SnowDawg
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Everything posted by SnowDawg
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Wow, the EPS means went up and expanded even more than the GEFS did!
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Not much change in max snow totals on GEFS mean but they did expand and cover more ground.
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To be fair though that is an hour we had yet to get to in the NAM and the high was still 1041 in just the frame before, so to this point it still hasn’t wavered. We’re just getting further ahead into the event.
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Surely that CAD would be stronger? I mean the high definitely rockets out of there late but for a good portion of the event it is locked in there yet the 850s are very warm this run. Interested to see where the OP GFS stands within its suite.
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Yeah at 84 the low is identical and the high is actually out ahead a little better with a slightly better push in the 850s
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Saw a met on twitter post a blurb from the Norman, Oklahoma forecast discussion noting that they were concerned about forecasting dewpoints and wet bulbs too high because the airmass may not moderate as much as expected due to snowpack. I know high strength and placement is more important here but if the airmass is slightly colder than expected that can only help things.
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Wow..... This one exited me nearly as much as that bonkers 12z run a couple days ago. Maybe even more given that it’s a couple days closer to the event. This one has been fun to track for sure.
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Euro snow totals took a big jump SW also just like theGFS and GEFS.
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Definitely true. But at least as of 6z, I haven’t looked at 12z yet, the OP GFS is among the furthest north of its suite. GEFS supports a southern solution at least for now.
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6 plus from 85 north, higher totals the further NW you go. 1 inch totals going all the way to Columbia and maybe a little further at face value.
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Although max snow totals went down on GEFS, the snow coverage expanded quite a bit in all directions. A number of GEFS members have nudged south and west with snow totals. At 6z there were only around 6-7 members showing snow of at least an inch getting into most of N GA, and at 12z there are now 11-12. And the mean shows that with mean snowfall going up a bit across all of N GA and deeper into SC and nudging east towards the coast in NC. Yet another sign of models maybe starting to see stronger cold air transport.
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Hmm, would be interested in seeing the snow totals for that assuming that the cold is there. I know for my self and others in N GA and the upstate a track through northern Florida is what we typically want.
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Looks like maybe GFS is trying to catch up on stronger CAD. Couple runs in a row now where temps have gotten just a bit colder each time.
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On Weatherbell. It’s a paid site. But just speaking on the rest of N GA I’m lucky to be living where I am I suppose. Outside of the extreme NE mountains snowy members is probably more in the range of 10-15 out of 51 depending on exact location. But I guess it’s pretty much to be expected when climatology greatly favors the mountains in N GA when it comes to snow.
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Well with 42 out of 51 members on EPS at least giving me around a couple inches and like 16 of those showing bigger hits of 6 plus I’m definitely excited to keep tracking this one. Backing well away from the cliff I was at during some earlier runs lol
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High sticks around and everything on that FV3 run yet it’s still just a little too warm. Hoping CAD is underdone as it usually is IMBY. Otherwise I’m gonna need the low to calm down just a little lol
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Yeah the snow total product on the FV3 is just straight up broke. Showing foot plus totals in places that should be rain for pretty much the entire event.
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FV3 looking way north of 12z
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Just can’t never get a high to lock in throughout a storm anymore... Always rocketing off the coast as soon as the precip arrives.
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Looks like a pretty big increase in the mean for some places unless I’m mistaken.
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It was definitely last year some time. I remember it well. It was one of the only times after the December storm that things looked interesting IMBY cause everything kept suppressing to the coast and leaving us dry here in far NE GA. But that suppressed all the way to Cuba in the end lol.
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Okay.....I’m not one to often get too worked up over model runs, especially at this lead time, but that Euro run with its 30 inch+ maxima right over my house in NE GA is making it a little hard to breathe right now lol
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The December to Remember 7th-8th blue turd winter threat thread.
SnowDawg replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
It has the temps steadily climbing region wide throughout the day, even under the heaviest precip. Makes no sense without any large scale warm air advection. I would understand if it was saying some places wouldn’t wetbulb low enough, but for temps to sky rocket under the precip shield seems unlikely. -
The December to Remember 7th-8th blue turd winter threat thread.
SnowDawg replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
At least according to radar that transition is already happening in MS. -
The December to Remember 7th-8th blue turd winter threat thread.
SnowDawg replied to lilj4425's topic in Southeastern States
NE GA upgraded to warning.
