SnowDawg
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Everything posted by SnowDawg
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Just a bit more suppression again with the 20th system. Maybe someway we can keep this trend going for another 350-400 miles lol
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Is there any reason to worry about the MJO re-emerging on the non favorable side? I know for the most part the magnitude looks weak, and thankfully for now it looks to quickly loop back towards 7-8 or at least back in the circle so it’s not too bad. But what sort of wrenches could it throw, if any?
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The constant stream of cutters on the GFS is maddening....
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Cold like that worries me for over suppression, at least in my area. Too many cold chasing moisture looks in the long range thus far, hoping to see some west to east tracking gulf lows. Also that Atlantic ridge could relax just a little bit, keep things from cutting up the coast too fast.
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Just the evolution of the storm and what follows is like a Jan. 2011 redux.
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No you’re right. I believe it just peaked yesterday and is now set for a slow recovery.
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One thing bothering me, even into the long range on the GFS is the storm track seems absolutely locked in on bringing lows through central AL & GA instead of along the gulf. Need some suppression, but I’m scared to even ask for it cause then you end up with last January with the Deep South along the coast getting snow while it’s sunny and in the 20’s here lol.
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Warm nose has arrived just after the heaviest of the snow. ZR/IP/SN mix right now
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Really think they are far too low in the furthest NE county there in GA. Already at 32.4 with snow on the ground that leaves a long burst of heavy snow at the minimum before we have any warm nose concerns. 4 inches seems really low.
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Down to 32.4 here. Almost 12 hours ahead of when GSP said we’d be near freezing, and a forecast of less than a half inch of snow in the daytime period.
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Spot on with this. Will be interesting how that trend plays out. Heavy shower came through here and dropped it down to 35.2 and the HRRR just initialized with me at darn near 40.
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1038 pressure now in southern Ohio.
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This is precisely my concern right now. Last night models were showing changeover here between 11 am and 1 pm, hence GSP moving my WSW up to noon. But temps have been 3-4 degrees or more above forecast all night long and continues to refuse to budge this morning. I know that we’ll see changeover by the heart of the storm, but going to miss out on a lot more qpf than initially expected before then.
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Probably just the HRRR getting a grip in its short term. Pretty sure it has a known warm bias in CAD events, so it’s correcting as it gets closer.
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Weather channel saying Lubbock, TX just reached 6 inches of snow and still snowing. Went back and looked and even at the 10 pm last night they weren’t calling for more than 4 there. Definitely juicy.
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mPING report of sleet at 12:26.
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Fv3 looks to be sticking to its guns.
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All I know is at this point I’m ready for those NE winds to kick in cause it is just refusing to cool down right now. Still 42 with 38 dewpoint
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3km is the highest resolution I believe. And better to use with snow totals because it corrects for mixed precip better as far as I know. But I’m not sure of what it’s most effective range is.
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FWIW 3km NAM still looking colder than 12km at 25.
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Oh man.... I really hope the Fv3 hasn't been just incredibly consistently wrong this whole time cause it is just continuing to drop the hammer with every run
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Definitely a big factor, and from soundings the warm nose doesn't quite get into the far northern portion as much.
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Insanely tight gradient over Rabun County in NE GA. Less than an inch to more than a foot.
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I think the hard part is that, at least in Rabun county the gradient could be that tight between the far SW portion of the county up to around the Sky Valley/Rabun Bald area. So the warning for the county literally has to have that high of a discrepancy. But definitely the biggest one I've ever seen.
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NE GA and far Western Upstate much warmer aloft at 42 yet on the frame before and after we're much colder so who knows what to make of that.
