SnowDawg
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Everything posted by SnowDawg
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Temps aloft were weird on that run. They pushed in much colder and much further south than on the 12z run but then just warmed ridiculously fast. pushing rain all the way into a large portion of even the mountains just based on the p-type maps.
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Kuchera on WxBell doesn't paint anywhere near that picture so likely loads of sleet and zr.
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GEFS mean snowfall looks a bit more like the 12z with snow totals pushing a bit further south in the Upstate and N Ga.
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I was at this time last year, but have since come back north after graduating last spring.
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I'm hoping that my location in the mountains in GA will only change over to sleet mainly , which is normal around here in these setups when the CAD is really stout to see more snow/sleet, while those just a bit further south get crippled with ice.
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I absolutely agree, we've all been burned before and I;m sure we remember every one of them. But that doesn't mean that we can start calling a very minimal change on a single model run a trend. Now if it starts showing warmer for a few runs in a row then it's time to worry. That may well happen, but it hasn't yet.
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FV3 still looks great, especially if you consider that its a global and likely doesn't have a handle on the CAD yet. It's not quite the 18z run for those to the south but lets be honest that was a bit of an outlier to this point. Some of you are taking very small changes in single model runs and calling them trends, while ignoring the fact that all the models have been trending colder for like the previous days worth of runs.
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Crazy difference in dewpoints at 84 between the NAM and GFS.
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That backside feature was stout on that run as well. Several more inches of snow for a lot of areas.
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Look at how hard that cold is pressing down even west of the Apps well into Tennessee. I don’t think that has happened on many models to this point.
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Wow, the EPS means went up and expanded even more than the GEFS did!
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Not much change in max snow totals on GEFS mean but they did expand and cover more ground.
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To be fair though that is an hour we had yet to get to in the NAM and the high was still 1041 in just the frame before, so to this point it still hasn’t wavered. We’re just getting further ahead into the event.
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Surely that CAD would be stronger? I mean the high definitely rockets out of there late but for a good portion of the event it is locked in there yet the 850s are very warm this run. Interested to see where the OP GFS stands within its suite.
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Yeah at 84 the low is identical and the high is actually out ahead a little better with a slightly better push in the 850s
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Saw a met on twitter post a blurb from the Norman, Oklahoma forecast discussion noting that they were concerned about forecasting dewpoints and wet bulbs too high because the airmass may not moderate as much as expected due to snowpack. I know high strength and placement is more important here but if the airmass is slightly colder than expected that can only help things.
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Wow..... This one exited me nearly as much as that bonkers 12z run a couple days ago. Maybe even more given that it’s a couple days closer to the event. This one has been fun to track for sure.
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Euro snow totals took a big jump SW also just like theGFS and GEFS.
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Definitely true. But at least as of 6z, I haven’t looked at 12z yet, the OP GFS is among the furthest north of its suite. GEFS supports a southern solution at least for now.
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6 plus from 85 north, higher totals the further NW you go. 1 inch totals going all the way to Columbia and maybe a little further at face value.
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Although max snow totals went down on GEFS, the snow coverage expanded quite a bit in all directions. A number of GEFS members have nudged south and west with snow totals. At 6z there were only around 6-7 members showing snow of at least an inch getting into most of N GA, and at 12z there are now 11-12. And the mean shows that with mean snowfall going up a bit across all of N GA and deeper into SC and nudging east towards the coast in NC. Yet another sign of models maybe starting to see stronger cold air transport.
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Hmm, would be interested in seeing the snow totals for that assuming that the cold is there. I know for my self and others in N GA and the upstate a track through northern Florida is what we typically want.
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Looks like maybe GFS is trying to catch up on stronger CAD. Couple runs in a row now where temps have gotten just a bit colder each time.
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On Weatherbell. It’s a paid site. But just speaking on the rest of N GA I’m lucky to be living where I am I suppose. Outside of the extreme NE mountains snowy members is probably more in the range of 10-15 out of 51 depending on exact location. But I guess it’s pretty much to be expected when climatology greatly favors the mountains in N GA when it comes to snow.
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Well with 42 out of 51 members on EPS at least giving me around a couple inches and like 16 of those showing bigger hits of 6 plus I’m definitely excited to keep tracking this one. Backing well away from the cliff I was at during some earlier runs lol
