SnowDawg

The weekend one is gonna jump around a lot for a while I'd say. Very minor H5 changes are resulting in big surface changes. Still had the 50/50 and developing block, but the trough took off north towards the great lakes instead of digging a bit more eastward like at 18z. Even if that one misses, the 50/50 and the block could be important for the following week.

I feel like a weenie even posting such a thing but this is definitely a gorgeous storm. Signs of the potential going forward if nothing else.

18z had significant changes at H5 though and had stronger CAD because of better HP placement. Doesn't mean anything though, at this range it's just throwing darts.

Happy hour GFS is officially a weenie run lol. Beautiful bowling ball big dog in the long range.

Hopefully we can make a trend out of that! Lots of positive changes. Vort dug harder out west then - NAO developed along with a 50/50 low to help fight the rising heights ahead of the trough. Strengthen those features, plus a better track and just maybe we could avoid the mid level warming and see at least some snow before a transition.

I think there are still ways to get next weekends storm to work for favored climo areas. It's just a matter of how things trend as we get into range.

It's obviously a bit disappointing, I think most of us here are all wishing for the same thing. But ultimately the trends we are seeing are things we all should have expected. The pattern next week never truly favored winter weather with the way things were on the Atlantic side with the fast flow exit off the coast. The 21st wave looked the best at first but it was always going to be a late bloomer in that setup. And IMO that ones still alive for coastal folks with a bit of NW trend. Both ensembles fully agree on there being nothing more than a short moderation between cold shots, mostly driven by the warm front on that storm being shown as a cutter right now. If the secondary cold stops showing up, well then it's probably time to panic.

Agreed. I'd rather have a long shot chance, and bet on climo bringing things back towards the southern Appalachians, than no chance at all like we've had in this torch pattern.

I'd say it'd probably be wise to wait and see how the next 2 storm systems this week impact and setup the Atlantic stream flow for next week. Just the slightest change in the fast flow exit off the coast, along with better dig from the NS energy, could increase our chances of a phase further west and a big dog for most of the forum. Without that, late bloomers will probably be the norm for the first part of the new pattern.

It didn't vanish though. It's throwing waves at us one after the other from both the NS and the STJ. No the OP models aren't showing the timing and placement of features matching up perfectly right now, but verbatim the GFS has 2 suppressed snow storms with a rain storm in between with an H5 look that doesn't match its ensemble. Suppression is always a risk but it's almost always over modeled to some degree. Euro was extremely close to giving the SE coast a nice hit at 12z. We all know these things can adjust hundreds of miles inside day 7.

Cool? If anything it's too cold. The gulf coast gets snow while the interior SE is bone dry. We need a NW trend to save us.

Such a great lead up but nothing more than a tease. Gonna get squashed.

With the 21st threat I just hope the suppression isn't overwhelming and that the flat flow off the eastern US doesn't cause a late bloomer for those of us further west.

Best case scenario right now given the GFS cold bias. That way we've got some wiggle room when it trends back the other direction.

GEFS improved and continues to advertise pattern flip without moving the date back. Take the win. You'll give yourself whiplash trying to keep up with the back and forth at this range, especially with split flow potentially developing.

ZR/Sleet/Kuchera Snow Give me this and I don't care what happens the rest of winter.

Storm around day 10 looks good to me. Weak enough to avoid overwhelming SW flow.

QPF Anomaly from the 19th to the 26th. This is why the snowfall mean fell and all the big dogs disappeared.

And it's plenty cold, GEFS is just drying up after the flip. Which is always a risk with cold weather in our parts. Funny how the GEFS is trending away from big snows after the EPS had the biggest run thus far at 0z.

Definitely the highest it's been yet. Huge increase.

I'd say, with the usual caveats of long lead times, that our first window of potentiallly having something to track soon is showing up anywhere from the 20th-24th. Lots of GEFS members with a trailing wave behind the weekend storm, varying in timing but all with some degree of wintry precip on the northern periphery.

I'd bet it gets squashed but that's just the way I like them at this range lol

That's for the 17th?

Mega - NAO look and a cutting storm with torching 2m temps.... Awesome...

Big suppressed storm around the 23rd. Here in the mountains suppression always scares me but given our past with NW trends I'm happy to see it at this time frame.