SnowDawg
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Everything posted by SnowDawg
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The models couldn't even tease us for more than 24 hours?!? Euro already turning our historic cold into a SE ridge lol. I just can't see with how much colder this winter has felt compared to the last few that I'm sitting 6 inches below average on snowfall.
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So compared to yesterday's runs, what is it that is making that big PV cold blast just slam on its brakes and only deliver a glancing blow?
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Good signs all around thus far. Really hope we can get a bit better shot of cold behind the weekend system to have a better chance of snow mid week vs a sloppy icy mess.
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Agreed from North GA. 09/10 and 10/11 back to back are the best winters we've seen in 30 plus years, discounting the monster at the end of 93 of course.
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I didn't pay this one much attention down here in the GA mountains but it's definitely a lot colder than it was supposed to be right now. 28.5/25.1. Forecast from GSP was low of 32 without even any frozen/freezing at onset.
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Of all the potential CAD'S we've had this far, I feel this one has the most potential to trend stronger once we get to Hi-Res guidance. As long as the high is of good strength and gets in a good location, this one actually has some legit cold to work with in the NE for the first time this winter.
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Decent bit faster. At 0z on the 28th the GFS is just starting to form the weak surface low back around Louisiana/Mississippi, while the UKMet already has it there in south/central GA. I’d guess we want the slower solutions allowing the HP more time to get into position.
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Gfs slowed the wave down a bit looks like allowing CAD to build in out ahead a little better. Beyond frustrating seeing all that snow deep into SC yet nothing at all in GA lol. Hanging my hopes on an under-modeled CAD.
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It’s really close to identical honestly, just shifted north a bit causing differences on the southern fringes and down along the southern blue ridge escarpment. Selfishly would love to see it move just a bit more towards this look, definitely looking like there’s potential for someone to get a big one out of this though.
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I mean is the source cold air just pathetic for peak winter? A 1044 high and a surface low in North Florida on the Para and its still almost all rain in NE GA damming regions. 9 times out of 10 I swear a high that strong puts us in the game in the past.
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This was a nice call. GFS immediately delivered a big dog fantasy run within just a few hours lol.
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It looked absolutely fantastic for the SW mountains all afternoon until it suddenly didn't. So believe it at your own peril I'd say.
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HRRR just cut QPF by half or more for a lot of the SW mtns in NC and GA. Dry slot becoming a problem?
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Got a friend all the way down in Gwinnette County that had wet snow mixed in with the rain earlier. Said temp fell to like 35.7 under that heavy band earlier.
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Just speaking to what I'm seeing trying to compare the two in NE GA the NAM initialized way too warm with its 3pm temps. Showed mid 40s when ground truth is 39. Don't know if that's what's causing the changes with outcomes though.
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GSP just upped totals significantly down here. It was under a half inch before this.
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Still holding in the upper 20s here in North GA with a thick cloud deck right now. Was supposed to be in the upper 30s by now. I don't wanna read any signicance into it but I am curious.
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We're definitely not at warning criteria here in Rabun, GSP just issued the warning in cooperation with the Atlanta office to avoid confusion. So I am under a WSW with a forecast of less than a half inch
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Although the main run and the control are both cutters the mean is more of a coastal solution. And unsurprisingly so it's max strip of mean snowfall runs through WNC.
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Compared to its 18z run which was a lot better track wise, the 50/50 is way weaker on that run. We need that Thursday/Friday system to really bomb out in the 50/50 region I feel.
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Stuck on the sleet mix line. Line will be past in the next hour. Hopefully it'll flip all snow long enough for a dusting. Flow snow usually doesn't make it here but the Hi-Res models have been ambitious.
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Heavy mixed bag here in northeast GA. Falling sideways though in 40mph winds.
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That's great! Better than me temps wise. Never got lower than 33 because of the warm bubble at 925. About a half inch in areas of the yard that aren't too wet. From what I've heard, Clayton itself has no accumulations.
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Tiger, GA. In the furthest Northeast county in GA.
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Dropped from 35 to 33 in about 30 minutes. Grassy areas now getting coated good.
