ldub23

Hopefully  it gets better

The first step to getting winter to take  up camp in the east  is for  California to dry up like a  prune, opposite  of  last  year. Lets hope this  is the  pattern now-Feb

Blizzard cane. Might  be a few drifts

The winter whip is  coming

28 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB latest EURO weeklies.  Looks like after our current cold snap, it does not go well below normal again until after Christmas.  Through mid January, it is cold.

 

Another  punt. Lets hope the  punt  gets  blocked

Not a good sign when severe weather instead of snow is the topic

If you want to see snow turn the  kansas state  game on now  on Fox

On 11/24/2023 at 1:59 PM, DarkSharkWX said:

a bit late lmao, but i finished my winter forecast;its quite long so ill just put the analogs/snowfall/summary here

full read/analysis: https://tinyurl.com/223zv9ec

Analogs:

Top ENSO analogs: 1957/1965/1991*

MEI Analogs: 1986/2009

Top Pacific Analogs: 1965/1972/1995

Polar Analogs: 1957/1965/1987/2009

EMI/Orientation Analogs: 1982/1991*/2015

1957/1965/1972/1987/2009 are my highest weighted analogs

DJF Weighted Temp/Precip Composite


 

The ENSO will likely end up as a basin-wide(with more of a western lean like 1957/65 as Nino 4 warms and Nino 1+2 cools), with periods of Modoki forcing. I do not think that this is a wall to wall cold and snowy winter, but rather bouts of favorable patterns/timeframes, with most of the bulk being in the second half of the winter(Feb). I think we overall end up N-slightly AN for the winter, with Feb being BN, and Dec slightly AN, with Jan being around N. There’s too much variability and unpredictability to pinpoint specific temp anomalies for those specific months, but I still think we overall end up N-slightly AN.

Snowfall:
 

The range this winter is extremely large, with the maximum high-end potential being a top 5 winter or another horrible, low-snow winter. Strong+ ninos tend to be very boom or bust winters. With the exception of 1994/95, every analog year I had was either under 10” or over 30”. As I mentioned before, the main thing that will determine the fate of this winter is the polar domain. With the -QBO/++AMO, as well as bouts of favorable forcing setting up at times, the polar domain is looking good for this winter. While we have a -PDO, the strong El Nino will win out and override the state. The warmest anomalies being over and east of the dateline is a very good thing and very different to the forcing we’ve been seeing over the past few years. The active STJ should provide us with plenty of storm opportunities and ample moisture, snow or rain regardless. Thus, this is also the best chance since 2016 for a HECS/KU. Even if we don’t get a KU, the active STJ provides many opportunities for multiple SECS/MECS. 

That is why I went well AN for snowfall for this year. I doubt we see a near-normal year; either much BN or much AN. There is a lot of potential this year, and as of now, things seem to be looking good. The warm Atlantic will also provide extra moisture for storms. Going around the mid-range this year for snowfall doesn’t appear to be a good idea. This year definitely won’t be that cold overall, but we don’t need extreme back-to-back cold anomalies to get snowfall. All we need is one wave to time up right. With a Nino, the Pacific shouldn’t be too much of a problem this year. ENSO influences PDO, not the other way around; especially at this strength. 

I also went for a more N/S gradient in my map than a W/E gradient. The big nino years here had a more north-south orientation for the gradient than a west-east(obviously being more west still favors more). Although we’ll see some CAD storms, especially earlier in the season, I don’t think we’re going to be seeing too many of them overall. I think the PNA this year will average out to be neutral-slightly positive, with the western ridge flexing at times, increasing in frequency as the winter progresses. This should favor more Miller A/C type storms, which generally aren’t as W/E gradient oriented. 

Given how things appear to be progressing, and the best-looking year in several years, I believe that going bullish on a high snowfall winter is the right decision to make.

Summary:
 

Overall, I am sold for a well AN snowfall winter for the Mid-Atlantic and SE, and BN for NE. The strong Nino and STJ should heavily favor the MA/SE, and lead to suppression issues not much further north. ++AMO favors further S blocking, which in turn favors a further southern displaced track. Along with the STJ and other factors, the main focus of this winter on the EC will likely be the MA.

 

December, although not favored by Nino climatology, doesn’t look that bad anymore, and might be AN in snowfall, with a -NAO setting up for the early part of the month, and forcing returning to favorable phases by mid-late month. Although I expect it to still end up slightly AN, there’s definitely the possibility of the month ending up near normal. We should have a generally transient warmup in mid-Dec before returning to a favorable period later in the month. Although climo before mid-Dec is at best dubious, it is certainly possible to get some events, especially with the pattern setting up. For the month, I could see us getting a few minor events, and maybe even a moderate event. The very end of the month seems to be the best time period for something. I do not expect the PNA to be overall positive, but we could get a few transient +PNA flexes, along with HL blocking around this time. HL blocking setting up in December; and an -NAO is a very good sign for the winter and for higher-magnitude blocks to set up later in the winter. 

 

January looks to be alright, with the favorable forcing from late Dec continuing into the early part of the month. As stated previously, this month will generally be transitional, but the pattern at the start of the month will remain favorable. Thus, after early Jan, it appears to be quiet for a bit, until the end of Jan, where the pattern will become favorable again and continue into Feb. This is also when peak climo starts. Again we might see some +PNA flexes, but it should remain generally variable throughout the month. We should end up around N for this month temp-wise, and snowfall.

 

February will easily be the best part of this winter, with everything lining up: frequent +PNA flexes, favorable forcing setting up, HL blocking, active STJ, and overall peak climo should make Feb exciting. This isn’t too much of a surprise though, as Nino climatology heavily is backloaded and protrudes Feb as the coldest, snowiest month. We should definitely end up BN for this month in temps and AN in snowfall.

 

As for indices:

 

• PDO: slightly BN; -0.4 to -0.9

• AO: slightly BN; -0.2 to -0.5

• PNA: N-slightly AN; -0.1 to +0.3

• NAO: N; -0.2 to +0.2

• ENSO peak: 1.7-2.0(under super)

• ENSO Orientation: West-Tilted Basin-Wide
  
   

overall, should be a fun winter to track w/ the first real nino since 2015

 

very  good

9 minutes ago, stormy said:

Look at this on the 18 z Det. GFS!!

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I've been saying watch near Dec 5th for our first possible snow event. This isn't a strong signal, but it's not that far off a really good setup..

https://ibb.co/vdN2TYW

The reason is a stronger piece of energy is dropping into the SW around Dec 1-3.. when that moves east if we have this 3-wave setup with nothing else, like a Aleutian High, then we might have a snow event to track. El Nino should keep us away from -PNA as this trends closer, but let's see..

5 hours ago, Rhino16 said:

Fall never really gives us anything to hint at a snowy winter here, models look much better than last winter already, so I’m hopeful for something better than last winter.

edit: and from what i’ve heard, late starts aren’t uncommon with niños, however, I haven’t looked at the stats for that.

I hope you are right. Nva might  get  some snow  in 11 days

8 hours ago, Rhino16 said:

Hopefully the cold lovers down there get their cold too.

The  long  boring  just  continues. No winter  last season, no cane season, and so far nothing this fall to say its  going to be a  cold winter with some  snow.

JB says welcome to the  party.

5 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Not really liking the precip anomalies so far offshore. 

Better than 500 miles NW of the area

Close

4 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Agreed. Big test will be to see if:

1.) This pattern holds or improves as we near the timeframe

2.) Do we "kick the can"

3.) Do we score? Even if it's the NW suburbs that get a 1" - 2" slushy coating on the grass, that would be a win.

GFS  has  low after  low after  low  developing  off the SE coast. If that  pattern holds thru Feb there will be several big  snows and some  minor  ones added  in.

GFS has a  cold  push for  T DAY

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

i know people will jump on this because it's JB, but this is all pretty reasonable honestly

Yea, not extreme by any means

JB  puts everyone  on alert. El nino storms

JB updates

https://www.weatherbell.com/winter-seasonal-forecast

It cant be warmer than last winter, right?

3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I just like seeing a continuation of coastal development along the east coast. I’m not expecting anything significant for a while, but with persistent troughing east of the Mississippi showing up on ensembles we could sneak something. Still so early climo wise. I won’t get excited until it’s basically on the doorstep. 

Been a very  persistent pattern for awhile  now.

I should  have  posted this  here