eduggs
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Everything posted by eduggs
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That was the first positive shift in a while on the GFS. H5 looked much better. Northern areas could stay frozen for a while with that kind of outcome with minimal rain and dryslot. Maybe even a little light snow to end. If that trof keeps digging and the vortmax sticks its bottom out like that towards the east over the Atlantic as the trof wraps up, we could easily redevelop a surface reflection south of LI and stave off the warm sector. My hunch says this shifts back west ultimately, but I hope I'm wrong. Maybe now that the trend was arrested, ensembles might be useful again. If 0z guidance shows a similar trend we can smile.
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This time it's not a kicker, but a Fujiwara phasing buddy.
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The GFS is a little faster so far this run. That's a start. Could be good to get a little more separation from the trailing wave and maybe dig a little further SE before going nuts.
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Surface maps will fool you. Ignore there the L is placed. The isobars and precipitation are further north. H5 is more telling. Might be a touch worse than last run - hard to tell.
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FWIW I see no obvious improvement on the 18z NAM. The funny thing is, if this had been advertised as a rainy cutter for several days, we'd be pretty excited about having a good shot at a solid initial thump. The expectations game is harsh.
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I think latitude with help a lot too. Guidance is also hinting at a shadowing effect due to strong easterlies. So places with elevation or east of terrain should do better than places west of terrain.
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The EC is going to be more pain. We've had like 8 cycles of pain after 2 cycles of hope. But now that we're starting to recalibrate our expectations downward, in a day or two we can get excited again about a significant winter storm and possible 3-6" snowfall.
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It definitely looks like heavy snow to rain to dryslot right now. I could even imagine this ending up with only a brief period of rain inland and quickly to dryslot. The total duration of precipitation could end up being less than 12 hours. Someone could get 6" from the initial snow thump even with the mid-level lows cutting well inland. And that would be excellent, especially if we have some more trackable events in the near term. If instead we go glop to rain to more cold and dry with only LR threats, it will be irritating.
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I think the evolution of this storm may be highlighting a weakness of the ensembles. If several runs in a row an operational model is a far western outlier with respect to its members and then it continues to shift further west away from them, how useful are they at that stage? We've seen this clearly with the GFS/GEFS and to a similar but lesser extent with EPS and GEPS. Until the multi-run shift is halted and some kind of continuity is established, I think it could be misleading to look at the ensemble mean.
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I think the issue is the upstream wave, not the downstream trof. Right now the GFS is strengthening and deepening this trof just at the perfect moment to Fujiwara the bowling ball almost due north. I'd love to see the follow up wave significantly delayed, with a height field less conducive to phasing, or in a different location.
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What a perfect phase on the GFS between the bowling ball trof and the follow up wave. The ridging in between wave 1 and 3 just perfectly aligns, and wave 3 amplifies just ideally to wrap up the bowling ball into its waiting arms. Beautiful! But where was this so many times when we needed it with storms exiting east off the SE coast?
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Same deal as last run on the 0z Euro. Thump to mix to rain. Heavy snow well inland. Well more like thump to drizzle and dryslot. Don't like the sudden pseudo-consistency.
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Our area is crushed on that. But it was a notable shift west from 12z. I suspect the Euro will be west of this.
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Agreed. Maybe we windshield wiper back the other way. We were only briefly in the sweet spot. I loved the look when this was a VA-NC snowstorm. Not optimistic at all.
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The trof axis and mid-level lows move further west every run. No bueno. Everybody still seems to love looking at the surface maps.
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I don't really think so. When the OP run makes this kind of adjustment across several model runs moving against the ensemble mean, then you disregard the ensembles. They are far more useful when some semblance of run to run and inter-model consistency has been established.
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Gotta disregard ensembles when the OP run leads a trend across several consecutive runs like this.
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I want mature, wrapped up mid-level lows with a bombing surface low. I don't want to suppress that. I just want the trof to go neutral further east. The past few runs it's just setting up too far west. The vortmax doesn't need to swing west all the way out to CO. It might as well take a more direct route through IA, MS, AL and all the way down to northern FL. It can go to town from there. A severely negatively tilted cutoff in western VA is going to be a problem for us.
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Most of us would take that in a heartbeat. That's a State College, Binghamton, Albany, Worcester jack. Doesn't matter this far out, but I felt more comfortable with it missing east last run.
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That's an impressive H5 progression on the GFS. Suddenly there looks to be nothing to stop this from blasting precip. back to Toronto, Ottawa, and even deeper into the Quebec interior. SLP in ALB is not a great track for us. And this could probably go to Syracuse. I take little comfort from the ensembles. Hopefully 0z at least stops the bleeding and we can start clawing back some ground.
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IMO the bottom right box should be checked for all. They seem to be weighing likelihood for both axes. I'm not sure they are utilizing those risk matrices correctly. Confidence has not increased a lot since yesterday. But potential impact seems clearly high.
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What a monster. But too tucked. Suddenly we need the main shortwave (#2 of 3) to dive further southeast initially. It's starts going negative when the trof axis is too far west.
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That's a big inland snowstorm on the Euro. Mix to rain west of I-95.
