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SnowDawg

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Everything posted by SnowDawg

  1. SnowDawg
    Changes on the ensembles looking not so good for western areas... EPS was already pretty suppressed and dry at 00z last night and its even worse today. And despite the super amped OP run, the GEFS is moving that direction too. We'll see where things end up, but there's no questioning this has been the name of the game in this pattern after we scored that first storm in January.
  2. SnowDawg
    Key to remember that last nights run was an outlier from the EPS. This run just aligns more closely to what the Euro suite has been saying the whole time, supporting mostly a flat/suppressed system. We'll see over the coming days if more members start to move towards the amped GFS or vice versa.
  3. SnowDawg
    Definitely pulling for a solution more like the Euro, and just hope to get lucky on QPF. It advances the cold front much further than the GFS behind our end of the week rain maker. With some antecedent cold would definitely be more snow and sleet and not the ZR mess from the GFS.
  4. SnowDawg
    Nice band just developed all the way down my way. A good qtr inch down and still snowing lightly. Rarely ever see anything other than flurries out of NW flow so I'm pleasantly surprised with this.
  5. SnowDawg
    I think our old nemesis the southeast ridge can help us out in this situation by fighting against suppression, not letting the Arctic boundary drop too far south of us, and enhancing the thermal gradient some.
  6. SnowDawg
    GEFS mean looked liked it both slowed down the southern energy and sped up the northern portion. But the changes are ultimately small, and even on the ensembles one run can't be considered a trend, especially with such a razor thin margin on sensible impacts.
  7. SnowDawg
    Looks more like the 12z run than 18z. Southern energy is lagging some again so the phase is later.
  8. SnowDawg
    Ugh, this storm is going to be absolute torture for North GA. Absolute perfect setup missing just wide right. And I thought last weekend was frustrating...
  9. SnowDawg
    The last frame here wasn't just a big jump south but west as well, and the trough is closer to a neutral tilt much earlier. Is it crazy to hold on to hope here in N GA and Upstate area that this trend can keep up enough to get us in the game either with a quick gulf draw or quicker cyclogenesis in the Atlantic throwing some back?
  10. SnowDawg
    At this point, I think for those of us on the west side of this sub-forum this pattern we are currently in breaking down isn't the worst thing in the world. The blocking from early on is gone and now the northern stream is just crushing every chance we get for some development in the gulf. Keep the cold air in Canada, get some variability, and try to time something up. Yeah gambling on timing is always tough, but lets be honest the vast majority of our storms are just that.
  11. SnowDawg
    Yep, very similar to 18z GFS. Southern shortwave lagging way behind will be flat and squash the developing activity in the gulf. Extrapolated forward either a weak partial phase late off the coast or a complete miss like the GFS.
  12. SnowDawg
  13. SnowDawg
    I wouldn't even call what the 18z GFS did a stop of the trend it was on. If anything it was a continuation of it digging the wave more and more SW. Too much of a good thing causing the phase to miss almost entirely.
  14. SnowDawg
    I've always thought a college system from further back would suit the NFL well. Drives start at midfield or the opposite 40, forcing teams to have to get a first down or two to even attempt a field goal, and it's far enough back the whole playbook is open including deep. Other than that rules are the same as college, trade possessions until there is a winner.
  15. SnowDawg
    Beautiful trends on the GEFS today with the placement of the mean trough. Exactly the ensemble support I was hoping to see start building before I let myself get remotely interested in this chance. Still not overly optimistic this far west, but we'll see. Would hate to be left out on back to back snows.
  16. SnowDawg
    I don't mind seeing that on the OP necessarily, but we need the ensembles to start trending away from that late phase offshore scenario soon. Otherwise runs like the previous two are just outliers among the suite.
  17. SnowDawg
    Almost all ensemble members support a storm. But the consensus for now is a late bloomer, with the trough off the Atlantic coast. Basically the 18z GFS is roughly the ensemble mean at the moment. Hopefully we can get some positive trends over the weekend.
  18. SnowDawg
    Hopefully some ensemble support will actually start to build for that timeframe cause until then these are just meaningless fantasy runs for me.
  19. SnowDawg
    Seeing the GFS pretty consistently show that this week, I did think back to this event. One of my favorite of the past few years for sure.
  20. SnowDawg
    That's what I was wondering. If it's possible that they are making adjustments based only on the northern stream wave digging further and may still be underestimating the NW extent of the precip shield? HRRR still struggling to get the precip field right in Texas and Louisiana in real time.
  21. SnowDawg
    This is Atlanta's 2014 snowmagedon happening for the Carolinas and maybe far East GA this time. All the way inside 12-24 hours to go little to no snow was expected from Atlanta northward. By the middle of the next day the entire forecast area was under winter storm warnings. Coincidentally that storm has been the top cips analog most of the week.
  22. SnowDawg
    Honestly, overrunning setups are a mystery to me when it comes to precip generation but do we even need a NW trend or just for things to amp up a little quicker to have precip thrown back west downstream of us? I feel like given the orientation of the stalled front we could get ours even without screwing those to the east over, sort of like a 2017 with a flatter ENE trajectory instead of NNE. I wish I knew more about overrunning though because I don't know what to look for to see if this is even possible.
  23. SnowDawg
    Hi-Res models consistently giving North GA a decent snow, globals and ensembles saying mostly bone dry. Not sure what to think. NWS Atlanta and GSP are in a really tough spot right now.
  24. SnowDawg
    No kidding. Just 4 pages in, 84hr NAM 12km throwing the first warning shots that lot more QPF was coming west about 3-4 days out. Sounds pretty familiar. Obviously 2017 is a ridiculous benchmark, but it's clear comparing where we were 3-4 days out then to now, that absolutely no one in the Western Carolinas and N GA should be giving up on this one.
  25. SnowDawg
    Probably closing in on 2 inches from the wraparound alone right now, has been intermittently very heavy. I think storm total is some where in the 7-8 inch range but we lost quite a bit this morning to melting while it rained for several hours.
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