MAG5035

Euro EPS v. GEFS probs. They are really starting to see the storm now. 

These are 6”+ probs

Euro did come inside a bit today vs it’s 0z run, although I think the bigger difference was it was a good bit more expansive on the western side of the snowfall swath. It’s also very sharp with it’s changeover line, mainly snow to light rain and little mixing. Lot’s of time to resolve that track in that situation. I think most of the LSV would still see mostly snow in that scenario, just that it would slot out and since the storm is stacked at the point it’s coming through the Mid Atlantic into SE PA… it won’t be long before the cold air is fully entrained into the system (if it already isn’t). The big thing there is just that the best forcing and deform are further west in PA with the inside track. 

GFS has had a different evolution, more of a straight Miller B type with surface reflection carrying up into the OH Valley, allowing for more of a mixing mess but still actually looked marginally better today with more frozen as there is strong coastal development. Euro has a bit of a jump to the coast in the Deep South but it looks like more of an A evolution. Truly huge differences between that and the Euro are out in the middle of the country. GFS has over 30” of snow at the confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers where Euro has essentially 0”. 

Don’t suppose there will be too many complaints from most in the subforum about the 0z Euro. Swath is a bit west of 12z but still hammers C-PA. 3 and 6 hr QPF at 135hr shows one heck of a deform band sets up right up the Sus Valley thru IPT and into NY. 

0z vs 12z 

Looks like GFS is still way inside (a tad more than 18z) with mix getting pretty deep into central and the 985 low coming right up the gut of C-PA. Still front end for all and significant central and esp western PA. 

Guess we’ll see where the rest of the 0z guidance and ensembles set up. Def suspect of that GFS track, I mean it’s possible but certainly not common. 

44 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

It’s a little embarrassing for the model to have the outlier compared to its ensembles.   You would think just by law of avg, the op would blend somewhere in the middle of the ensembles 

I’m not much of an expert of how the computer models work but I do know the individual ensemble members operate on set preconditions/parameters that slightly differ to generate a forecast that accounts for uncertainty, or as NOAA defines it, 

Quote

The GEFS attempts to quantify the amount of uncertainty in a forecast by generating an ensemble of multiple forecasts, each minutely different, or perturbed, from the original observations.

When considering the Euro control run, the control run of an ensemble is the “best estimate” of the initial state of the atmosphere. I know the meteograms on WeatherBell plot out a GFS control but I’m not sure if that’s factored the same as the Euro EPS. 

At any rate simply based on the above, given lead time and the amount of moving parts with this…not to mention that the feature that ultimately becomes the system isn’t on shore yet, I’m not surprised there’s a lot of differing solutions within the ensembles.  I do think they took a significant step in seeing it vs the operational the last couple runs. Compared to the GEFS, the 12z Euro and EPS seemed more dialed in to each other and the control run looked similar to the swath the op had. 

2 hours ago, JTrout said:

Elliot from Millersville compared the potential to the Carolina Crusher from 2000. I added that snowmap for comparison. Maybe this one can be the Keystone Crusher! 

 

I’ll pass on the overall 99-00 Nina analog haha. It was cold but since 1980 it was the 4th least snowy winter at UNV (behind 11/12, 15/16, and 19/20).  Unfortunately it has been pretty dry to this point snow wise while looking quite cold overall for the foreseeable future. I was only like 13 at the time but I do remember that winter having blocking but too far east and we missed out on some coastal storms being too far east or offshore. We get this potential storm that should turn that on it’s head. 

I can kind of see the similarity in the setup between the Jan 2000 surprise and this potential one but as it’s modeled at the moment I think this has a farther west 500mb alignment (western ridge), more amplified, and a much more established system coming across the country. The northern energy for 1/25/00 didn’t phase in until the coastal low was popped off the SC/GA coast. It then had to come right up the coast which was where modeling at the time was extremely late to the game picking up how close to the coast it will run. The lead up to this is different, having a pretty significant wave coming up across the country (that part has been consistently modeled the last several days). The big thing with the last pretty much model cycle or so has been the energy dropping in/behind this wave and allowing it to amplify and come up the coast. I think this has the potential to be a much more widespread storm then that one was. 

Okay, I’m interested now. Is this going to be another case of the GFS picking this back up first in the mid-range like the Jan 3rd event?

There’s a lot of moving parts to this, but we’re going to have the amplified pattern we need to pop one of these big time events. 

Using Euro here (and Madden voice if you wish), Parent shortwave(s) of this potential system arrive on the west coast (main one Washington and another higher up in BC by about H48, appearing to phase in to a very potent 500mb shortwave and rounding and dropping straight down toward the Gulf. 

57 HR

99 HR

So a lot of the early phases of this are already within the short range (certainly in NAM range) as far as getting the parent shortwaves on shore to the point of this dropping down the plains toward the Gulf… and this has been modeled pretty solid getting a decent swath of precip to that point. So you’ll see in Hr 99 I marked a few other things and their eventual directions being modeled between then and the next map (Hr 126). As the parent 500mb shortwave slows and amplifies there’s another shortwave that comes in on the BC coast, while the closed 500 low (PV) over the far north of Canada lurks. Dashed line denotes positively tilted ridge axis. This is where it gets extremely important. These features HAVE to drop down behind and force this thing to round the bend, or else we’re sitting high and dry as this potent feature gets forced east and out under us. Today, the likes of the GFS and Euro are doing the former, so we’ll see if that trend continues. There’s big time potential on the table if it does. 

HR 126

34 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

You and @losetoa6 may need to face off on a long, flat stretch at some point.  Haha.  I need space over speed but I would love to drive a WRX some days. 

It’s got Bliizzak’s on for the winter so we can face off on a long snow covered stretch lol. It’s fun to drive, and it does do really well in the snow with the AWD.

50 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Is that a WRX nosing its way into the pic? 

Yup sure is haha.

Just got back home, still about 30-31ish. Measured right at 1/4” of ice plus my cable line got taken down (somehow didn’t knock the cable/internet out)

It’s a mess around here this morning as I figured it would be. Still 29-30ish too. Secondary roads look pretty similar to my driveway, state and mains that are treated or were pre salted before are still a slippery slush. 

Precip has started. Straight freezing rain, 28ºF

Temps in the low-mid 20s with initial arrival of freezing rain late tonight around here, ugh. 

1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

Fringed.  No thank you.  Next.  ;-)

This event is also on the Euro control run today in a much more friendly C-PA positioning. Something to see if it sticks when it gets inside D10. Looks like the next event after tomorrow’s icy mess is going to be in the Jan 15-16 timeframe. 

The overall pattern going forward looks good for the eastern US. I think we’ll eventually be presented with other snow opportunities 

3 hours ago, canderson said:

So I have a question. Where did all the clippers go? 

We haven’t had patterns conducive for them much the past couple winters. Two winters ago we had such a positive NAO/AO all winter that the northern branch track was way too far north for them to track where they need to for our area. Last winter we had NAO blocking galore and got the big hitters but still couldn’t score much of those events in between the December and February storms. The mean trough dumped west of us, resulting in that insane OK/TX cold wave later  in February and us being on the front of the trough. 

And of course, this question offers an opportunity to market the potential for clippers going forward with this pattern haha… because it certainly looks like a clipper pattern to me. Broad ridge in the west and us on the back of the trough (NW flow). It also looks like standard colder phase NINA business with the progressive pattern. Gonna be hard for models to see an individual waves in the fast flow, even in the medium range.. so I wouldn’t be surprised if a lighter event suddenly starts showing up. This pattern is going to have some bigger storm potential but is going to really depend on timing for any phasing of shortwaves.. again standard Nina business. It hasn’t been talked about much on here but we’re running in moderate territory in NINO 3.4 (-1.0ºC), with 3 and 1+2 in high end moderate territory (-1.4ºC and -1.5ºC respectively) this past week, and it has been that way the last several. The latest three month average was -0.8ºC. The Nina is definitely having an influence this winter, so hopefully we can keep the MJO away from 4-6 as much as possible. 

1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

1) Despite never getting above 27, snowpack is down nearly 1" since this morning

2) Joe Bastardi is a lightning rod, and understandably. I don't care about his "outside of weather" stuff, I go to people I trust for all of that stuff. As for the weather, my biggest beef is his sensationalism. Every storm is a 500 year storm, for crying out loud. However...I also believe that he knows more than most in here combined. There are a lot of respected mets locally and nationally that praise him. Horst is one of 'em - Eric considers him to be about the best in the business. (he's said as much in his tweets over the years)

Bottom line - I can understand both sides of this little ditty. 

Agreed, putting the politics/personal opinions aside.. I do read and watch some of his posts on WB and have read his posts in the past when he was still with AccuWx. I kinda think there’s a certain way to “interpret” him if you will, or at least that’s how I approach reading his stuff. He’s very big on analogs and comparing past patterns to a potential upcoming one (often ones that produce a historical past event). And I think the more one realizes that you often can have similar patterns and potential materialize without having it come together for said comparable historical event… the more you can at least kind of see where he’s coming from with any given setup.. He’s also big on sticking to his ideas for as long as possible no matter how sideways the sensible weather pattern gets in comparison. Case in point: this past December. However, I saw a lot of other busted forecasts when it came to this past December and I was wrong in my initial thinking going into the month as well. At any rate,  I think that’s a big reason he can come off as sensationalist. That and he has really pushed the 95-96 narrative much more than average this year haha. 

24 minutes ago, canderson said:

Why does everyone in that show speak English? 1 star.

Apparently parts of Maine had 3" of zr in 1998. https://www.theactivetimes.com/worst-ice-storm-us-history-1998

In Canada, 35 were killed cause this storm. Damnnnn. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/ice-storm-1998-1.4469977 

I swear when I was in school I came across something in one of my meteorology textbooks that mentioned KAOO reported more days of ZR on average during a year than any other station in the country. I could never relocate it again, so I can’t really support that claim haha. I do know we see more than enough ice setups in this valley right off the Laurels.

I know I’ve mentioned this in the past, but the 1950 Great Appalachian Storm which gave Pittsburgh I believe it’s largest ever snowfall was probably the worst ice storm in the history of this local area and was something of the caliber of that or at least the Paducah ice storm. Was trying to find the article but saw something about it for sale on Amazon. I might have to buy it haha. The pictures just on the preview are insane.

10 minutes ago, canderson said:

Will Sunday be more sleet than zr? I hope so. ZR is no bueno. 

I’m personally concerned about the potential for really icy roads Sunday Morning despite what might only be a couple tenths of precip. I look to 925mb often to make that determination on sleet v freezing rain and 925mb gets routed pretty quick on the models with precip arrival along with pretty warm 850 temps that are already established. That’s why you see a really defined line at the Allegheny Front on the 2m map. Probably the first half of Sat Night looks pretty clear and calm so surface temps are going to fall pretty rapidly east of the Alleghenies. This after the cold day today and like temps in the low to mid teens tonight and pack on the ground. I-80 corridor north in C-PA might hold enough depth in the cold to get some sleet while the folks near the M/D line in the LSV might moderate at the surface quicker and have a later onset of precip, but this has higher impact advisory ZR event written all over it for most of PA east of the Laurel’s IMO. 

Main stuff has mainly shut off here, measuring 2.5” total. A tad less than I thought we might get here... but a nice snowfall. Judging by PBZ radar, could have some upslope stuff flare up with the westerly flow behind the system toward daybreak.  

Looks like some of the better enhanced stuff is even making it all the way up towards Williamsport. The whole Sus Valley from there down appears to be getting into the best rates of this event currently. Looking at LWX radar some of the really heavy stuff is traversing the Mason-Dixon and bottom tier of PA counties (Cashtown and Bubbler) and especially just below in northern MD. This should catch everyone else down below MDT towards York/Lancaster the next couple hours. 

50 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

The thing that stood out to me, about Sunday, was the Nam showing real cad down into central VA.  For me personally I need that to get Frz here.  A big buffer.  Won't sully up the boards doing a good snow storm with talking about it much more. 

I think it could be a legit threat Sunday morning simply because we’ll have pack down and the coldest temps of the season on the lead up to Sat Night/Sun Morning. If there’s some rad cooling Sat Night before clouds move in it could be well below freezing. It doesn’t look like a big QPF producer but it doesn’t have to be to make for some really icy roads in that kind of scenario. Def something to keep an eye on once we get through the current event.  The actual warm-up on the surface will probably be brief as well, with a frontal passage and reinforcement of cold by Sunday evening. After that it appears we have a stable pattern of western ridge/eastern trough and we’ll have to keep an eye on any shortwaves that eventually materialize. 

At 2” here now, moderate rates. 

Measured about 1.3” 10-15 minutes ago, but coming down pretty heavily now. Radar looks like a heavier band is setting up overhead at least for the time being. 

Snow has begun fast. Steady moderate, 29ºF

11 minutes ago, pawatch said:

Every time I go outside I was thinking that.

Mag you look in a pretty good spot.

Hope everyone on the board gets a good hit!!

Cash

0.13. 2.4”

Yea it’s looking way better here than even yesterday, plus you guys up there should at least get to 2” or so I think. I’m expecting 3-4” here. Still expecting the real good stuff to be just south but we’ll see. 

Here was the 12z HREF today, CTP seems to utilize this pretty heavily and would appear to support the expansion of advisories this afternoon, among the other guidance as well. I think this only runs 12 and 0z.

I think warning totals have a chance of happening in a stripe, likely across the southern tier. A more enhanced band could present even a 15-18:1 type ratio. So, I think it could really pile up especially in the Laurel’s and even some of the ridges of Bedford/Fulton/Franklin (6-8”) type  if we get the rates and this could carry over into the LSV as well (5-6”). Otherwise this looks like it should be a 2-5” for most of the subforum.