SnowDawg
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Everything posted by SnowDawg
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I'll take that look. I know NW trends would eventually put my area in the sweet spot lol
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Big changes come just past 240 and locks in all the way to the end.
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GEFS mean. All of this in the SE falls between the 20th and the 26th. EPS snowfall is still coming in so I haven't seen it yet but based on H5 I'd be surprised if there wasn't some.
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Just took a peek at it myself and wow... Not only the epo ridge flipping the pattern but beginning to hint at blocking to. All the while with still above average precip. The pessimist in me is trying hard to keep my hopes down but things are looking very exciting.
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Go EPS!
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Wish the GFS and Euro weren't so far apart though. For here in North GA that looks good if it can just get any moisture far enough north. Would be happy with just a tenth of an inch or two liquid from a small finger of precip sliding west to east. But Euro is just a standard frontal passage with a warmup ahead of it.
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Euro shows plenty of moisture, but it's nearly 50 degrees...
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So -NAO/-AO=Torch now.... Wonder why everyone has been clamoring for this over the past decade+ without one during the winter months?
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Warm nose has arrived just after the heaviest of the snow. ZR/IP/SN mix right now
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Really think they are far too low in the furthest NE county there in GA. Already at 32.4 with snow on the ground that leaves a long burst of heavy snow at the minimum before we have any warm nose concerns. 4 inches seems really low.
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Down to 32.4 here. Almost 12 hours ahead of when GSP said we’d be near freezing, and a forecast of less than a half inch of snow in the daytime period.
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Spot on with this. Will be interesting how that trend plays out. Heavy shower came through here and dropped it down to 35.2 and the HRRR just initialized with me at darn near 40.
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1038 pressure now in southern Ohio.
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This is precisely my concern right now. Last night models were showing changeover here between 11 am and 1 pm, hence GSP moving my WSW up to noon. But temps have been 3-4 degrees or more above forecast all night long and continues to refuse to budge this morning. I know that we’ll see changeover by the heart of the storm, but going to miss out on a lot more qpf than initially expected before then.
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Probably just the HRRR getting a grip in its short term. Pretty sure it has a known warm bias in CAD events, so it’s correcting as it gets closer.
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Weather channel saying Lubbock, TX just reached 6 inches of snow and still snowing. Went back and looked and even at the 10 pm last night they weren’t calling for more than 4 there. Definitely juicy.
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mPING report of sleet at 12:26.
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Fv3 looks to be sticking to its guns.
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All I know is at this point I’m ready for those NE winds to kick in cause it is just refusing to cool down right now. Still 42 with 38 dewpoint
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3km is the highest resolution I believe. And better to use with snow totals because it corrects for mixed precip better as far as I know. But I’m not sure of what it’s most effective range is.
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FWIW 3km NAM still looking colder than 12km at 25.
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Oh man.... I really hope the Fv3 hasn't been just incredibly consistently wrong this whole time cause it is just continuing to drop the hammer with every run
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Definitely a big factor, and from soundings the warm nose doesn't quite get into the far northern portion as much.
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Insanely tight gradient over Rabun County in NE GA. Less than an inch to more than a foot.
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I think the hard part is that, at least in Rabun county the gradient could be that tight between the far SW portion of the county up to around the Sky Valley/Rabun Bald area. So the warning for the county literally has to have that high of a discrepancy. But definitely the biggest one I've ever seen.
