ldub23

On 9/25/2023 at 1:50 PM, WEATHER53 said:

Temps: -1

Snowfall:14-18” for DCA, IAD, BWI

Have two months at a 75% probability of being -2 and one month with a 66% probability of being +1.  Will follow Nino pattern and go with Jan and Feb as -2

Primary analog years:1953-54 and 1985-86

Secondary analog years with first two having more weight: 1986-87 and 2010-11.  Also 1954-55, 1980-81, 1983-84, 1991-92, 2019-20.

Couple  of lousy years, some solid cold ones, major storms not showing up.  Might battle suppression this year.  At least way better than last few. 

 

Im thinking a  little  bit  higher, 18-22 inches

17 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

We  have  had a  pattern of  lows forming  off the SE coast  and  moving  offshore. If this  pattern repeats  in dec-feb it will be quite snowy especially  I-95east

 

 

 

Its  been very  persistent

We  have  had a  pattern of  lows forming  off the SE coast  and  moving  offshore. If this  pattern repeats  in dec-feb it will be quite snowy especially  I-95east

26 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

4 degrees CELSIUS colder than climo over a 3 month average imby?

No way that's gonna happen. (and I'm one of those who is cautiously optimistic about 23-24)

It was  lower that that  in 76/77 and 77/78

8 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I don’t think the Niño will stick around enough to disrupt next year. I don’t like going super long range, but next year looks…not good…

It’s just one of those exceptionally active periods in the basin. It took a third year Nina to slow down last year and that was a low grade speed bump. 

JB has said next season will double this  years  numbers with an ace well over  200

30 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

12z GFS op missing the Leewards, however, there was a notable swing in the CONUS setup in 240-260 range vs previous runs. ULL over Florida and with increased heights over New England. The hurricane would potentially get driven near the Mid-Atlantic region. Might get interesting on this run... But, of course, this is late in the medium range. Main takeaway here is the WAR rebuilds into CONUS where previous runs it does not. See if this turns into a trend with this evening's runs.

It does take a  NW turn

Euro further west with Idalia part 2

The  center  of frank appears to be about to zip out  of the  convection.

1 hour ago, lee59 said:

Franklin is the only one that looks worthy enough to have a name.

Gert and emily  should  never  have been named. Just  getting  numbers  up. Euro has  come way down on Frankie. I dont  know about  1893 but  comparing this garbage to 1995 is  beyond a  joke

41 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah, it looks like it's close if not already a TC. We'll see what recon finds later. 

JB  is  not giving  up. He doesnt mention hazel but  it formed  in the same  place

1 hour ago, tiger_deF said:

Figured I'd make a thread for this disturbance. 90L has come on the scene rather quickly - As a disturbance from the western edge of the monsoon trough, models only started picking up on potential development of this system a few days ago. 90L has appeared to be steadily organizing over the past day, with popcorning CBs and early indications of banding patterns. Model-wise, a powerful trough is expected to pick up the developing system through Hispaniola and potentially posing a threat to Bermuda down the line. However, as indicated by the GEFS spaghetti plot, there are lots of options still on the table, and a great deal of uncertainty as to the future track.

Keep us  updated. Good work.

50 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Lots of fish activity

But  less  fishy than 06Z

JB has spoken. This  will be the  upcoming winter.

T

13 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 

The GFS came alive

16 minutes ago, GaWx said:

GFS 12 runs out of 63 since 7/31 with hurricane (7 of them over last 11 runs)(last 9 H within 8/25-30):

-7/31 12Z: hit SC 8/16
-8/3 6Z: GOM hit MX/TX border 8/16
-8/6 0Z: MDR 8/18-21
-8/9 18Z: just off SC 8/25
-8/11 0Z: GOM just off LA 8/26
-8/13 0Z: GOM 8/26-8
-8/13 6Z: GOM 8/25-6 that hits MS 8/26-7. 
-8/13 18Z: GOM 8/25 hits S TX 8/26
-8/14 0Z : off SC/NC 8/26-29
-8/14 6Z: off NC 8/28-30
-8/14 12Z: GOM 8/27 hits LA 8/28
-8/15 6Z: GOM 8/26 hits FL Panhandle 8/27

All i see  is a weak broad  low  in the west  GOM. No hurricane anywhere thru aug 31.

12 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

As long as you have all that saharan dust out there, I don't care what any model shows

GFS has a  cane  in the GOM but  it  seems highly  unlikely that  will happen. At  216 is where it  begins  but what actually  will happen is it develops  in the east  pac. The  pattern hasnt  changed  1 iota because there  is  nothing  behind  it  developing. 0/0 Aug thru aug  30 on the GFS now except  for  an unlikely  GOM cane. I think the GFS is  confusing the Colombian heat  low that  is  hostile for  development  for an actual disturbance. Another argument against development  is that huge front  blasting  off the east  coast. As  i often say if you want to see west carib/gom development you want a  locked  and  loaded high dominating the west ATL. Since  its  peak and something should  be  happening  i give  it  a  1% chance. Only a  99% chance  it  doesnt develop

Just now, ldub23 said:

First  hint the GFS might  be starting the season

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

For the first time it  shows  something  developing  behind the cane  hitting TX which could  indicate a  pattern change

 

But then it shows a  second  low  forming  in the west  gom

read  fast

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 On the 12Z EPS through 240, I counted 15 Hs (30% of members) at a minimum from just the wave now in the E MDR. There's something like 30 members from all of the waves, combined, with a H. There still are four different possibilities to watch during the next ten days.

First  hint the GFS might  be starting the season

For the first time it  shows  something  developing  behind the cane  hitting TX which could  indicate a  pattern change

But then it shows a  second  low  forming  in the west  gom

8 hours ago, GaWx said:

The 0Z GFS has a H in the GOM 8/26-8 moving slowly W. That makes 6 GFS runs out of 53 (11%) since 7/31 with a H on the run:

-7/31 12Z: hit SC 8/16
-8/3 6Z: hit MX/TX border 8/16
-8/6 0Z: MDR 8/18-21
-8/9 18Z: just off SC 8/25
-8/11 0Z: just off LA 8/26
-8/13 0Z: GOM 8/26-8

 The last three on this list are all from the AEW now in the E Atlantic, the same one the EPS has been harping on since August 4th.

You didnt  mention it was  on its way to cat5. Im skeptical though because there  is  nothing  behind  it which says the  pattern hasnt  changed.

It will be really hard to get a hurricane  in the GOM anytime soon with the East  pac  on fire  like this. 

The Man says  it again. This will be a Sept to remember. 1954? 85?

https://www.cfact.org/2023/08/11/hurricane-update/

• "This hurricane season, a September to remember is on the table.
• The expected impacts on the U.S. Coast have increased compared to the last forecast.
• Keep in mind that this is, in essence, a “normal” season.
  • 1985 and 1954 were “normal” seasons but had a high impact, and this may be like that."

And  just wait till next season. Double the  numbers, triple the fun

Note that next year may be a doozy of a season. I believe this is a bounce-back El Niño in response to the longest and strongest MEI El Niño on record, so we should collapse it and go back to a La Niña base state. SSTs will remain warm, and so that may be a season number-wise (at least for totals) two times higher than this year.

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

1. Indeed, the 0Z GFS has a H south of LA on 8/26. That makes 5 GFS runs out of 45 (1 in 9) since 7/31 with a H on the run:

-7/31 12Z: hit SC 8/16
-8/3 6Z: hit MX/TX border 8/16
-8/6 0Z: MDR 8/18-21
-8/9 18Z: just off SC 8/25
-8/11 0Z: just off LA 8/26

 

2. At 240, the 0Z EPS is once again quite active with that lead wave.

 

 

06 gfs has  nothing except  a weak low thats going to recurve. Im amazed NOAA was so high and  no one  is reducing  numbers  by alot.

37 minutes ago, GaWx said:

The new 0Z Euro has the active EPS system as a strengthening 1005 mb low just S of PR moving WNW at 240 and has very little for the followup wave that recurved on the 12Z.

GFS has this but  im doubtful because  if things are  more favorable then there would  be something  behind  it and there  isnt

and  JB is saying  it again

This is the euro you  mentioned. 5 more days  and  it  might  be where the gfs  has the  cane