SnowDawg

It didn't vanish though. It's throwing waves at us one after the other from both the NS and the STJ. No the OP models aren't showing the timing and placement of features matching up perfectly right now, but verbatim the GFS has 2 suppressed snow storms with a rain storm in between with an H5 look that doesn't match its ensemble. Suppression is always a risk but it's almost always over modeled to some degree. Euro was extremely close to giving the SE coast a nice hit at 12z. We all know these things can adjust hundreds of miles inside day 7.

Cool? If anything it's too cold. The gulf coast gets snow while the interior SE is bone dry. We need a NW trend to save us.

Such a great lead up but nothing more than a tease. Gonna get squashed.

With the 21st threat I just hope the suppression isn't overwhelming and that the flat flow off the eastern US doesn't cause a late bloomer for those of us further west.

Best case scenario right now given the GFS cold bias. That way we've got some wiggle room when it trends back the other direction.

GEFS improved and continues to advertise pattern flip without moving the date back. Take the win. You'll give yourself whiplash trying to keep up with the back and forth at this range, especially with split flow potentially developing.

ZR/Sleet/Kuchera Snow Give me this and I don't care what happens the rest of winter.

Storm around day 10 looks good to me. Weak enough to avoid overwhelming SW flow.

QPF Anomaly from the 19th to the 26th. This is why the snowfall mean fell and all the big dogs disappeared.

And it's plenty cold, GEFS is just drying up after the flip. Which is always a risk with cold weather in our parts. Funny how the GEFS is trending away from big snows after the EPS had the biggest run thus far at 0z.

Definitely the highest it's been yet. Huge increase.

I'd say, with the usual caveats of long lead times, that our first window of potentiallly having something to track soon is showing up anywhere from the 20th-24th. Lots of GEFS members with a trailing wave behind the weekend storm, varying in timing but all with some degree of wintry precip on the northern periphery.

I'd bet it gets squashed but that's just the way I like them at this range lol

That's for the 17th?

Mega - NAO look and a cutting storm with torching 2m temps.... Awesome...

Big suppressed storm around the 23rd. Here in the mountains suppression always scares me but given our past with NW trends I'm happy to see it at this time frame.

I'll take that look. I know NW trends would eventually put my area in the sweet spot lol

Big changes come just past 240 and locks in all the way to the end.

GEFS mean. All of this in the SE falls between the 20th and the 26th. EPS snowfall is still coming in so I haven't seen it yet but based on H5 I'd be surprised if there wasn't some.

Just took a peek at it myself and wow... Not only the epo ridge flipping the pattern but beginning to hint at blocking to. All the while with still above average precip. The pessimist in me is trying hard to keep my hopes down but things are looking very exciting.

Go EPS!

Wish the GFS and Euro weren't so far apart though. For here in North GA that looks good if it can just get any moisture far enough north. Would be happy with just a tenth of an inch or two liquid from a small finger of precip sliding west to east. But Euro is just a standard frontal passage with a warmup ahead of it.

Euro shows plenty of moisture, but it's nearly 50 degrees...

So -NAO/-AO=Torch now.... Wonder why everyone has been clamoring for this over the past decade+ without one during the winter months?

Warm nose has arrived just after the heaviest of the snow. ZR/IP/SN mix right now