ldub23

There  is an easy way to solve the  no snow and  cold  panic and ensure we get snow  and  cold. Instead  of  calling the  period  of  dec-feb winter, call  it  hurricane season. That way we will fool the weather and  it  will place a deep trof  along the east  coast  thinking  it really  is  hurricane season. Problem solved. We all know whats going to happen. Eventually we will get a  perfect  pattern for  winter, during spring and summer.

No need for  panic at all

I still think we will get >1 this winter  just  by accident

At Norfolk so far  this December  is  5 degrees warmer than last  december. Dec 2022 was  -2.1 and so far this december we are  +3.0. I didnt think it could  possibly warmer this winter than last. I was wrong, lol

1 minute ago, WEATHER53 said:

OMG  now it’s the 12th 

The  12th is  practically  half the winter gone and the  pattern was supposed to changed already

2 hours ago, RIC Airport said:

Nice! Too bad we only got 0.2" of snow out of it. 

Yup, getting tired of talking about this "pattern change" from a theoretical perspective, impatiently waiting to see things fall in place. But there is still plenty of time left.  All we need is 3 weeks of an excellent pattern to score, and even if it takes another 3-4 weeks to get there, we are still in the heart of winter. Looking at you February 2015 and others. 

@ldub23, GFS did have a SE VA snowstorm last night at 00Z in case you missed it. Fantasy land, of course. And of course, 12Z has a Midwest cutter at the end. The model flip flipping continues. 

 

I saw  it  but the  cold  never actually  comes. No arctic air anywhere  in the  country ans the winter  is  1/3 over.

Lets get some snow talk started. Its  has snowed  in winter  before and  IT WILL again.

The  pattern HAS changed  but someone forgot to tell that to the  cold air.

23 hours ago, RIC Airport said:

Yeah because if RIC doesn't record at least an inch of snow by January 12th, it'll be a new record. The current longest stretch of days with less than 1 inch occurred from 2/26/1991 to 2/20/1993. 

 

I will bet the record will be broken

22 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Yea we’re in the warm sector of a cold front there… at that stage It has entered the plains. It would eventually come East, as I mentioned we’d warm up for a few days ahead of any arctic blast. That’s if GFS is even close to being right who knows…


.

This will be a true arctic  outbreak, Hitting the center  of the country then coming  east  is  ideal.

We  have a  problem when its Christmas and we are talking about storms  of the  past. Outside  of some snow  in the  western mountains there  hasnt  been a single winter storm of  note. A few summer type storms for the east.

2 hours ago, RIC Airport said:

The 12Z GFS has the storm threat as well. Posting for situational awareness, obviously things will change since it's the end of the run. But, I love how things look leading up to it. Upper air pattern supports something and we get decently cold heading into the New Year's weekend. 

Better than 75 and sunny

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

what? because the snowfall mean doesn't look great? the pattern progression is moving along as expected

I agree but  i think some  of  us want to see the snow and  cold progressing along as well. Hopefully  it will

Nice to see that  -20 in North Dakota

7 hours ago, RIC Airport said:

The extended EPS, which runs daily at 00Z, goes out 45 days and seems to like mid to late January, @ldub23. There is a 6" snowfall mean for Richmond and a 3" mean for Norfolk. And if you're seeing what I'm seeing, there is one member that has over 28" of snow at RIC.   But, I'm also seeing 3 members that are complete shut outs. . That said, this is the highest I've seen the mean since I started monitoring this since early November.

 

Not all that  impressive though i actually  my first snowflakes  in 2 years  late  last  night

2 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

12Z has the storm at the end of the run as well. But, it only likes the western part of the state, although perhaps areas eastern areas get some backside action? 

At  least  its showing cold and storms  unlike  last  year

GFS has a couple chances of snow

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Based off the 18z gfs op? 12z it was in the upper 40s low 50s same time. 

Im looking for  any sign the  cold  is  coming and  im hoping the  new  year starts  out  cold,

New  years  looks  like  it  might  be  cold

Im still looking  for the  cold air

13 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

Ensemble Member 12 looks interesting, but unlikely to happen unfortunately. 

 

Better than last winters wall to wall heat. Even when the  3 day cold came there was  no chance  of snow.

1 hour ago, RIC Airport said:

Euro forms a second low on the heels of the big coastal. It throws moisture westward where it might be cold enough in parts of the Piedmont for snow Tuesday morning, @Rhino16, @snowchill, @JB Fins, @ldub23.

I think this was what the Icon was trying to do.

 

 

Euro very  close to the  ICON

Icon says  let  it snow and snow and snow