ldub23

Seems  like an awful lot  of dry stable air  if  it  heads  north to the FLA panhandle  or even more west.

JB SAYS  IT!!! Hazel or Sandy after Gaston

By the way, this  is  not  Gaston, This is after Gaston

Has some similarities  to Frederick 1979 though David went  much further west.

The  path, strength, and  even if  it will even exist will change with each model run. The euro does show  lowering  pressures in the west  carib

Most  likely  it will just head west  into central america.

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Can we please fast forward to winter ?

Summer and Autumn are boring

Boring this  year for  sure. Hurricane season 2023 will live  on in peoples  memories for  years to come. Mark that down.

Here  is a  possible  1 storm season storm. Possibly another GFS phantom but  its worth seeing  if any other  model will show  this.

10 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

The ECMWF solution is possible IF the storm remains weak, IF it interacts with Hispaniola enough to slow it down, and IF the ridge can build back overhead in time. 

Three-way parlay anyone? 

 

 

I guess we  have to counter that with this.

It would  have to go from what  it  looks  like  now to a possible  low end  cat4 west  of  Bermuda. Given that  in reality  it  isnt a tropical storm any longer and  its  looks  awful this  seems equally  unlikely. Maybe  it  just opens  up to a wave and just sails  into Mexico. At least as far as  pressure goes the Euro showing a  990 mb pressure while the  gfs  is showing a  941 mb  pressure i would  have to say the euro is a  bit  more realistic in strength but  not  necessarily  in placement.

All in all we still havent  had a trackable  storm this season. Its  not a tropical storm now. Maybe  its remnant will dance thru all the  islands and revive  in the  future  but  for  now  its  2022 on steroids.

Given its  sick appearance right  now  i would say the stronger  models may be  off just a  bit.

JB chimes  in

Wait  and see what  it  looks  like  past  60W

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

12z Euro looks to be taking a little bit further SW track based on 96 hours, when the very weak low center is 200 miles south of PR.

Edit: At 192, it is in the W Caribbean with a strong high to its north. 

Upon further review, the 12Z Euro seems to be combining 96L with some energy coming from the SW Caribbean. Anyone notice this? So, I'll need to later look at the 6 hour maps to see exactly where 96L tracked.

 And upon even more review: Check out the 12z Euro 850 mb vorticity maps. If you look closely, the NE portion of the 240 hour Bahamas low actually is associated with vorticity that is still over Africa, not the low now just offshore Africa, and won't come off til hour 48! I mean this vorticity speeds like a racehorse across the MDR! This is pretty fascinating.

 

Which probably  means  nothing will happen. Hopefully this  is the  map in 12 days with lowering  pressure  over the  bahamas with a  large high to the  north.

I found  myself  rather disappointed  in Rick Knabb today. Just  before  3pm after the  new  Euro was  out  he was still using  last  nights  Euro to show  how  96L was going to develop off the SE  coast. He  had to know the  new Euro was totally  different. Sad to see he did  that.

13 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Finally- something interesting. @GaWxyou have been all over this one. Thanks for the discussion during the doldrums. 

Maybe, it  has deteriorated alot  on satellite  and the  06Euro says  i was just  teasing you. On the  other  hand  the  06 GFS pops a  major  hurricane  literally  out  of thin air  and  hits  the  central GOM coast. Probably  nothing will happen.

It would probably be stronger if it didnt tangle with Hispanola

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2022091300&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=192hr

Any other year and this would be a GO.

For  some reason i cant  get the Euro to go past  192 but  its a  bit  better  in the  bahamas region. Shows pressures  lowering  more than before with a  nice ridge to the  north. For Sept  its  not  much, but  its all we got, lol.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ecmwf-oper/2022091212/slp8.png

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 Now we can add the 12Z JMA to the 12Z UKMET with a TC from this. I know the model sucks overall, but a JMA 168 is far better than a GFS 384 and it is fwiw the first JMA run to ever have a TC from this AEW. This shows a strengthening TD moving slowly NW in the NE Caribbean. This leads to as much 4" of rainfall in the far NE Caribbean..so this isn't just a weak low on here:
 

 

If anything is there  in 7 days the  Euro shows an awesome  pattern.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2022091112&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=168hr

Not the  best  look for  a  memorable  October. Maybe the wheel will show  up.

Early  end to the season still on the  table. Euro shows  2 storms forming  in the East  Pac. This  "burst" of activity wasnt  much. A storm that  had to form from a  non tropical low  near greenland and another  one that  had to escape the tropics.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ecmwf-oper/2022091012/slp8.png

The east  coast trof  hasnt  budged all season.

2 hours ago, thunderbolt said:

I guess everybody will look at La Niña’s a little bit different in the future it’s not a slam dunk like it used to be Obviously there’s other pieces of puzzles that trump la Niña

Im hoping  next  years elenino will end  up active  in the atlantic.

5 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Don't forget that sunny weather is also commonly associated with heat waves.  Heat kills more people than any other weather phemonena.  This summer's European heat wave has killed over 23,000 people.

Obviously, anyone wanting  sunny weather  is a  death dealing  ghoul.

On a serious  note  i got  some  bad  news today. My eyesight  has  been getting really  blurry. I went to an Opthamologist. She  said  i have Ocutropulus. It only effects people squinting at satellite  pictures to find  clouds  in the tropics. Please  pray for  me.

23 hours ago, Hoosier said:

You want to see people's lives ruined?

As opposed to tornados, especially  severe  tornados. that  many people  want to form to watch them or chase them. Blizzards? Rain? Rain has ruined  many lives. Ever  hear  of  floods? Sunny weather? You want people to get skin cancer?

5 hours ago, cptcatz said:

And the 12z Euro just went completely poof on the current lemon.  It's still developing the wave behind that one but I'm sure it'll go poof on that one too in a few days.

It develops the wave  behind  it a  bit but its much much much much weaker than last night. It will be dropped  tonight.

All arguments aside, the  JB-o-Meter is sitting at  zero. As far as tropical storms i would 1 million times want a tropical storm to hit  here than seeing  20 greenland/azores  hurricanes doing  nothing. Im old enough to remember tropical storm Doria back in 1971. Practically went right  over  my house. It was awesome seeing the  outer  cirrus  following by a  lowering  cloud deck with 2 outer  bands bring  heavy squalls  followed  by  40-60 mph  winds with a few gusts  over  70.

**Does anyone think we will ever again see a  well developed  hurricane sitting  at 14n 55w  moving  wnw with no sign of an east  coast  trof?

12 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

The same models that have had a train of ghost storms all season only for little to materialize? I swear the folks on here who act like this is an active season are no better weenies than the snow freaks.

And don't give me the ACE bs -- no one cares how much power is churning off the coast of Greenland.

I agree. Its a totally  dead season. I dont  care about a  greenland hurricane. As  i always  say go into the  winter weather  thread in the  midatlantic forum in Feburary when winter  has  been snowless  in DC with temps  6 degrees above  normal and claim how great a winter  its  been because Butte  Montana has  had  4 blizzards and  is  10 degrees  below  normal. They would think you are an idiot.

28 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Yeah September is looking pretty dead but you still can't rule out one or two October western Caribbean monsters ala Michael/Wilma/Matthew/Sandy.

We can definitely  rule  out wilma  and  2005. This borefest is  nothing  like that. The  other seasons gave some  indications that  something  like that  could  happen. Strong hurricanes  hitting  SO CAL tells  me a carribean monster  isnt  likely this season. May as well hope  for  something  though, its all we got. There will be  no "homebrew" with that  massive trof  off the  coast.

And  yes, bebops  mean nothing  to me.

With the east pac  in el nino mode again i doubt the western basin will be terribly  active.

Thats a  cat5 trof  in the western ATL for  early  Sept.

12 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

12z GFS has zero tropical cyclogenesis and CMC dropped this leading wave as well along with the 00z Euro.  This season is getting pretty laughable.  

About as dead as  it  can get. Dani had to get to greenland to form, early  is still on the struggle  bus until it  can get away from the  tropics, the  one  behind  it  looks  like a dried  up prune.. Looks like a  zero storm season. Still hoping for a  1 storm season but thats quickly fading. Other than a  6hr Bonnie there  has  been no tropical development whatsoever this season.