MAG5035

2 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Is late week trending to be out to sea?

Hardly, unless you only looked at the GFS op tonight.

New Euro’s coming in a bit high and tight for the LSV’s liking this run and best snowbands in western/central PA. This is very much still in play. 

I used 10:1 for that. The Kuchera makes that 6”+ swath a 10”+ one.. which is possible because the snowy side of that system is likely to have a cold column and good surface temps. 

Track about the same on the 0z vs 18z Euro. Precip extent does sneak across the M/D line on the 0z getting an inch or so into southern York/Lancaster. Best snowfall axis about the same but big difference in top end with a more GFS-like 10”+ swath now (not as expansive as the GFS though). 

14 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

I know the focus has shifted back to tomorrow night and Monday, but what happened to the 1/7 storm?  Totally out to sea south of us.  I thought the GFS was consistently looking good for the LSV later in the week.

BTW...so far today I have recorded 0.77" of rain to start off 2022.  Looks like there will be another accumulating round over the next few hours.  Last night's runs gave me an average of 1.2" of rainfall.  I was thinking a little earlier that the rainfall was a complete bust yet again, but it's looking like a decent shot at reaching 1" by the time it ends tomorrow.

The GFS has been pretty inconsistent with it the last model cycle or so. Going a little further back to yesterday’s 12z run, it was a full blown lakes cutter. 

The GEFS has shown it more consistently. The 0z still has a 2”+ mean over most of PA despite the complete miss on the op. 0z Canadian’s coming in with a nice 4-8” type snowfall statewide. The earlier 18z Euro ensemble that goes out to 144 and saw most of the event also was in good shape for a widespread snowfall. Still a medium range deal so I think it’s still looking good all things considered. 

7 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Question for everyone…

What would stop this from coming further north?

I don’t see a pressing High.

I don’t see too much confluence.

I don’t see an interfering Lakes low.

We still have over 1 day to bring this another 50 or more miles north of the GFS is right.

Progressive pattern was my big thing with this feature and it still is but I was not expecting the shortwave responsible for this to get stronger like it has. I expected a much less defined one in the wake of the current wave.

There’s probably a cap at how far up this can get but I’ll eat the humble pie if the LSV does end up with a decent event. I already accepted sitting this one out in the cold in hopes of the 1/7 event after literally having it rain off an on the entire 6 days since it snowed Monday. But I’m still a snow weenie at heart too so this 1/3 one’s probably gonna reel me in just enough to hoping to see it get something up this way haha. 

18z Euro v. 12z Euro, a jog north on extent with accumulating (1 inch or so into DC now) but fairly similar with amounts/heavy axis placement. 

4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

How will people rank this if the middle of the road solutions are correct?  More amped than the Nam but just 4-6 for any maxes. 

I mean swath-wise with the axis of heaviest snowfall is certainly a hat-tip toward the GFS when considering what the Euro/Canadian has. The 12z Canadian indicated a lot of heavy sleet where the heavy deform bands presumably would be in central/eastern VA. GFS still NW with it’s axis vs those two and very heavy with snowfall and the 18z GEFS largely backs it up it appears. The Euro/Canadian take is still a pretty big snowstorm for that area but 18z GFS evolution is a big ticket snowstorm for the Mid-Atlantic region. 12 and 18z NAM today has been straight up uninterested in any of this which I’d imagine is probably wrong to at least some degree considering the rest of the guidance suite and associated ensembles and the fairly robust shortwave in question even with limited amplification opportunities.

So at any rate, obviously the middle of the road is the best way to approach this as there’s a lot of questions to resolve. If this indeed ends up a deeper wave and puts good precip into the Mid-Atlantic region, big question probably is going to be if there’s gonna be a changeover to overcome and how long it takes where biggest snow totals are being presented, which comes down to timing and how well the cold actually progresses. LSV shouldn’t have that problem by that time, but northern extent is now the big question for some in this subforum. I still say I don’t expect a lot if it does make it into the southern tier LSV, but we shall see. 

2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I have seen a trend recently of people posting simulated radar instead of the actual precip maps?   Is that something we are doing this year?  Not being sarcastic just curious as it has happened here and other forums quite a bit.  The simulated radar shows virga I believe. 

I’ve often looked at them but it is important to still pay attention to QPF maps, especially in fringe situations like the LSV is going to be possibly be positioned in for this 1/3 event. 

Boy we’re really about to find out about the GFS’s short term prowess these days with a snowstorm on the line, especially the folks in Central VA. In the meantime the NAM should sue the GFS for copyright infringement of the term “NAM’ed”.

I wasn’t overly optimistic on the 1/3 system a few days ago and I still am not, though I’ll admit the door is open for our fringe folks on the southern tier to maybe get a period some light snow. It’s a nice vort on the 500mb but patterns quite progressive for this and there’s no interaction at all with the northern stream. I think this wave needed to come up faster on the heels of what we’re getting today for this to have had a chance at working well for our region, which would have required some thread the needle timing with the cold air coming in tomorrow. 

I have much higher optimism on this 1/7 event. Key feature for this appears the low that traverses the Lakes mid-week and refreshes the cold… setting the boundary this wave will run. Additionally, this feature may help lessen or take away the potential for this to cut. Seems like the GFS and Canadian ops today really press the cold after the mid week low and stuff the wave that potentially becomes our snowstorm (Canadian especially.. GFS wasn’t really that far off). 12z Euro sets it up perfect. 12z Euro and GFS ensembles as a mean seem to be angling more towards what the Euro op is showing. 

Ensemble comparison: Prob of 24 hr snowfall >1” Euro  EPS v. GEFS 

0z Euro is looking pretty good for pretty much everyone with the 1/7 wave. Ramps up especially in eastern PA but a nice event for everyone in western/central PA. 

Some hard hitting obs, it’s foggy out. It’s been this way off and on most of the last 24 hours with temps in the mid 40s (44ºF currently).

1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

I'd settle for the flatish look we've had, and just being on the colder side of the boundary, as we've been hoping for.  With all of the vorts we've been seeing, that'd set up a nice conveyor belt of snowballs from the midwest.  This looks to be progressing twds the promise land.  Just gotta hope NAO/AO dont mute the signal, cause we all know how easy it is to fail.

 

Yea trends on the models have been consistently showing a transition to a +NAO/AO going forward. For us to have a longer lasting period of cold/snow opportunities later in January, this is where we need some ridging out west to build in the PNA realm to go with the persistent Pac ridging (-WPO). Looking at today’s ensembles, Euro EPS and GEFS both transition towards a western ridge look but differ a good bit in alignment.

GEFS vs Euro EPS 500mb anomaly (Day 10-15 average)

The GEFS has a really good look, with the ridge bridging over to Siberia. This alignment would suggest a more direct cold air source, even with the +AO look. Basically pretty chilly but not overwhelming.  The Euro has troughing in AK.. cutting off that Siberian source and flattening/broadening the western ridge, and generally making for a warmer look in the east.

Here’s the comparison with the 5 day average 850 temp anomalies (D10-15 average)

The Euro still isn’t super torchy in our region, but you can see how much more favorable the GEFS would be when considering storm track. 

2 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

Just saw the low track.  Rather unusual.   

Yea it looks to be modeled as a very robust shortwave that’s pulling an arctic front. We can debate how long the significant cold shot behind it lasts but it looks like a pretty significant blast with -15 to -20ºC 850 air briefly overspreading the commonwealth

If we had a big time ridge established out west for this we might have been making comparisons to some other arctic wave that happened on 1/6-7 a few years back.

Yea that 12z Euro threw down a 12”+ swath (1-2 feet factoring Kuchera) on a rapidly developing wave running an arctic boundary from the Lower Lakes through upstate NY/interior Northeast.   *Yawn*

That swath was right through PA just on the 0z run, and this particular wave is on all the models today. Not super far out in range so the strong storm signal amongst models is noteworthy, but definitely too far out to make any assumptions. 

19 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I still contend we have not been all that warm.  It may go down as one of the top 5 warmest but it sort of nickeled and dimed its way there.  Plenty of very cold nights. 

Yea I agree with you. We started the month out pretty chilly and weren’t super warm but somewhat above average highs for most of it, with those dry chilly nights kind of counter balancing some. Up until this week we have been in a really dry pattern since November. Big thing is we have had zero legitimate winter cold shots (even something more mundane like 20s for highs) and that’s really weighing into that temperature average. That and of course the last few days to close out the year are definitely going to be significantly above average day and night. 

Take Dec 98 for example, that year got to #2 way differently with the front half of that month way above average and most of the first week of the month in the mid 70s+ for highs (one day cracked 80) at MDT. I remember it well.. I was 12 and it was my first deer season hunting. I’ve had some warm hunts in recent years but there still isn’t anything that compared to the opening day of rifle season that year. 

Gulf of Alaska Tropics > Susquehanna Valley Tropics

Bubbler definitely would’ve been running the AC in Kodiak, AK yesterday lol. 

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/baked-alaska-record-december-warmth-winter-rains-2021-12-29/

JB finally acknowledging this a bit more in a post today. 

Quote

 

The MJO has NOT been in a phase favorable for warmth in December. It is solidly in 7, by correlation means there are samples when its not cold. Unfortunately for me and my December forecast, this is one of them.

Note this statement from the NOAA MJO discussion:

“While West Pacific MJO events typically favor colder than normal conditions across the CONUS, extended-range model guidance continues to mimic more of an amplified negative Pacific North American pattern, suggestive of La Niña dominating the extratropical response over North America.”

The strongly negative PNA has been fighting the cold over the past couple of weeks. My mistake was in believing other factors would overwhelm it and they plainly have not. However, the intensity of the negative PNA will back off dramatically over the next 15 days

 

Regarding the MJO I’ve brought this correlation thing up like twice in posts the last few weeks, which is why I continue to think we need to get it to 8 and 1, and there are signs of that maybe finally occurring. Interesting tidbit with the NOAA quote, something I’ve admittedly not really thought about but it’s interesting to consider… the La Niña enhancing the Phase 7 pattern. Look at what’s happened in the west (esp the Sierra Nevada of California). The big concern there leading into winter with the ENSO being a Nina was continued drought conditions especially in that part of the west and about the most opposite thing that could probably occur has happened.

But yea models have been all over this super -PNA all month, I mentioned previously that getting into the territory it has gotten into was probably going to be a primary driver over the -NAO/AO and it was going to have to neutralize at least some. It shouldn’t be a surprise that we ended up where we are currently at going through this month on this side of the country. 

19 hours ago, CarlislePaWx said:

@Cashtown_Coop, or @MAG5035, or to anyone else who melts down their snowfall to obtain a liquid equivalent:  I just went outside and brought in my clear-vue gauge to melt down today's 1.9" of snowfall.  I was pretty surprised at what I saw.  I received 0.40" of liquid from 1.9" of snow which equates to a ratio of just 4.75 : 1 !!  Typically you only see these low ratios with a lot of sleet.  I know my snow this morning was wet but I didn't think it was THAT wet.  I am very anxious to see what others near my area got for their liquid equivalent and ratio.  Thanks in advance.  

PS>>>My temp is now down to 32.2 degrees.  Oh so tantalizingly close for a bit of freezing rain.

Did it rain or sleet at all before you were able to bring the snow sample in yesterday? That might’ve lowered the SLR some. Either way it may have been a low ratio event. I didn’t melt mine down but it seemed pretty moisture laden and the majority of the 2-3” around here fell in about 2 hours or so in one intense period of precip.

One thing I noticed the night before when I was looking at the guidance to gauge the likelihood of this snow burst was the column of course was marginal.. but even at 700mb it was only a couple degrees below zero which is roasting at that particular level.  That’s getting into the typical region of snow growth and only -1 to -2ºC would yield poor snow growth and likely a high moisture content. So ratios were probably pretty lousy, I dunno about 5:1 ish lousy but it’s possible. 

9 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

So for $5 I can find out the answer? 

Hey I basically told you the same thing without the cover charge lol 

58 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Even being ice its not as bad as I thought.  Not what we wanted of course.  Only an hour or two away from our next shot. 

Yea I get the models aren’t showing much digital snow today in the long range and are showing some cutters in the interim but I really don’t share the pessimism of the 12z suite. 

I see some decent things brewing in the ensemble means. I see the PNA forecasts steadily starting to come out of the hole (below -6 st dev currently) to a lesser negative value or even almost to neutral in the Euro EPS case by the end of the run. EPO briefly touches positive (around the period of the after New Years system) before going back negative. WPO (West Pacific Oscillation) remains negative which means that Pac ridge is going to likely continue to be a fixture. NAO/AO realm not as negative but nothing I see as overly detrimental. If that super -PNA neutralizes even some and we keep our general base state with the other teleconnections, that’s going to broaden what has been a very sharp western trough and allow the cold to push east and level off the SE ridge. Probably not going to be really cold initially unless/until we get an actual western ridge but it doesn’t need to be -20 to snow.

This system coming New Years weekend is likely going to be the first thing that allows an actual shot of colder air east in awhile. Just said yesterday the system itself probably cuts (and depending on a kicker right behind it is low probability at best in most cases). We’ll see how the pattern evolves. Individual features/systems in the longer range are background noise to me at this point beyond this weekend system. I’m concentrating at the bigger picture features. The MJO is also starting to edge toward 8 and is finally starting to get into there on some of the model forecasts. 

With all that business 7-10+ days down the road, I’m also sitting here wondering if the next wave of precip tomorrow night tries to do what this morning’s wave did maybe getting some frozen further south than advertised.  The majority of snowfall on that 12z GFS forecast today in northern PA comes from that. Probably looking at a another advisory for the northern counties (potentially for straight up snow) and at least some of the central ones for mix. This is on the other models too (swath a tad further north on most other guidance). Sus Valley probably is gonna be a bit too warm for this one but it’s fairly close to being a second wintry event during a week that had appeared to be to be the warmest/most hostile period in the actual 15 day forecasts. 

Post clean-up. Temps are above freezing now so looks like icing is going to be minimal. Snow is concrete though. What a nice overachiever this morning. For the lackluster start this winter has had this was still a bigger single snowfall than anything in 19-20.. so things are looking up lol. 

Sounding the pinger alert here. Sleet and some ZR in there. Final snow total going in at 2.8”.

Roads must be a disaster, the mailman has the USPS truck parked on my street and he’s got snowchains deployed on the back tires haha.

Today’s a good reminder that we don’t reside at 500mb and those ugly reds at those levels don’t always indicate a blow torch at the surface.

9 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Oh wow, one might call that an over-performer, eh?

For sure, although the HRRR was showing amounts like this through about it’s 0z run or so last night before it lightened up the initial slug of precip. Looks like the earlier runs ended up being correct with the heavy slug of precip up front. This may be enough to push into the Sus Valley and collapse the column for a period of heavier snow. 

Slept in a bit this morning, well this was a nice surprise to wake up too.

Crushed 2.2” and counting. Heavy snow