the_other_guy

I think the shock of what has been going on for 20 years is finally setting in We have been gradually getting warmer throughout the AN snow Now the snowy pattern has eased and it really is apparent how much of our “winter” we lost. On a 15 degree morning, when you look out and see nothing even close to resembling that for the next 2 weeks in January and February, you know something is wrong

Looks like we can officially move from AN to Torch for the first week of February Very sad. Coldest part of the winter and No cold air in sight

15F at 6am

The snow man and snow cover live to fight another day Despite the crappy winter, we have had several days with snow cover in early December and now. That is something my peeps just south have not had, and it makes the winter that much worse. 27F

what was the big storm in late 80s? Foot of snow or so. Thinking 1986 or 87 That was the biggest storm I first remember

Well he is just dealing with reality. Next 14 days are AN...then the climo starts back up. That’s when you start working against climo and sun angle with snow storms and snow cover

You are all saying the same thing in different ways This has potential though and if anything bares watching this year...it is this storm Especially if you live in Westchester or Rockland and certainly Putnam and Orange

Light snow shower 41F

Track aside, you really need a perfect storm with an airmass that wants to produce mid 40s at the coast. You essentially need a Feb 2018 type storm. Bookended by well AN temps

3 inches in Hastings on Hudson Exactly as advertised And for the record, all 3 snowfalls I have measured this year have been exactly what was advertised 24 and 48 hours out The models have been excellent this year at predicting snowfall totals

Just drove down from Westchester to Chinatown Like two different storms with a dividing line of Yonkers Not even close down here

Alright, if nothing else I got my fix

You have 6 good weeks. Next week looks torchy (storm possibility aside) Down to 5 weeks. If you notice it’s dark past 5 PM now, we have about two weeks left before the average temperature starts going back up. Anything can happen. But you clearly have a marginal pattern and you start running out the clock

Absolutely! AccuWeather was spot on this winter. they said mild and below normal snow And frankly we had posters on here that kept insisting it was a cold pattern After it became obvious this was just another transient shot There will be more transient shots between AN temps and hopefully That plays to our advantage with snow

Bad couple of winters Hopefully its only a small positive departure for Feb so the close in ski resorts keep it going. January was pretty brutal for them

Need cold air or a large enough storm to override what looks like a warm pattern next weekend

Hahaha It’s funny post blizzard photos in the Canadian Maritimes We have become their Atlanta!

23F Unbelievable that it hasnt been that cold in a while

If these models hold, it follows the pattern that the models have had all season week out storm looks ok->storm looks marginal for extended period->storm with marginal setup looks better 2-3 days out -> models finally give in to negative fundamentals and show a non event for NYC-> actual event is a non winter event Anyone else notice this thus far this season? It is almost as if we as a forum are looking at too closely at every run and dismissing the basic fundamentals of a marginal (or worse) set up in the name of hope

Dont bet on it from latest runs Big warm up late next week Fat Lady isnt singing yet, but she has entered the building and will start warming up soon

Thank you As I said above, several days AN...as of now

Wasnt that the cutter winter just like this one?

Next week looks to have several AN days

Please...lets give this a rest already Last week I was running shirtless (and sweating) And there was talk of a six-inch plus snowstorm this weekend when it was very obvious that we had another cutter Now, onto the 24th... When the good stuff is always 10 days away on models that arent reliable 10 days out...you are in trouble I will get flamed for this...and frankly I dont care...Good winters dont start like this. Yes, someone is going to post an analogue from the 1930s or 1940s and tell me I am wrong...but the vast majority of time in NYC, if you have a flaming bag of dog poop through 1/20, your winter is in that bag. At this point, hope for a 94-95 11 incher followed by some biting cold to get your fill. Anything else will be a bonus. (that also ended in rain that garbage winter)

Yeh but that Blob of Green up to Saginaw doesnt give me a warm fuzzy feeling for the back end