SnowDawg
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Everything posted by SnowDawg
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Egh.... That is huge.... Well I'm officially concerned now.
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I think they are definitely going to have to consider it because the Euro definitely shows 35 plus for much more than 3 hours.
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Well this is GSP's hourly forecast for Charlotte so, if there is snow and ice on trees, then yes I'd be somewhat concerned with gusty winds. W
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Crazy wind gusts on that last run through North GA and Western NC Mountains 30-40 with occasionally 50+. Definitely looking at near blizzard conditions in a lot of areas if that comes to fruition.
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Much better run with the mid level temps than last nights Euro, which I thought looked weird with how they were handled then, especially with the lack of cold in the ULL feature.
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I would agree but the big reason for the differences isn't really because of a warm nose from the south. It's because the initial air mass is significantly warmer because of the high placement and timing.
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Going through the individual members most aren't that bad mainly some very minimal reductions in qpf. But there are a few really low outliers that may be skewing the means a bit too far.
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Looks like its more because of a drop in qpf than anything else, and we know typically the nothern portion of the precip shield is more expansive than modeled.
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Definitely a reduction area wide on the GEFS.
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I agree. The NAM is definitely better at identifying the intensity of a CAD than the globals, but with its setup at the end of its runs as far as its concerned there’s not much of one there because of the placement of the bigger synoptic pieces. At this lead time the globals likely have a better handle on the placement of things, the NAM would just be better at translating that look to the surface at a higher resolution. Assuming the globals have the big picture right, it’s hard to give much credence to the recent runs on the NAM.
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That one says expected so I’d guess no. Typically their high end product will have a different title at the top.
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Yeah means look really good, unchanged for the most part. A lot less making it to the upper mid Atlantic and then higher totals pushing a little further east in NC. Just wish we could see the EPS maps in Kuchera to see how much support the OP has for the quicker erosion of the upper level cold, and ensuing sleet fest, despite the stronger initial push.
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Not according to the Kuchera maps on WxBell unless they're off for some reason. At 12z all of Oconee county had 2+ inches to near a foot near the border. Tonight the southern 3rd of Oconee County has less than 1 inch to around 8 inches right at the NC line. I'm not saying this is a trend in the wrong direction, it was just a single run with noticeably more warmth at the upper levels. I'm pulling for you to score big though, cause after all I'm sitting only 1 county to your west.
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Greenville County was definitely actually one of the counties with the least change in the upstate. On the Kuchera maps Greenville county probably ranges from around 2 inches at the south to just over 12 to the north near the NC border. Much bigger changes to your east towards Charlotte and West and South of you.
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Many places in the Upstate and NE Ga have those totals cut nearly in half if not more in some places. Definitely down from 12z outside of the far Northern upstate west of Charlotte where things stayed pretty much the same.
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Temps aloft were weird on that run. They pushed in much colder and much further south than on the 12z run but then just warmed ridiculously fast. pushing rain all the way into a large portion of even the mountains just based on the p-type maps.
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Kuchera on WxBell doesn't paint anywhere near that picture so likely loads of sleet and zr.
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GEFS mean snowfall looks a bit more like the 12z with snow totals pushing a bit further south in the Upstate and N Ga.
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I was at this time last year, but have since come back north after graduating last spring.
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I'm hoping that my location in the mountains in GA will only change over to sleet mainly , which is normal around here in these setups when the CAD is really stout to see more snow/sleet, while those just a bit further south get crippled with ice.
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I absolutely agree, we've all been burned before and I;m sure we remember every one of them. But that doesn't mean that we can start calling a very minimal change on a single model run a trend. Now if it starts showing warmer for a few runs in a row then it's time to worry. That may well happen, but it hasn't yet.
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FV3 still looks great, especially if you consider that its a global and likely doesn't have a handle on the CAD yet. It's not quite the 18z run for those to the south but lets be honest that was a bit of an outlier to this point. Some of you are taking very small changes in single model runs and calling them trends, while ignoring the fact that all the models have been trending colder for like the previous days worth of runs.
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Crazy difference in dewpoints at 84 between the NAM and GFS.
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That backside feature was stout on that run as well. Several more inches of snow for a lot of areas.
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Look at how hard that cold is pressing down even west of the Apps well into Tennessee. I don’t think that has happened on many models to this point.
