SnowDawg
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Everything posted by SnowDawg
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Moderate snowfall now, flakes getting a lot bigger and ground is turning white. 33.5/32.5 now.
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Right at 2,000 feet. Not even very far from the highway, so I’d assume the higher elevations and far northern end of the county are sticking good right now.
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Any time precip gets heavy it is now mostly snow here. Temp down to 34
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Steady mix now, elevated surfaces a bit slushy. Temps down to 34.9
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Mixed bag of sleet, rain, and when heavy big sloppy snowflakes in Clayton. Temp is at 35.3
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Spot on with this. Will be interesting how that trend plays out. Heavy shower came through here and dropped it down to 35.2 and the HRRR just initialized with me at darn near 40.
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Down to 35.4 now so for now it doesn't seem to be going back up after the heavier rain/sleet shower came through and forced some cold air down.
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As soon as the first heavy shower moved over the temp plummeted.
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Big temperature drop! 38.2 to 35.7 in just 15 minutes.
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1038 pressure now in southern Ohio.
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This is precisely my concern right now. Last night models were showing changeover here between 11 am and 1 pm, hence GSP moving my WSW up to noon. But temps have been 3-4 degrees or more above forecast all night long and continues to refuse to budge this morning. I know that we’ll see changeover by the heart of the storm, but going to miss out on a lot more qpf than initially expected before then.
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Probably just the HRRR getting a grip in its short term. Pretty sure it has a known warm bias in CAD events, so it’s correcting as it gets closer.
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Weather channel saying Lubbock, TX just reached 6 inches of snow and still snowing. Went back and looked and even at the 10 pm last night they weren’t calling for more than 4 there. Definitely juicy.
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Here in N GA we are approaching .25 of rain already, temp has finally started falling after being above 40 all night long. 39/37.7 Not optimistic on seeing changeover until late afternoon at this point.
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mPING report of sleet at 12:26.
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Fv3 looks to be sticking to its guns.
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All I know is at this point I’m ready for those NE winds to kick in cause it is just refusing to cool down right now. Still 42 with 38 dewpoint
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3km is the highest resolution I believe. And better to use with snow totals because it corrects for mixed precip better as far as I know. But I’m not sure of what it’s most effective range is.
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FWIW 3km NAM still looking colder than 12km at 25.
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Oh man.... I really hope the Fv3 hasn't been just incredibly consistently wrong this whole time cause it is just continuing to drop the hammer with every run
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Definitely a big factor, and from soundings the warm nose doesn't quite get into the far northern portion as much.
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Insanely tight gradient over Rabun County in NE GA. Less than an inch to more than a foot.
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I think the hard part is that, at least in Rabun county the gradient could be that tight between the far SW portion of the county up to around the Sky Valley/Rabun Bald area. So the warning for the county literally has to have that high of a discrepancy. But definitely the biggest one I've ever seen.
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NE GA and far Western Upstate much warmer aloft at 42 yet on the frame before and after we're much colder so who knows what to make of that.
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I'd check the counties. Cause my WSW just issued by them covers portions of Western NC, NW upstate, and far NE GA and it has a ridiculously wide range of 2 to 17 inches.
