SnowDawg

Of course it’s not bad for everyone. I never said that. Simply stated from a statistical standpoint, as in percentage of the Southeast to get snow, late bloomers are sad for most in the southeast especially with conditions being ripe for snow but just getting no moisture transport. But this board tends to pertain mostly to the Carolinas so not surprised at the response.

I am, just like everyone else on this board lol. Fact is late bloomers are bad for the overwhelming majority of the southeast.

Late bloomers are so depressing for basically the entire southeast lol. Nothing I hate more than seeing the potential, having the temps and everything, and then the storm just passes by before even getting started.

They might have resulted in a persistent -NAO pattern, but the little ice age period likely wasn't driven by Atmospheric circulation. I studied this period extensively in college, and it was more of a perfect series of dominoes falling to cause the event. Tropical volcanic forcing likely led to a few years of increasing ice cap volume which altered Ocean patterns, especially the formation of North Atlantic Deep Water. This reduced heat transport into the North Atlantic which would have then led to persistent changes in atmospheric circulation, such as a semi-permanent -NAO. The sunspot minimum likely increased the staying power of this phenomena, acting as a reinforcement of sorts.

Yeah, EPS looked better at 500mb in the long range than it has in days. Signal is obviously muted at that range but generally shows troughing in the east still with -NAO all the way at hr 360.

Ensembles continuing to abandon snowfall with the weekend storm. Truly bizarre to me to see a storm squashed down into the gulf and it still be too warm...

I don’t understand the warmth... Suppression and warmth don’t exactly go together?

Looks suppressed, but close. Not a bad look given how often NW trend tends to show up later on.

Through 126 the wave is significantly stronger and better organized over west Texas. Lets see if it can get neutral, or does it get suppressed like GFS

The GFS still improved with the wave. It’s now showing it diving from the Washington/Montana border instead of trying to do it from the Dakotas like yesterday. It takes it down through the 4 corners region like we typically like to see, it’s just suppressing it all to hell after that and the western ridge is still a bit too short IMO.

Man this is tough to get a handle on right now. GEFS looks good for N GA, but almost all the OP’s leave us dry. ICON would be snow here and in WNC if it could just get the moisture back up this way. At this range I want to lean on the ensembles, but seeing even the good OP runs consistently be late bloomers is disconcerting.

Yep drop in means on this run. With a storm that absolutely has to thread the needle, I imagine consistency will take even longer than usual to manage.

Yeah. I use weathermodels.com

No one should expect run to run continuity 7 days out on a storm that is going to be this close. Very small differences in the ridge/trough are resulting in the big differences seen at the surface, from run to run at this range that will change wildly. I have 11 out of 20 GEFS members over 4 inches and all showing 1 inch or more for my area. I couldn't ask for more support at a 7 day lead time.

So? Its one run of an OP 7 days out.

18z much closer than 6z or 12z. Height of the western ridge will be key on getting the wave to dive quickly and be able to get neutral in time.

Lots of big time totals starting to show up on GEFS members in N GA, others are generally light with no in between. For now at least, looks like the timing of getting neutral/negative is driving the forecast.

I’m perfectly fine with the amount of cold we’re getting. Extreme cold would only lead to extreme suppression.

No it’s bone dry. Not a drop of qpf supposedly. It’s colder over here than where it just put down foot plus snows lol

Can’t understand how a low bombing out in the Gulf somehow left N GA and W NC pretty much completely dry...

Dusting to an inch looks like. I don’t think so.

Well it would be if it hadn’t somehow skipped that entire region with precip Central NC got hammered on the Kuchera maps.

6z vs 12z GEFS

Pretty sure it was dryer actually. But still both OP's showing snow in the southeast on the same date with ensemble support. I'll take that this far out.

Yep. Ensemble means are definitely on the rise for several runs in a row now. Over 6 inches now in N GA mountains. So I think we’ve officially got something to track, that actually has ensemble support now. Obviously a week out everything under the sun can go wrong, but this is the first real threat of the pattern flip.