SnowDawg

Ensembles, ensembles, ensembles! I don’t care what any run of an OP does right now. Seeing support gathering around a specific date on many ensemble members is what I want to start seeing right now. Hoping 0z will keep up what 18z started on the GEFS. Closest station to me at 12z vs. 18z. A lot more members started showing the goods around the 27th/28th

Even saying the models warmed significantly is a bit facetious. They went back to the solution they’ve been showing for quite a while now, after yesterday’s bonkers midday runs and whatever the hell the GFS was trying to do last night. Hanging your entire outlook on individual OP runs is ridiculous normally, and even more so at a time as chaotic as this.

The 0z Euro trended that direction big time last night. I wrote the 24th storm off days ago, so seeing it at least become interesting is surprising to me.

Really good run on the Euro. 24th is getting much more interesting than I expected, a couple clippers, and a nice event unfolding at the end of the run again.

The magical cold pattern is setting up exactly when we've been tracking it to for more than the last week and it hasn't moved once. It was always going to be first shot on the 20th, brief moderation, then established pattern after the 24th. Neither major ensembles support cold shots with warmups past that point, at least to the end of their runs. I don't get all the freaking out today, nothing has changed in over a week. The timing hasn't moved, some have just gotten impatient. NWS says they expect the MJO to have little impact on upcoming pattern, besides its rocketing through the unfavorable phases and will be approaching phase 7 or the circle by the 26th/27th. 12z EPS Telleconections:

Lol, literally every frame of the weeklies past Jan. 24th is below normal. I mentioned weeks 3 and 4 because he was questioning the longevity of the pattern flip.

I think he’s plenty excited. And the weeklies just came in colder again for weeks 3-4. This pattern is as good as we can hope for. Is it a guarantee at snow? No, welcome to the southeast.

Probably just a one run thing. Euro hadn’t done that before that and nothing on either ensembles have backed away from the -NAO.

We’ve not once had a legitimate winter storm threat yet, so idk what you’re punting. Something popping up once once on an OP run is not a storm threat. The only thing we’ve really been tracking is the pattern flip, and it got pushed back one time because it was apparent pretty early on that the SSW impacts would be delayed. Since then it has been rock steady, warning shot on the 20th, and full on pattern flip after the 24th/25th.

I would probably lean towards zr. Looked closer at that late blooming storm on the 28th/29th and that looks like one massive virga storm after the very beginning. Just astonishing looking at these soundings. This is the beginning of the storm. And this is the very next panel, just 12 hrs later.... Just ridiculous cold, but also ridiculous drying of the upper levels.... I would love at some point in my lifetime just to see it snow in the teens here much less what that is trying to do.

Again another late bloomer, this time near the end of the run. Despite losing the storm on the 26th, I actually liked that look better for that time frame. It was very close to getting stream separation and leaving the southern piece behind to potentially slide in under the trough. Regardless though, with our best time frame being beyond the 24th/25th ensembles are the best tool. But I feel better about the end of the month than I did a few days ago. The trough axis slides east more after the 25th with plenty of energy flying around to work with.

Honestly because of the vast run to run differences on how its handling individual pieces of energy we probably shouldn't even be looking past 4-5 days much less nearly 10. Too much energy flying around right now to have any idea at all for that time frame when such subtle changes can make huge differences in surface weather.

Lots of late bloomers on that run that were close to being good forum wide, instead NC keeps most of it to themselves again lol

That has been surprisingly consistent to this point, I don't expect it to change. Pattern establishes following the 2nd storm, questions in my opinion are the longevity and whether it ever matches up with moisture. This is the GEFS from last Thursday for same exact time though, to this point the goal posts haven't moved.

I mean I'm as skeptical as anyone on this ever amounting to anything for us in the Southeast, but an hour 384 on the GFS with absolutely no ensemble support from the GEFS or EPS should be thrown out like the garbage it is.

I’m not really cliff diving yet because at this point I’ve yet to even climb up. Outside of a fluke run at 18z yesterday there hasn’t been anything close to a credible threat for the SE US. Just rather consistent troughing over the Midwest, the west Atlantic ridge overlapping the East coast, and storms constantly cutting way inland. Now we may get lucky and score perfect timing, get a wave to hold back, and a high pressure move across in tandem to keep it suppressed. But that will be the exception, not the rule until the pattern changes a bit hopefully by February.

Realistically what are going to have to have happen to stop these troughs from bottoming our over Texas and actually start setting up over the Eastern US? Outside of scoring perfect timing (see yesterday’s 18z GFS) I just don’t see how we can possibly get anything noteworthy from this setup.

Well despite the GFS losing the storm at 0z, it seems it actually gained support in the ensembles. 1st pic is 18z ensembles and 2nd is 0z, pretty substantial increase.

Take the wins where we can get them. At least it’s not 384 lol. Perfect example of the timing we need, gotta have that high moving in tandem to stop it from cutting.

Hopefully we keep seeing that, although the weeklies at that lead time don’t give me much confidence. Last few days of January and early February will be our key time period. Before then the trough centering over Texas and that Atlantic ridge overlapping the coast is going to make for a lot of cutters unless we can get perfect timing.

I guess this just goes to show you can talk about a perfect pattern all you want, but in the South it will absolutely always take threading needle and getting perfect timing to get snow. At least there’s no shortage of waves to try and time up.

Yep. Evolution of the pattern is fairly identical to the GEFS. Transient first shot, then following waves help to finish beating down the West Atlantic ridge and establish the Greenland block. After that things seem rather locked in.

Yeah that very well could be a response to the Euro starting to pick up MJO going through unfavorable phases. Only solace is, that it’s moving fast and could be all the way back to more favorable in a weeks time. And even on the GFS/GEFS the lock down pattern flip has moved from behind the 20th system to behind the 23rd-25th one.

I think the 24th-25th storm is our best bet in the immediate long range. 1040+ high over the NE, low on the gulf coast, arctic air behind, and at least some lingering cold from the initial cold burst. I think the storm is cutting too soon on the GFS with the high where it is.

Looks like 3 chances at winter weather just between the 20th and the 28th. Might miss on all 3 but scoring just 1 could make the winter for those that missed the December event. And that's just the first week in the pattern that should last a couple weeks at least, if not more if the Greenland block is actually real this time.