SnowDawg

Man that is a painful run for North GA. Snow south of Augusta but none up here in the mountains.

Boundary temps are largely insignificant in a ULL setup. Pretty much the entire SE is at play. ULL track and intensity determines where snow falls.

18z looks more like the 0z from last night. (Edit: oops, meant 06z from this morning) ULL takes more of a north easterly track than the 12z, focusing the heavier snow in the mtns and foothills from NGA/upstate SC up through the mid-Atlantic. Was actually a hair weaker with the surface low than 12z. Still a great signal and too small a change to be focused on at this range on a global model. Just shows how important the track of that ULL will be for individual backyards if we manage to reel this threat in. ULL's can produce big winners and big losers with very little margin between.

Just crazy trend at H5 on the EPS from 12z yesterday to 12z today.

First time all winter we've seen positive trends at this timeframe. This has pretty much been the range when long range threats have went sour so far.

Quit focusing so much on surface depictions right now. ULL snow is a top down process. Anybody who has experienced it knows how fast the surface temps can drop as long as it's cranking. This event will be entirely predicated on the track/tilt/strength of the ULL. That has improved on basically all guidance since yesterday. The question is will it trend far enough to matter.

The Canadians ensemble also made big movements as well. Much like the GEFS it's sort of split right now, but the trend is clear.

So the GEFS still largely favors more of a positive tilt solution meaning very little snow outside the mtns with NW flow. This is apparent when you look at the individual members snowfall. The mean is being generated by a handful that do go neutral/negative and produce heavy snow. It's not all bad though, despite that being the consensus at the moment the trend towards more amplified solutions is clear. If we can keep it going for a few more runs I'd expect the snow mean to start jumping big time. It's all a wait and see game right now. But at least it's a plausible look.

At the surface sure. But at H5 it has trended much closer towards the GFS it's just too positive tilt and doesn't get fully cutoff.

Lol, our luck somehow the forecasted rapid onset El Niño is going to turn into La Niña coming back for round four by the time we get past summer.

Has ultimately been the trend on most guidance the last day or so. Either weak missed phase or phase too late with the low popping 2-400 miles too far east. Has been a longshot for anything more than nuisance ice from the beginning though realistically. Shame considering the usual culprits from this winter (SE Ridge/Cutting track) aren't to blame for this likely miss.

Couldn't have said it better. I enjoy tracking the weather, so I'm gonna track every single threat big or small until it no longer becomes a threat or we get lucky and score one. Burying ones head in the sand for fear of being disappointed seems like much more of a weenie move to me.

Have been hoping to see things trend towards the 0z gfs solution from the 29th. The LP formed much quicker over southern GA instead of out over the Atlantic. This aided the wedge and the heavier precip helped lock in some top down cooling as well. Was all snow and sleet from the N GA mtns up the chain, and sleet and ZR south and east of there in the CAD region. A couple ensemble members have held onto this idea every run, but for now remains a longshot.

It'd be a real shame to finally get a real workable solution for a big portion of this forum only for the trough to end up too far east so the storm gets going too late.

GFS started hinting at the same storm at 0z last night. It's still there now just a bit suppressed/late blooming. I generally like the look cause I feel CAD is our only hope in this pattern.

Would be nice to see some ensemble support for that Miller A on the GFS starting around 180 hours out. Verbatim that's a wet snow paste bomb all the way up the mountain chain. Soundings even for here showed all snow between 31-33 degrees throughout. CMC has the same exact storm just warmer, showing ice to rain, to backside snow.

The wave of interest on the Euro is actually held back a day longer and then super suppressed down in Florida. Not that I think it matters though, if it were to come north it'd just bring its warmth with it. As others have noted the in between scenario needed just doesn't seem likely with no mechanism to hold the cold HP in place. Would take absolute perfect timing/placement between the high and low moving in sync.

I understand the sentiment but there's been plenty of crap winters with no real established cold that we've won the timing lottery in. Let's be honest, a very large portion of our winter events over time have probably come from transient cold. I'm certainly not confident in seeing winter precip, but I'm definitely not gonna thrown in the towel til the climatolagy window for my area closes.

When will we ever see another Miller A storm?!? High is weaker and a little quicker but the Miller B with a stronger parent low in East Tennessee is a real killer. Clearly a storm signal, but we're gonna need to thread the needle. Timing/strength of multiple features is critical.

Just a tiny bit quicker HP on the Euro to establish that CAD better ahead of time would be perfect but obviously no reason to nitpick at this range.

As far as I know 4 years is unprecedented in modern times. I know the forecast right now is for a rapid flip to neutral by late spring and El niño by the end of the summer/early fall. Just feels tough to have much faith in predictions the way things have been going.

Well, following that GFS run.... Y'all think we finally actually kick this La Niña to the curb next winter? Or are we stuck in this hellscape of a pattern forever lol

At this range I'll take my chances on this look with a 50/50 low and a 1040 high and just assume the GFS is wrong about the gulf low just waiting around until it can cut west. At this point it's nice just to have something at least minimally interesting to follow.

I'd be interested to see how far the storm at the end could push the boundary. For whatever it's worth its this 3rd through the 7th or so period that the ensembles are at least trying to signal some overunning fun. I know it's day 10 plus so what's the use, but I guess we've got to talk about something lol.

Longtime lurker here, spend most my time on the SE forum, but here in North GA I'm kinda stuck in between this one and a very carolina centric one over there. Definitely brings 2015 to mind for me. Had all but given up on winter by the start of February and then in the span of about ten days had three winter storms. First was a heavy ice and sleet event, then a light snow and ice event, and finished with a big Miller A all snow event. No doubt if you can get the setup just right, our hits can come in bunches, even within an otherwise mostly forgetful winter.