ldub23

10 hours ago, RIC Airport said:

The end of the 18Z GEFS indicates an earlier change. Let's hope there is an earlier shift. Also, one ensemble member obliterated NC and SE VA from the 4th to the 5th of February with 14" of snow falling at Norfolk and 18" at Elizabeth City. Only one member, but it could be a sign we could be back in the game sooner than we think. 

I wish that was right. On the  other  hand these are the  temps at  384hrs at  midnight i think. Very warm. Feb 07 is when normals start rising. 

The  low that did  have a  little  promise as some  snow  is  now  just way too warm

2 hours ago, RIC Airport said:

Unless somehow that shortwave around the 28th-1st turns into something (which is a long shot for us this far south), it's still looking like ~2/10 and later for any significant chance of snow opportunities. 

Below are the H5 maps from today's 12Z GEFS (hour 384) and EPS (hour 360). After the storm around the 28th-1st moves away, a couple days of cold follow it before there is ridging building back into the east, and we moderate. 

 

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Today's Euro weeklies show the change around the 10th. Here is the look on 10 FEB as the trough is beginning to move back toward the east coast with increasing heights in the EPO, AO, NAO domains. The only teleconnection that doesn't look great continues to be the PNA (lack of a west ridge), but the euro weeklies do show it neutral to slightly positive.

FEB 10th

FEB 15th

FEB 20th

FEB 25th

MAR 1st

MAR 6th

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After the 10th is when the snowfall mean begins to increase, with the period from about the 15th to March 1st being the highest. 

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The snow below snow charts take longer to update, but these are from the run two days ago, and you can see snow hits begin to increase in earnest after about the 10/12th at Richmond and Norfolk.

We can still hope

06 GFS not as  bleak as earlier runs

5 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

Yeah, seems to have waned some, too. But we won't escape the cold. Below are the Euro temps for 3pm tomorrow. Almost all stations are below freezing. 

 

But, if the Euro is correct, we are torching a week later with widespread 70s next Saturday at 1pm. This pattern change will be brutal, hopefully, we don't verify that warm and we get back to cold and snow. We get 70°F+ most of the year. 

With Alaska so brutally  cold then we will have to have summer  in Feb. Im going to make a really  bold  prediction. Late  march thu most  of  may will be well below  normal with alot  of rain and the  low tracks will be  perfect for  snowstorms  if  it were jan/feb. 

Future radar  shows  no snow flurry  here today

https://www.13newsnow.com/radar

Looks like  its  moving  more east than se. 

More rain here. Maybe a flurry  later but Alaska  has  gone  into the freezer so a  big  warm-up is  coming  here.

This  is fairbanks and they are way below  normal. We  need a  real pattern change  if anything is going to happen in Feb

06 gfs doesnt even have a snow flurry  for se va on friday. Hopefully by feb 28 2025 we will have an accumulating snow

12Z nada

18Z euro was a  bit  interesting for  friday

1 hour ago, RIC Airport said:

Frozen precip chances look better on the 00z GFS for areas east and SE of RIC. The challenge for Hampton Roads will be surface temperatures and fighting warm air aloft at 850MB. Both eventually fall as the afternoon progresses, but I wonder whether anything will be meaningful there. 

The GFS has RIC rising to 33°F by 1am (it's 31°F at 11pm), rising to 35 by 6am, and remaining above freezing until 2pm. So unlike the 00Z HRRR and 3K NAM I showed, it keeps any frozen precip confined to areas north of RIC until about 1pm when both surface and 850mb temps fall below freezing. 850s cool to 0°F at Norfolk by 4pm, but surface temperatures throughout Hampton Roads are still in the mid-upper 30s. Norfolk does not even drop to freezing on the GFS until 9pm. The model does try to accumulate snow between Richmond and Williamsburg and up to the Northern Neck.

This is just one model depiction, as we know things can and probably will change. 

I  have  given up on accumulating  snow till next winter. Just hoping for a flurry  now.

GFS is  more aggressive with the changeover than 18z

Nothing  here  of  course, but  still ok in RIC

1 hour ago, RIC Airport said:

@Conway7305, @ldub23Friday's storm was basically a snowstorm for 40N, although it does have a portion of C VA, starting off as snow between about 4am to 10am Friday morning before changing to rain. We are on the southern fringe of the entire thing. Still something to monitor in the coming days, I guess. Would be wonderful to get TWO accumulating events within a week. 

I will wait and see what the  18z gfs shows  if anything. One thing  is  certain, there  is going to be a warm up after the  snowless  cold  in se va. Im glad  it  looks  like RIC will get at  least  several inches. I was really  hoping for  1 last  cold snowy winter in Newport  News as  i have  no idea the time  i have  left, lol

A the end  of the  gfs the  cold  comes  back but  will it  matter  if  it  does?

Still holding  out  hope for a  miracle on 06 GFS

11 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

The short-term models are getting further within range, and so far, the 3K NAM is developing and pushing that initial band farther north of Richmond while everyone S and E see little, if anything.

 

Meanwhile, the HRRR was a little farther south. Both of these are at the end of their ranges, so I don't know if I'd take them too seriously for now, but something to watch in later runs. 

 

 

The trend  is still good enough in the HRRR

This reminds  me of a situation back around  1971 but  my memory fails a  bit. Then we  had an arctic  boundary that stalled  to the SE and for a week we  had cold with occasional snow showers but  little  accumulation. Then an upper  low  came  over and dumps  2.5 inches just after school started. Lots  of similarities to the  upcoming week.

I  like this  look. There  is  plenty  of Actual cold air around this time. 

06 GFS better with several snow chances

102

162

This at  204

ITS been a few years since we  had a  cold winter  pattern and there  is still no sign we will have  one this winter. 2 or  3 days  of  cold  isnt a  pattern change and th warm is  coming  back

06GFS still looks good  for  RIC

In se va we will get the worst weather  possible. Bitter cold and  nothing to show for  it. Good Ric will get snow.

RIC may end  up with a foot+ thru 16 days

Looks  like central va will get a good snow.

More snow!!

Hopefully  the trend will be good today

18 GFS has several opportunities for  inland areas and ends  like this

After a few days  of  cold and dry  its right  back to rain and warm. We get far  more tornado watches  in Jan/feb than winter advisories  now, lol

Soon it will be February. Hard to believe we will have 1000+days without  an inch of snow.