as freezing rain on that. I think this is a pretty cut and dry snow vs rain situation, where the main slug of WAA precip cools the column to allow for snow on a pretty widespread part of the area. ZR impacts likely come after the main shield of precip lifts north, and I think that will be mainly relegated to the central ridges in minor amounts.

Main things to figure out IMO are how much of the Sus Valley gets involved with seeing a period of accumulating snow, and top end amounts in the central counties. I’d say H-burg could go either way with at least seeing some snow stick or perhaps seeing a more notable period of accumulating snow (1-2” variety). York/Lancaster and that part of the LSV a little bit more in question. It may mix down that way but not sure about much in the way of accumulations. As for the other point with top end accums, I currently see this easily being a widespread 2-4 event in the central counties (JST-AOO-UNV-IPT), with a chance at some 5-6” at elevation on some of the ridges. Also noteworthy, it’s one of those cases the models are putting out bigger accumulations via the straight 10-1 snow maps vs the Kuchera method. Looking at thermals, the column looks good from a standpoint of supporting snow in that 4-6hr period when the best precip comes through… but not so much in terms of ideal snow growth. Still though, I think 10:1 is attainable when talking snow crystal growth. Marginal modeled temps at the surface and near surface level are likely what’s bringing Kuchera numbers down some, and I think the area that changes to snow and sees the best rates with the WAA slug (central counties most likely) will ultimately be a bit colder than modeled and not have much trouble accumulating snow. 

One other thing, not thrilled about having to track this event tomorrow with CCX radar down for that maintenance/upgrade lol. It figures that after what seemed like 30-45 days of dry weather that the scheduled 7 day maintenance period would see a significant rain storm and then the first widespread winter wx event of the season in that timeframe. 

Surprised CTP doesn’t even have any flood advisory products up. Scanner app has lit up with all sorts of flooding issues in the usual trouble spots in the Altoona and surrounding area.  Up to 2.89” on the rain gauge. Had a max rate of about 1.7”/ hour at one point. 

Heavy rain being registered on the weather station at home. Also pressure down to 996mb

1.32”/hr rate and 2.2” total

Re: The 70s temps and near 70 dewpoints in the LSV, one has to remember the source region of this event which is the remnants of a tropical system and the associated warmth and humidity being drawn directly up from the tropics via southerly flow by the approaching frontal boundary. A relatively rare set up for nearly Mid-November since tropical systems much less a low end landfalling hurricane being drawn up the East Coast don’t come along very often this time of the year. 

This is very evident looking at PWAT anomalies, as the true tropical source region has had PWATs in the 1.5-2” inch range during this event. That’s good for being in the +3 to 5 sigma range for this time of the year (a highly anomalous event). The anomalies associated with the back end pushing into western and central PA currently are even greater than that. In addition to the warmth and humidity, there’s likely to be some overachieving rain totals this evening via torrential downpours as this frontal boundary pushes and brings the remnant core of Nicole up through PA. 

1.15” is the total on the rain gauge at home so far.

Im reporting from camp over in Huntingdon county where it has been equally as rainy.

I’ll be updating on the creek level later on. 

20 minutes ago, paweather said:

Cutter

Boy that’s a major difference between that map and WeatherBell’s. Here’s the same 6hr frame from WB

Looking at the 850 and 925’s, there is support for frozen at least up front (in support of the Weatherbell version) but the parent 850 low also goes NW of PA on this run. 

I’ll say it, I like the look of this potential Tuesday night system being an early season wintry event for a decent sized chunk of C-PA. Certainly the interior counties but perhaps some of the LSV as well. Decent cold (for November) set in place by today/tonight’s system preceding and a system from the Gulf attacking a fairly strong Canadian high that slides to our north as the system heads into our region. 

QPF hasn’t looked overly prolific on most guidance but given the Gulf of Mexico moisture source it could trend wetter. 12z GFS just coming out for example has a stronger system like the Euro but more of a defined Miller B evolution.. which probably isn’t ideal for the LSV.

I’m not sure this would be the caliber of a November 2018 but certainly at least some kind of light to perhaps moderate event is on the table. Either way, we have serious discussion of some wintry business inside of 5 days already in mid November so that’s a good thing. 

On 11/2/2022 at 9:39 AM, canderson said:

CTP is hiring for a meteorologist. 
 

@MAG5035

Thanks for the head’s up on this, I’ve been slowly catching up with being quite busy this fall and not having much time to check in on here. That posting is still open for 4 more days so I’m glad I caught your post today haha. 

5 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

You don't have to read too far down to get the boo news:

I think the biggest thing that would concern me for a possible detriment to a average or above average snow is the moisture aspect over temps given the very dry October into first part of November we just had. I’m worried about a longer term below average precip regime persisting. Hopefully, this much needed rainfall tomorrow associated with the significant frontal system pulling Nicole up will be a catalyst to get us into a wetter pattern.

Otherwise yea I think we will see the usual Nina issues with perhaps more cutters than we’d like to see and some big temp swings. We tracking at a moderate Nina right now which is forecast to continue that way through at least the first half of the winter so there definitely will be some influence there. What happens with regard to the dominant pattern in the mid-latitudes and Arctic region (NAO/AO/ Pacific, etc) will determine whether we see much of the “colder” or “warmer” La Niña effects (or both). Again, my worry snow wise is having the cold but not the active wet pattern to go with it.  

I agree to a point with the reduced Nor’easter threat but SSTs in the Northwest Atlantic are significantly above average (as they have been this time of the year the last however many years it seems). The Nina influence may not be overly conducive to an active southern jet and a train of coastals but if we do get a setup for one, and we usually do a couple times a winter even in less favorable overall patterns.. those +SST’s would figure to be a factor into really winding one up. If we get a fast starting winter on the front end I think this would be the best chance for us to score something like that early since we’re further inland from the coastal plain (that region can be too warm with the +SSTs and a low that tracks too close to the coast in an early season storm).  

Here with the first snow/roads slightly caved pic of the season. This is a few miles west of Ebensburg in Cambria Co currently.

Also I promise I’ll be back to posting more often soon. I’ve been really busy lately.

1 hour ago, Voyager said:

$64 question. Does any of it have a chance to make it to the eastern portion of State College's CWA or am I shit out of luck over here. The overcast just doesn't want to give up it's grip here.

I would imagine you’ll get a piece of the stuff that’s just east of State College, but likely what you said with maybe some heavier rain and thunder/lightning. Mixed layer CAPE is trying to build into eastern PA but there’s also a good amount of  CIN (convective inhibition) from the lingering cloud cover/much lower surface temps on that end of the state (not to mention current convection is shooting a lot of high clouds eastward. 

 Really surprised at the lack of initiation of convection in south central PA though (west of the Sus where the sun really broke out). I thought that to be a ticking time bomb this afternoon given parameters and approaching front. SPC did trim but maintain the tornado watch, likely a hat tip to said parameters which are still good, but I’m not as concerned as I was this afternoon. There was really a split in convection between the north central PA stuff and the more robust stuff sagging south just west of Pittsburgh.

This is definitely one of the better summertime significant severe/tornadic type setups I’ve seen recently around these parts, at least “on paper”. Lots of heat, high dewpoints (at or above 70), large CAPE, high LI, decent shear, BRN values supportive of discrete supercells, etc. The combination of these has all the composite indices (supercell, hail size, significant tornado parameters) very high today on the mesoanalysis.

The radar split is definitely notable right now, as the hole figures to translate into the portion of PA that has some of the best severe indices. With that said, the portion of PA between here and Harrisburg really needs to be watched for discrete cell action if it does fire up as the EHI values being generated there honestly concern me a bit. A 0-1km EHI of 1 is  enough for possible tornadoes. 4+ is significant. And the 0-3km values are stupid high. This ribbon does extend up into northern PA where current action (and the Elk County tornado warned cell) are moving towards. I’d also look for the Sus Valley to become more favorable with the late clearing this afternoon. 

0-1km EHI

0-3km EHI

Significant tornado parameter

Well, I obviously would have rather seen a storm like this in the frozen form in Dec-Feb but I did score some flooding pics. This was in the next valley over from Altoona (Sinking Valley). Definitely lots of runoff coming out of that valley. These flooding pics are from a minor tributary, not the river it eventually feeds into. 

Fortunately that heavy enhanced stuff did stay east this afternoon or this would have been a much more significant river flooding event around here. The local stuff is currently cresting mostly in the minor category.

Rain totals here at home are up to 3.71” for the event and also 5.07” for the week with the rain/thunderstorms we got Tues eve into Wed morning. That additional rain earlier in the week was likely a factor in why the Juniata basin was the more vulnerable area for this event. 

Continued light to moderate rainfall currently. 3.58” is the total rainfall so far as measured by my gauge (Ambient WS-5000 station). 2.7” through midnight yesterday and 0.88” so far today since midnight. A check of other stations on the network around town have similar amounts as well (generally within a couple tenths of my amount). It looks like CCX radar has been low balling its precip estimates with this event. It has seemed mostly like a very efficient type rainfall and I wonder if a different VCP setting would be more accurate in that regard.  Either way a really impressive synoptic event with the signature highly anomalous easterly fetch drawing in a boatload of moisture.. 

Minor flooding issues in the usual spots are ongoing, but definitely concerned this afternoon if that enhanced stuff lurking in between Harrisburg and Williamsport manages to back its way back into here. We’re at a point where a period of heavy rainfall is going to escalate flooding issues pretty quick. 

1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

Could see some 2-4" accums Altoona and west.   it has been impressive out there today.  I think 3-4 of our most wintery days have happened since March 1. 

I’m sure the higher Laurel’s ridges are racking some snow up with the strength of these squalls today. I probably would have added another couple inches here so far today if it was the dead of winter. I’m impressed that a good bit of yesterday’s snow is still on the ground. 

I’ll add that I have definitely been ready for the warmer seasons to take hold. The last several weeks have really reminded me of 2018. Most of that April was brutal too. 

Spring is going to return later this week but definitely not today haha. Getting whacked with a snow squall at the moment.