SnowDawg
-
Posts
1,221 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by SnowDawg
-
Definitely a reduction area wide on the GEFS.
-
I agree. The NAM is definitely better at identifying the intensity of a CAD than the globals, but with its setup at the end of its runs as far as its concerned there’s not much of one there because of the placement of the bigger synoptic pieces. At this lead time the globals likely have a better handle on the placement of things, the NAM would just be better at translating that look to the surface at a higher resolution. Assuming the globals have the big picture right, it’s hard to give much credence to the recent runs on the NAM.
-
That one says expected so I’d guess no. Typically their high end product will have a different title at the top.
-
Yeah means look really good, unchanged for the most part. A lot less making it to the upper mid Atlantic and then higher totals pushing a little further east in NC. Just wish we could see the EPS maps in Kuchera to see how much support the OP has for the quicker erosion of the upper level cold, and ensuing sleet fest, despite the stronger initial push.
-
Not according to the Kuchera maps on WxBell unless they're off for some reason. At 12z all of Oconee county had 2+ inches to near a foot near the border. Tonight the southern 3rd of Oconee County has less than 1 inch to around 8 inches right at the NC line. I'm not saying this is a trend in the wrong direction, it was just a single run with noticeably more warmth at the upper levels. I'm pulling for you to score big though, cause after all I'm sitting only 1 county to your west.
-
Greenville County was definitely actually one of the counties with the least change in the upstate. On the Kuchera maps Greenville county probably ranges from around 2 inches at the south to just over 12 to the north near the NC border. Much bigger changes to your east towards Charlotte and West and South of you.
-
Many places in the Upstate and NE Ga have those totals cut nearly in half if not more in some places. Definitely down from 12z outside of the far Northern upstate west of Charlotte where things stayed pretty much the same.
-
Temps aloft were weird on that run. They pushed in much colder and much further south than on the 12z run but then just warmed ridiculously fast. pushing rain all the way into a large portion of even the mountains just based on the p-type maps.
-
Kuchera on WxBell doesn't paint anywhere near that picture so likely loads of sleet and zr.
-
GEFS mean snowfall looks a bit more like the 12z with snow totals pushing a bit further south in the Upstate and N Ga.
-
I was at this time last year, but have since come back north after graduating last spring.
-
I'm hoping that my location in the mountains in GA will only change over to sleet mainly , which is normal around here in these setups when the CAD is really stout to see more snow/sleet, while those just a bit further south get crippled with ice.
-
I absolutely agree, we've all been burned before and I;m sure we remember every one of them. But that doesn't mean that we can start calling a very minimal change on a single model run a trend. Now if it starts showing warmer for a few runs in a row then it's time to worry. That may well happen, but it hasn't yet.
-
FV3 still looks great, especially if you consider that its a global and likely doesn't have a handle on the CAD yet. It's not quite the 18z run for those to the south but lets be honest that was a bit of an outlier to this point. Some of you are taking very small changes in single model runs and calling them trends, while ignoring the fact that all the models have been trending colder for like the previous days worth of runs.
-
Crazy difference in dewpoints at 84 between the NAM and GFS.
-
That backside feature was stout on that run as well. Several more inches of snow for a lot of areas.
-
Look at how hard that cold is pressing down even west of the Apps well into Tennessee. I don’t think that has happened on many models to this point.
-
Wow, the EPS means went up and expanded even more than the GEFS did!
-
Not much change in max snow totals on GEFS mean but they did expand and cover more ground.
-
To be fair though that is an hour we had yet to get to in the NAM and the high was still 1041 in just the frame before, so to this point it still hasn’t wavered. We’re just getting further ahead into the event.
-
Surely that CAD would be stronger? I mean the high definitely rockets out of there late but for a good portion of the event it is locked in there yet the 850s are very warm this run. Interested to see where the OP GFS stands within its suite.
-
Yeah at 84 the low is identical and the high is actually out ahead a little better with a slightly better push in the 850s
-
Saw a met on twitter post a blurb from the Norman, Oklahoma forecast discussion noting that they were concerned about forecasting dewpoints and wet bulbs too high because the airmass may not moderate as much as expected due to snowpack. I know high strength and placement is more important here but if the airmass is slightly colder than expected that can only help things.
-
Wow..... This one exited me nearly as much as that bonkers 12z run a couple days ago. Maybe even more given that it’s a couple days closer to the event. This one has been fun to track for sure.
-
Euro snow totals took a big jump SW also just like theGFS and GEFS.
