SnowDawg
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Everything posted by SnowDawg
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Pretty well matched up. The mean trimmed some off the edges in basically all directions and lowered the totals along the escarpment a bit from 12z, probably just from eliminating some high outliers.
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Huge impact in the low in the TN valley getting amped up. 06z was our peak run for snow in NGA and the Western Carolinas and the QPF looked like this: Now it's this: This trend keeps up its turning into a true Miller B Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic/NE storm.
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Went from 4-6 hours of snow before mixing to 2 if I'm lucky. This winter is absolutely terrible. One of the worst in decades for me at this point.
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It gets worse... Edit: And even worse for some areas. No way changes this big don't have an impact. Same story aloft much warmer.
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Sheesh....NAM coming in slower meaning more sunlight in the morning and less evaporative cooling early on.
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HRRR like a dead match with the Euro on the split precip field. Front end thump is okay but then it's a massive dry slot. January nightmare all over again... So weird with all other modeling trending NW and amped. Guess we'll see if other modeling takes steps this direction at 18z and 0z.
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EPS Mean and Control follow the OP with a sudden drop in QPF...
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I think @SnowGoose69 called it perfectly and the Euro is doing exactly what he noted with the models over-correcting to the SE ridge in the 4-7 day time period and we'll see it go back to a more reasonable solution in between the extremes over the coming days.
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My gut tells me the NAM may be a bit too aggressive with the warm nose right now, but needless to say we really need that front end punch to be aggressive. With high rates, picking up just an extra hour or two over the NAM'S transition time could be significant.
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Euro very reminiscent of last month's awful storm. Extremely disorganized into almost two separate pieces with a big dry slot between.
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Wow...this winter sucks. Couldn't have even imagined being left out of a winter storm watch after the 06z runs yet here we are...
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Been thinking the same myself. Seems like an outlier, but I also know it's history with sniffing out warm noses and after that last bust in January it certainly shakes the confidence a bit.
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3km NAM came back in more aggressive with the warm nose than it did at 06z. Ton of QPF went to sleet that run. Again pretty high up there cause the 850s and 925s are well below freezing til bulk of the precip is basically gone.
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GFS moving the vortex east much quicker this run, should help move things back the other way from where it was.
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How is the RGEM with P-types? Doesn't appear to be much mixing like on NAM.
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Wow warm nose is killer. Soundings have me at or below freezing the whole event but after the few hour thump at the start it's all sleet and zr from there. Warm nose is way up there compared to normal though, like 750-775 mbar.
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With the temperatures that follow and the amount of people that depend on electricity for heat, that widespread of a devastating ice storm could turn deadly. Really pray nothing like that happens.
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Idk it still trended towards its OP run even if it masked it well. It still sped things up by at least a half day and the thermals were way different. The 850 freezing line was way further south on the 0z GEFS than the one above. The issue as far as I can tell is the SE Canada Vortex isn't getting out of the way like it was on yesterday's runs. Keeps our wave from slowing down and amplifying.
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Looks like it's trending upwards as well. Quite the island for the future GFS right now.
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Noticed a few ensemble members with this strip of snow across the deep south earlier today. Interesting.
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Haha, oh my goodness... The entire state of NC over a foot with Kuchera ratios.... That may be the greatest SE winter storm of all time. Too bad it's so far out lol
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GEFS mean for the first system.
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I'd take that look and bet that it's just wrong on the NW expanse of the precip.
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This is my worry as well. The big cold was showing Sunday-Tuesday now it's backed up to the end of the week. The first storm now looks borderline marginal and we keep kicking the can waiting for better cold. I hope it does materialize mid-to-late next week but at this point wouldn't be surprised to find ourselves kicking the can down the road again by this weekend.
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Trying to understand what differences turned the cold blast into a cold brush at hours where I expected a bit more consistency from the models lol. Does this baja low on the 12z yesterday contribute to the higher heights in the western US, and thus forcing the cold further south? That feature is cometely gone today.
