ldub23

1 hour ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said:

Tales from mumbai

it will explode soon just you wait 

Perhaps. Euro shows very  little  out to 4 weeks but  it does show the  shift  to a winterlike  pattern. CSU and others forecasts  of  a  big  US  landfall season seem unlikely.

46 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

I hate to pull an ldub here but I'm itching to see something else on the long range models. Strange that all models now reach to the end of August and there's still nothing on the horizon after Ernesto. This season is definitely impressive with assuming Ernesto makes MH, we'd be at 5/3/2 by mid August, but I'm still not seeing the upper 20's named storms as many predicted. 

We are  in peak season during a season that was supposed to be  super duper and the  hurricane season from Hell and the  models cant even come  up with a fantasy  cane. Has to be too much dry air. I doubt the season will be rip roaring  in Oct. 

10 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Surprising seeing consensus to miss Puerto Rico, given current position and trajectory.

 

Next 6 hours will be interesting, not just for Puerto Rico, but a direct hit; however unlikely, would have important implications to intensity and therefore track...

I think it  can still hit  New England. Just will need a few adjustments. Also the first  of  many east  coast threats.

1 hour ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said:

rate the new cone

8.479 out  of  10

GFS says rare NE hit

On 8/7/2024 at 9:03 AM, TheDreamTraveler said:

It wouldn't be hurricane season without him cancelling the season before it even really starts.

GFS shows  1 storm then nothing else thru AUG25. Thats  2 in AUG.

• Late August: Favorable conditions will shift eastward, maintaining high activity across the Atlantic.

Maintain high activity? I would  be  happy if the ATL  could  maintain any activity. 2 things stand  out  here for  me. Its a  perfect set  up for a  continued  conveyor  belt  of  dust  into the ATL. Also, we  have  now  shifted  back to the  pattern of the  last  3 years with a trof  in the  central ATL and low  pressure anchored  in the NW Atlantic. While CSU says we  have  above  normal odds  of  canes and  majors  hitting the  US the rest  of the season this  pattern says the NW Carib isnt  going to be favorable, the  coast  is  protected, and  landfalls  will be  sparse unless  the  pattern reverses.

For  some reason you  have to click twice  on the  itty  bitty picture

If the  GFS is right and there  is  nothing to AUG22, which means  it will be at  least another week for a storm to develop CSU must really really think sept*Oct will be super  charged. Coming  down to 14/7/3 would  make  more sense. 10/5/2 the rest  of the way

3 minutes ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said:

Do you really think this season would be like 2022/2013 jfl

2004/05/1933 its  not  going to be.

26 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

I think the 12Z GFS is wrong, but check out about hour 180 or 204.

 

I saw  but  it seems  unlikely. 25 named storms? Lets say Aug  has  2. We  need  10 in sept and  10 in OCT. Aug  has to be  busy to get  to 25 and  nothing  now says  busy. Eric Webb says the MJO is Favorable  now and wont  be  in Sept. The season so far  is  2 tropical storms hitting the US with the  only reason they got to a  cat1 was interaction with land. We all saw  how  all the forecasters were saying how  super favorable the tropics were this season. Im not  seeing  it. Once again the  Mdr  is  choked with dust, dry as a desert, with sinking air  added  in. Beryl was a  butterfly effect thing where somehow  it  managed to do the  impossible but  that  isnt  going to keep on happening.

We arent  even getting a sniff of anything developing  in the subtropics this season. I  have  no idea what  has to happen to get moisture  into the Atlantic again but  el nino, la  nina, anything  inbetween and we end  up with a dead MDR.

Debby struggled all the way across just to have  convection. Still looks  very  dry and  loaded with sinking air.

Jinxed. GFS is hilarious. Stalls then flies west like a  bat  out  of  Hell. All the way to Alabama  now at  144. SE VA north the same daily  rain we  have  been getting  for  2 months

6 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Trough misses it.  Interesting solution in that the front that comes down with the trough to us on Wednesday just kind of hangs out, with an onshore flow for the rest of the week.  Certainly would help with temps.

clouds rain and an east wind  is far better than 98 and sun. Future Debby is a threat here  in SE VA

4 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z EPS thru Day 6

Seems like the faster solutions have a trough taking it out to sea.  If it misses the first trough then things could get interesting further North later next week.

12 Euro is quite a  bit different

16 minutes ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said:

Is that WXman57

Yes. He  isnt  one for  hype and  is rather  level headed so it  may mean more  coming from him. 57 is focusing  on the right area while the dunce  on TWC was focused on a tiny area  on visible that  if  it did develop was  just going to go into the south carib and  be shredded

3 minutes ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said:

I wouldn’t put too much emphasis on long range models

Perhaps you are right, but just  in case the GFS is right then its  going to take awhile after aug 09 for even a disturbance to develop that might  end  up getting a  name. Maybe tomorrow Knabbs abrupt turn to super favorable will happen and  it will show  3 storms. Just wait and see but  if the  GFS is right  it  will be well past  09aug  before the season gets going.

11 hours ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said:

Isnt a  20-40% of at  least a depression between 07-13 aug  just  climatology? GFS now  up to 09aug with nothing.

2 hours ago, cptcatz said:

Sticking with what I said here.   I don't see getting past like 16-17 named storms.

That  might  be too high. How  in the heck there was a  major  hurricane  in this pattern is rather amazing. Hyperactive is not  happening  now. Dr Knabb was talking  yesterday about an ABRUPT ramp up in early  Aug then posted a scare map of Aug 2004. 2 for  aug  seems a  better  bet than 8 at this  point. The really  cool thing  is  aug/sept 2004 had  much less favorable SST's  in the  east pac and ATL than now showing SST'S, especially in the ATL are not as meaningful as advertised. Dry stable  air  hasnt  been easy to dislodge for  years  now. If there was going to be an abrupt increase  in activity  in early aug  the  distrubances that  need to grow  would  be showing  up now and the  GFS thru aug  05 doesnt even show an abrupt  wave.

Final amendment 21/11/5

Amending  my forecast to 20/7/3. 

18/11/6

2 hours ago, wasnow215 said:

And looks like another 3-4” of rain this Wed night into Thursday. 

Yea, another flood  coming. 

rain mixed with snow  in April

Nothing  like rain mixed with snow after summer  in March

3 hours ago, RVAman said:

No chance in hell that happens haha.

Lots  of  42 and rain though