ldub23

27 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

Here are the 12Z EPS snowfall outputs. Definitely a handful of big hits. E-11, 14, and 32 were the snowiest members for the January 16th-17th period, especially for Richmond. Sharing the individual member snow maps for your enjoyment! Lets hope the EPS improves and the GFS/GEFS get on board in the coming days. 

 

 

 

For our entire region, including all of SE VA and NE NC, E-22 and E-47 were the snowiest from what seems to be another threat around the 20th-21st. 

 

 

Getting  better

More  cold  overall

This seems so much like  last seasons snowless winter. A  2-3 day cold spell followed  by warm. 

Im out till the NWS has snow  in its  7 day forecast. Might  till 2025 lol

Nothing and now the  consensus  is at the end  of the run it warms  up so now  we  have to wait till feb  for the  pattern change while the seasonal warmup begins

Never  good when in January threads are  being started about  rain

47 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

12z EPS still has a signal in the LR after next weekend's cutter and once the PV lobe drops south and moves eastward. This would provide the cold and push the storm track farther south. Also, the EPS mean has ticked back up and some with quite a few hits on the ensembles, which is different from many previous runs. 

 

 

The se ridge wont go away

1 hour ago, RIC Airport said:

18Z GFS was encouraging, @Conway7305, @wasnow215, @ldub23, @Stormpc, @mikeeng92, @Rhino16. The PV lobe drops into the CONUS and delivers cold and forces the storm track south, just hopefully it's not too far south. But, we have some wiggle room. 

 

30 mile  NW trend  please

Amazing  cold dump in the west with no way for  it  to come east. We will end  with a ridge and warm rain.  12Z is far worse than even the 6z  which was  bad enough. This  is  1977 in reverse. hot  in the east brutal cold  in the west.

Latest gfs ends with an SER and once again the cold can never get here. low after low cutting to the west.

2 hours ago, RIC Airport said:

I found these, too for your area. When I have time at some point, I'll look for more. 

I was a kid and remember  it well. Friday afternoon they were  predicting  snow flurries for  sat, then sat morning they were saying  1-2 inches. At the height  of the storm it was  16 degrees with 40+wind gusts and  heavy snow. It snowed all day sunday and the temp warmed to 27. They said  13 inches  but  it  had to be at  least  20. Right after we had a  big warm up and  it was  gone  in a few days except  there were still small snow  piles  on apr 02 in parking  lots.

Im using Norfolk obs. Here  is the  wildest 10 days of weather ever  here. On the  15th of  feb it  got to 80 degrees. On the  18th we  had  13.6 of  snow. On the  21st  it  got to 76 degrees. On the  24th we  had 8.6 inches  of snow. Nothing  like  it since.

29 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

To cheer everyone up, today marks the sixth anniversary of the blizzard that struck E NC and VA, which was the second blizzard to hit Hampton Roads in less than a year. The storm, which was verified as a blizzard at ORF recorded 10.3” of snow. However, due to the storm's track, Richmond only recorded 3.0”. This event was the eleventh biggest snowstorm on record at ORF since snowfall records began in 1891.

This period featured one of the coldest stretches we have experienced since the winter of 1995-96. On January 7, 2018, the temperature in RIC dropped to -3°F, the first time it had dropped below 0°F since the year 2000. Richmond remained below freezing for four consecutive days, but it would have been eight days in a row had it not been for hitting 34°F one day in the middle. It is worth noting that the most consecutive days below freezing at RIC was twelve days back in the winter of 1935-36.

 

Here are some images I saved. 

 

 

 

Additionally, yesterday marked the anniversary of the January 3, 2002, snowstorm that affected our area. Richmond and Norfolk both experienced a decent snowstorm with 7.7 inches and 7.2 inches of snowfall, respectively. It is noteworthy that this storm occurred during an otherwise mild winter season throughout the east. 

 

Thanks, if  only that  would  happen again

better than nothing

This  is a good  look. Its dry  but  cold. Cant have winter storms without this.

35 minutes ago, Conway7305 said:

Hopefully by Jan 20ish we start seeing a positive cycle.  Here is the PNA forecast graph 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hopefully it  changes  on the  20th but  on the GFS the  cold  just  can never get  here. At  least  we  cant  have a  january thaw this  year. To have a thaw you  have to be frozen first.

1 hour ago, RIC Airport said:

Below are two maps from the GEFS and EPS.

I like the -NAO consistency. The last time we saw that was years ago. The -NAO is probably preventing us from torching like we did much of last winter. When you flip through the run, you can tell that pesky SE Ridge is just lurking down below Cuba. We also have an active southern stream, another component absent in recent winters.

We need to get rid of the troughing tendency in the West and a better mechanism to deliver cold in the east. Storms tend to cut to the Midwest and Ohio Valley with that orientation. Or indeed, farther north and west than is ideal for I-95. The end of the EPS was better than the GEFS, but certainly no amplified western ridge. We can still get a sneaky event with the right timing and placement of other features, but it complicates things.

There is still plenty of time left, and remember, March IS a snow month, too. 

GEFS 

 

EPS

 

It also doesn't help that the CONUS has not had much snow this winter, which doesn't help build and sustain cold like we've seen in Russia. 

 

Thats all nice  but  here we are jan 18 and  its seasonally cool with no sign of arctic air taking  over for  weeks at a time. At some  point its going to have to turn cold and stay cold. The euro 360 map doesnt  match up with this. And  between now and then we will have  2  storms cutting well west  of the  mountains and we will be talking about severe weather  instead  of  cold

Cutter  num 2

The  perfect  pattern will show  up in late March and last thru October.

1 hour ago, Rhino16 said:

This is over for us. I just don’t see that big of a change in modeling this close to it. Was thinking this yesterday.

The  problem with this storm was  no cold air. Seasonal isnt good enough here. Here  is  1 day after the storm and  there  is zero cold air  behind it. I  know the  models show  cold air  coming but  it  never seems to get here.

1 hour ago, wasnow215 said:

Models trending warmer and warmer. 

Yea, just  no cold air anywhere.

Even with this  low it  never really  gets  cold after  it  leaves. I think SEVA is  out  of the  game  this winter. Hopefully a storm will have the  R/S line east  of  RIC in JAN/FEB.

2 days  later  on jan 10 and  its  in the  60's. Just  no cold air

JB  posted this about the brutal january pattern. Reminds  me  of the time texas got  brutal cold and  it  never  came east.

Hopefully  it will trend  better for  central va,

High to the  north  is gone  on the  ICON. All rain. 

Could  be big  for  central va. high 10 mb stronger to the  north and  low  more east

Looking good

Looks  like  i will be  on the  line  on the ICON

R/S  line right  over  my house  lol. Based  on the ICON i might  get  7 or  0

54 minutes ago, tigersaint11 said:

Lot's of great info to unpack from RIC Airport. Thanks for the insight.....I can't help but think all of these s/w's that have been pummeling Central/Eastern VA will eventually run into some cold air. Maybe? Probably?

in 2025 lol. I do hope RVA gets  lucky  on the  7th. 

At  least the  ICON is close to somethng

The  panic would  be  less  if someone could shut the  nozzle  on the  pacific  firehose.