SnowDawg
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Everything posted by SnowDawg
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I'll take that look. I know NW trends would eventually put my area in the sweet spot lol
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Big changes come just past 240 and locks in all the way to the end.
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GEFS mean. All of this in the SE falls between the 20th and the 26th. EPS snowfall is still coming in so I haven't seen it yet but based on H5 I'd be surprised if there wasn't some.
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Just took a peek at it myself and wow... Not only the epo ridge flipping the pattern but beginning to hint at blocking to. All the while with still above average precip. The pessimist in me is trying hard to keep my hopes down but things are looking very exciting.
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Go EPS!
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Wish the GFS and Euro weren't so far apart though. For here in North GA that looks good if it can just get any moisture far enough north. Would be happy with just a tenth of an inch or two liquid from a small finger of precip sliding west to east. But Euro is just a standard frontal passage with a warmup ahead of it.
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Euro shows plenty of moisture, but it's nearly 50 degrees...
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Euro only goes out 240? GFS isn't on board for a pattern change before then either. Even before 240 both models are starting the process by starting to build a ridge off the west coast to shutoff the fire hose of pacific air.
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The geographic spread in snowfall went way down on the GEFS. But where it had snow, in the Mtns, the mean went up a bit. Using Asheville, as an example in the bullseye area, had 10 out of 20 members with snow plus the control. 7 members were over 2 inches and the highest member was 8 inches.
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Nice 2-3 inch bullseye over WNC on the EPS mean snowfall. Eyeballing looks like 17-18 members showing any snow in the Mtns with 12-13 members being 2 inch plus and 3-5 members being big dogs.
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That is one beautiful rain storm though. Shame there's no cold, cause that is a classic look.
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GEFS backed off slightly but still much higher than yesterday. Bullseye still over WNC
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I would imagine at that strength favored mountain regions could see SE flow snow for a while afterwards even if not very visible on radar.
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Small differences but it's definitely still there, which given the oddity of a look like that, just it showing up back to back is something lol. Ensemble trends is the key over the next few days, especially seeing if the EPS ever joins in.
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12 out of 20 plus the control for MBY. Definitely has piqued my interest. Really hope to see the EPS start playing along.
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Wow, wish I could cash that in now. Hate that that is a week out look lol
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GEFS for the closest station to me. Yesterday at 12z vs today at 12z. Won't call it a trend yet but it's certainly a step in the right direction. Hope we can keep it up.
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So -NAO/-AO=Torch now.... Wonder why everyone has been clamoring for this over the past decade+ without one during the winter months?
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Ensemble is at least still favoring slightly below normal temps through the period. Cause the main run just showed temps go above normal on the 20th and not go back below until the 27th. Just our luck, - NAO shows up and things start trending towards torch lol
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I'm just gonna go in expecting it to cut. Just like pretty much every single potential "threat" we've seen since last December's storm.
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In fact the CMC and Euro low locations are almost identical at the end of the run. I suppose a phase is needed to pull the cold down?
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There's actually something there this time though. It just gets super suppressed, similar to the CMC, it's halfway to Cuba. It's quite warm on that run though, which is odd given the suppression. Has pretty much the whole continent above normal by day 10.
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The HP gets all the way up to 1044 on that run! Just the slightest nudge south with the cold is all I'd need. That run brought back terrible memories of last December's storm. 14+ inches just across the line in NC while I sat at home just 15 miles to the SW with a sloppy wet 3 inches that by the time it stopped raining was basically gone.
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Anyone seen vorticity on the Euro? Is the energy sheered, suppressed, torn to bits? Or is there literally nothing there? If there's at least some pice of energy there to work with, then eventually we could see a signal pop up on the Euro.
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So what are the realistic things we need to hope for to get this thing colder? Better placement of the 50/50 and the HP? Slightly better track? Little of both? Be nice to get the Euro to look similar.
