SnowDawg
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Everything posted by SnowDawg
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I'm viewing on WxBell so I'm not sure about the rules on me sharing that but I will say for your location your mean is probably around a foot maybe a little more on that run. Compare that to the last run where it was probably 9 or so and then even better if you consider how far north the 12z run went when that areas mean dropped all the way to around 5-6. So a pretty substatial trend south over the last 2 GEFS runs.
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GEFS mean snowfall came south again, and put slightly higher totals in western NC around Asheville and surrounding areas.
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Warm nose will almost definitely be more extensive than on global models. But I’d also say with the NAM now trending better with high placement and a little more cold that especially for areas further west it may not yet have a complete handle on exactly how the CAD is going to play out. So I think there’s going to be some give and take as we move forward on NAM runs, warm nose is absolutely going to rob some places while others may improve if the wedge keeps showing up better on further runs.
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High placement looked much improved, especially over that ghastly 12z run. Not perfect but 2 small steps in the right direction since that run.
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NAM is definitely way colder a than 850 at least at hr 45. Let’s see how it goes
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Yeah that honestly makes a lot of sense. WPC might want to take a look at changing that though. Definitely unsuitable for public consumption in that state. Then again I’m sure the messiness and duration of this storm make it much worse than it normally is.
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Mets on twitter are absolutely bashing GSP for this ridiculous basically unreadable graphic lol
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Well if the NAM is right we are absolutely getting crippled with ZR as much as 1.7 inches in places. So at this point we better hope we can escape with a bunch of sleet.
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From what I've read from mets out there this has been due to a weaker system over all and not the temps which is gonna be our problem.
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Well Chris Justus definitely isn't agreeing with GSP on his live video right now.
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Egh.... That is huge.... Well I'm officially concerned now.
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I think they are definitely going to have to consider it because the Euro definitely shows 35 plus for much more than 3 hours.
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Well this is GSP's hourly forecast for Charlotte so, if there is snow and ice on trees, then yes I'd be somewhat concerned with gusty winds. W
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Crazy wind gusts on that last run through North GA and Western NC Mountains 30-40 with occasionally 50+. Definitely looking at near blizzard conditions in a lot of areas if that comes to fruition.
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Much better run with the mid level temps than last nights Euro, which I thought looked weird with how they were handled then, especially with the lack of cold in the ULL feature.
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I would agree but the big reason for the differences isn't really because of a warm nose from the south. It's because the initial air mass is significantly warmer because of the high placement and timing.
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Going through the individual members most aren't that bad mainly some very minimal reductions in qpf. But there are a few really low outliers that may be skewing the means a bit too far.
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Looks like its more because of a drop in qpf than anything else, and we know typically the nothern portion of the precip shield is more expansive than modeled.
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Definitely a reduction area wide on the GEFS.
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I agree. The NAM is definitely better at identifying the intensity of a CAD than the globals, but with its setup at the end of its runs as far as its concerned there’s not much of one there because of the placement of the bigger synoptic pieces. At this lead time the globals likely have a better handle on the placement of things, the NAM would just be better at translating that look to the surface at a higher resolution. Assuming the globals have the big picture right, it’s hard to give much credence to the recent runs on the NAM.
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That one says expected so I’d guess no. Typically their high end product will have a different title at the top.
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Yeah means look really good, unchanged for the most part. A lot less making it to the upper mid Atlantic and then higher totals pushing a little further east in NC. Just wish we could see the EPS maps in Kuchera to see how much support the OP has for the quicker erosion of the upper level cold, and ensuing sleet fest, despite the stronger initial push.
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Not according to the Kuchera maps on WxBell unless they're off for some reason. At 12z all of Oconee county had 2+ inches to near a foot near the border. Tonight the southern 3rd of Oconee County has less than 1 inch to around 8 inches right at the NC line. I'm not saying this is a trend in the wrong direction, it was just a single run with noticeably more warmth at the upper levels. I'm pulling for you to score big though, cause after all I'm sitting only 1 county to your west.
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Greenville County was definitely actually one of the counties with the least change in the upstate. On the Kuchera maps Greenville county probably ranges from around 2 inches at the south to just over 12 to the north near the NC border. Much bigger changes to your east towards Charlotte and West and South of you.
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Many places in the Upstate and NE Ga have those totals cut nearly in half if not more in some places. Definitely down from 12z outside of the far Northern upstate west of Charlotte where things stayed pretty much the same.
