SnowDawg
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Everything posted by SnowDawg
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The models couldn't even tease us for more than 24 hours?!? Euro already turning our historic cold into a SE ridge lol. I just can't see with how much colder this winter has felt compared to the last few that I'm sitting 6 inches below average on snowfall.
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So compared to yesterday's runs, what is it that is making that big PV cold blast just slam on its brakes and only deliver a glancing blow?
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Good signs all around thus far. Really hope we can get a bit better shot of cold behind the weekend system to have a better chance of snow mid week vs a sloppy icy mess.
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Agreed from North GA. 09/10 and 10/11 back to back are the best winters we've seen in 30 plus years, discounting the monster at the end of 93 of course.
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I didn't pay this one much attention down here in the GA mountains but it's definitely a lot colder than it was supposed to be right now. 28.5/25.1. Forecast from GSP was low of 32 without even any frozen/freezing at onset.
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Of all the potential CAD'S we've had this far, I feel this one has the most potential to trend stronger once we get to Hi-Res guidance. As long as the high is of good strength and gets in a good location, this one actually has some legit cold to work with in the NE for the first time this winter.
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Decent bit faster. At 0z on the 28th the GFS is just starting to form the weak surface low back around Louisiana/Mississippi, while the UKMet already has it there in south/central GA. I’d guess we want the slower solutions allowing the HP more time to get into position.
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Gfs slowed the wave down a bit looks like allowing CAD to build in out ahead a little better. Beyond frustrating seeing all that snow deep into SC yet nothing at all in GA lol. Hanging my hopes on an under-modeled CAD.
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It’s really close to identical honestly, just shifted north a bit causing differences on the southern fringes and down along the southern blue ridge escarpment. Selfishly would love to see it move just a bit more towards this look, definitely looking like there’s potential for someone to get a big one out of this though.
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I mean is the source cold air just pathetic for peak winter? A 1044 high and a surface low in North Florida on the Para and its still almost all rain in NE GA damming regions. 9 times out of 10 I swear a high that strong puts us in the game in the past.
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This was a nice call. GFS immediately delivered a big dog fantasy run within just a few hours lol.
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Had a little sleet earlier. Now 34.5 and all rain.
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And finishes putting the nail in the coffin for the SW mountains.
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It looked absolutely fantastic for the SW mountains all afternoon until it suddenly didn't. So believe it at your own peril I'd say.
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HRRR just cut QPF by half or more for a lot of the SW mtns in NC and GA. Dry slot becoming a problem?
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GSP pouring water on my fire before it even gets startedHRRR looks great for North GA, NAM doesn't. Clear to see which one they favor.
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Dang, jealous right now. Still not a thing reaching the ground up here and 39.7, temp even went up a bit on that last update. Heavier rates just keep dying before they can get here making evap. cooling very inefficient.
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Got a friend all the way down in Gwinnette County that had wet snow mixed in with the rain earlier. Said temp fell to like 35.7 under that heavy band earlier.
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Man I hope so. Still so unsure about this one as its moved back and forth so many times. Still worried about that potential dry slot and of course the marginal temps and how much mixing could cut our totals.
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Hearing some wet snow reports in the northern suburbs of Atlanta. MPING has a few mix reports as well.
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Just speaking to what I'm seeing trying to compare the two in NE GA the NAM initialized way too warm with its 3pm temps. Showed mid 40s when ground truth is 39. Don't know if that's what's causing the changes with outcomes though.
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New map from GSP
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GSP just upped totals significantly down here. It was under a half inch before this.
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Still holding in the upper 20s here in North GA with a thick cloud deck right now. Was supposed to be in the upper 30s by now. I don't wanna read any signicance into it but I am curious.
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We're definitely not at warning criteria here in Rabun, GSP just issued the warning in cooperation with the Atlanta office to avoid confusion. So I am under a WSW with a forecast of less than a half inch
