SnowDawg

Seems like pretty much everything has been cutting for a couple years now, so just to see that storm track on the GFS is encouraging. Just a little bit stronger push on the cold air and we'd be in business.

First thing that stuck out to me. Massive trend southward with that system over the last 3-4 runs.

I feel like our cold source just has to be rather unimpressive otherwise I feel the cold press would be much better given this look.

Man that comma head snow in the mountains on last night's Euro was the stuff of dreams... Too bad it's 8 + days out.

Looks to me like the GFS finished with 3 straight threats. Starting with the 14th one that missed this time, then a snow/ice storm on the 18th, then a suppressed system at the end of the run. Obviously at these lead times it probably means absolutely nothing but for now I'll take some fantasy storms cause we didn't even get many of those after the December storm last year. At least it shows the pattern over the next 2 weeks may be conducive, even if as always we need to thread a needle on timing and perfect placement.

That was my thoughts for the north GA mtns too. The switch to ice looks too fast to me for that setup. That high is fairly strong and the low isn't tracking inland along the gulf. We rarely ever see ice if there is ice all the way past Atlanta. Typically if we are getting ice, it's just plain rain in Atlanta. I don't doubt we would more than likely finish as ice as usual, but after the majority of precip has fallen as snow/sleet.

They don’t support the snow right now. But there is generally support for precipitation from a gulf system at that time. No reason to worry about anything else at this point. I just want to see a system showing up.

There is some ensemble support for a system at least being in the gulf during that time period. Some suppressed, some warm and wet, some without it, and a handful with snow. At this lead time I just want to see the general idea that there could be a system down there, that’s good enough for me. First place any of us even seen the Feb 1st system was on the EPS a couple days ago.

So what exactly made last nights Euro and as you mentioned several ensemble members favor the mountains for this event? Because as it’s modeled it should absolutely favor NW GA.

The weeklies looked absolutely stunning. A brief relaxation in the pattern at the beginning of February, then back to deep eastern troughing all the way into March.

Better yet the EPS as a whole supports precipitation coming out of the gulf in that time period. Obviously, probably not every member is snow at this point. But just seeing support build for a gulf system is enticing to me.

OP Euro was close to a phasing event over the western Gulf on the 12z run for the same time period. Northern stream was still just a bit too fast for the full phase, so it ended up just being a brief interaction. But you can see the precip start to blossom in the AR/LA region. Last nights control was a great example of the potential, if we can just get the timing right.

You can also include Eastern Georgia in on areas that really deserve to get something. Not up my way in the mountains, but the south of 85 Athens area eastward into SC. They got to sit and watch it snow over a foot in Atlanta suburbs in December 2017 while it rained all day there. I think they've seen a trace to an inch total since the Feb. 2014 storm

All the ensembles agreee on the EPO going deep negative in the medium range, but climbing back to neutral a few days into February. The weeklies carry this neutral look all the way to march.

Don’t worry, the pacific jet will shake things up plenty....

Same story here in NE GA. Forecast high of 40, only got to 35. Still at 35 with dewpoint just in last 30 minutes going from 0 to 3.

Considering how good this weekend looked 9-10 days out I’m not falling for this again.

I’ve only been doing this for 5-6 years but I swear, seeing a low suppressed to Miami while we stay warm is one of the weirdest things I’ve ever seen...

How accurately does the NAM account for virga?

Yep. Seems like heights fall in the west at the worst possible time, when we need the ridge to pop.

Resulted in too much stream separation. Wave gets strung out and left behind in the SW.

Regardless of what end result ends up being, GFS continues to trend further west with our piece of energy as it begins to dive into lower 48.

It’s favored the mountains from the beginning, although means have been on a steady downward trend for them as well, but that’s what has made the multitude of eastern solutions from the OP’s more puzzling. I’d expect to at least see an eastern bullseye as well, depicting the potential for that solution.

Yeah definitely not the classic case of a late bloomer. Just for all intensive purposes, at the surface it behaved like one.

It really did look a lot like 93 just then, only a later start and further east. Pressure bombed crazy hard over New England though just like back then though.