ldub23

Another  lt snow  event  possible?

51 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

Yeah, looks like GFS went back west at 00z and the 06z run followed suit, @ldub23. Yay!.... I guess, if you want a winter time coastal that gives us rain and not snow. 

Also, GFS is still trying to push us into the 60s just in time for Christmas and the day after ahead of a storm that tracks through the Ohio Valley.

No cold anywhere

7 hours ago, RIC Airport said:

12Z Euro and 18Z GFS takes the next storm out to sea. If true, we'll have a chance to dry out.

Cat2 hurricane strength

Late Dec and this  model is showing rain in North Dakota  to the  cold  NW side  of a  low. 1/3rd of winter  is gone  at this  point.

Not a flake  here  but  glad yall got  some

JB says it will be warm and stormy now but it can still snow

Pattern change still coming

JB cant be wrong again. 

25 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Yeah, the whole board, not just this subforum, has punted the entire thing. 

It's December 10th, with a rain-to-snow scenario on our doorsteps from NC to Maine, and everyone seems to be capitulating.

Imstill hoping the  punt gets blocked and another  hot  winter  is defeated  but  im getting a  bad  vibe when once again its Dec and  instead  of talking about the  latest snowstorm threat, like  last winter we are talking about severe weather.

Santa wants to know when the  pattern is  changing

Hopefully this  is the  pattern change

Hopefully RIC gets accumulating snow

3 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

I am hesitant to use ignore in general.  For one thing I am always concerned about setting myself up in an echo chamber, only hearing things I want to hear (like a conservative who only watched Fox News or a liberal who only watches MSNBC).  Maybe I should make an exception for those who post 384 hour ops with the intent of causing distress.

I  post  plenty  of  maps that show snow and  cold as well and when fairbanks starts a sustained warm  up i will be the first to post  it.

1 hour ago, Prestige Worldwide said:

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1733192840472379769?s=61&t=jtYSAZghIHxEA6K1a8OFsw
 

someone seems happy 

Twas the  night  before Christmas and all thru the  house, no arctic air was stirring, not even a wisp. (best  i could do) Im still looking at when fairbanks warms  up. Hopefully  it wont  be  in march. 

And  yes, when Fairbanks starts talking about well above  normal temps then the  cold will be  coming

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
The extended is looking interesting. Starting with the general
pattern, troughing over the state will leave an arctic front
draped over the Interior, the exact placement is still being
determined but this will play an important role. The storm track
will be from the Pacific, south of the Aleutians to near Prince
William sound. This will allow for several snow chances in the
Interior. The placement of the arctic front will be determined by
a couple of factors, a low over the Arctic providing northerly
flow and the remnant low over the YK Delta providing persistent
lows into the Northern Gulf of Alaska. Also, with these storms
coming up, they will run into a high sitting over Eastern Russia,
resulting in a tightening gradient and prolonging the northerly
winds in the Bering Strait and St. Lawrence Island next week with
heavy snow still remaining possible. Winds may pick up
significantly over the Bering Sea with this set up and we are
monitoring closely for the potential for impactful weather.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

On 12/2/2023 at 1:23 PM, RIC Airport said:

This weekend marks the anniversary of the 12/3-4/2000 storm, which was a major disappointment for most of our area. I guess unless you live in Franklin, Ahoskie, Currituck areas.  Many areas in NE NC received 10-15" of snow.

But, the storm was supposed to affect most of east central and SE VA. In fact, NWS Wakefield (as you can see below) even issued a winter storm watch as far N and W as the Richmond metro area. Unfortunately, in the final 24hours the models shifted the storm farther south. It could've been better region-wide, one of my worst memories being in Richmond at the time. 

I remember that well with my snow flurries while 25 miles SW It was  10-12 inches

Last  paragraph  from Fairbanks discussion

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
It looks to be much colder than we`ve seen lately and the coldest
of the season so far for many locations, especially the West Coast
and Western Interior Sunday night into Monday. The pattern looks
to consist of troughing over the state which would bring more in
the way of Arctic air to the West Coast and Western Interior with
some moderating and chances for Interior snow by midweek. Details
are still being ironed out and we will continue to monitor the
evolving pattern as it is volatile.

Its a  bit  below  normal now. As  long as they stay cold its going to be really  hard for  it to get  cold  here.

The signs  of  a  pattern change might  be there but the  cold  air  isnt

about the  coldest time  of day and nothing remarkable anywhere  in the  US

I would  like to see Fairbanks warm up before  i get too excited about  cold  here.

GFS went from winter storm to summer  heat.

1 hour ago, pazzo83 said:

lmao does this moron know how hard it is to get NYC to 0?  it's happened ONCE since 1994 and that (in 2016) was a fluke cold spell.

JAN 1994 was chilly  in NYC with 3 lows  of  zero or  colder

Maybe this  is the  beginning  of the  pattern change. We are  not at the  beginning  of the end  but the end  of the  beginning

First time the  cold  has  dug  in with a storm

39 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Maybe some members trying to kill the MJO prematurely in phase 6 or 7 vs continuing into 7-8-1? Dunno, just guessing/grasping at straws. Strat PV orientation doesn’t seem to jive with cold air in western North America, so not sure what would produce that. 

JB says its coming

18Z also has this

AND it snows and snows and snows

This  pattern will never work. 1 or 2 days  of  cool followed  by rapid warm-ups. Nice for lake effect as  it  never gets so cold the  lakes totally freeze  up.

The problem is the  cold is always a glancing  blow. It needs to dive  into the center  of the  country and spread east.

Hopefully  it gets better