ldub23

Still nothing trackable. Of  course the  forecasted ridging never  occured.

3 hours ago, cptcatz said:

Agreed. A flip of the switch implies that bad conditions have switched to good conditions, even close to hyperactive conditions as the forecasts called for. We're not seeing that. We're seeing terrible tropical conditions in the very height of peak conditions which had produced two sloppy marginal storms. And looking at the models into mid September shows nothing changing as well. Of course mid September through October could be active but I don't see any switches flipped currently or in the next week or two on the models. 

Yea, a  hurricane that  had to head to Greenland to develop and another  one that limped across the  Atlantic and didnt  do anything till out  of  the tropics  isnt  much of a switch flip for  peak in a season that was supposed to be hyperactive.

Andy Hazelton not  very  impressed. Hilarious amount  of  shear. Later he  says the western basin is  less hostile but  can anything even survive to get there.

1 hour ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

The more hilarious thing is the ECMWF is STILL calling for an active season for the next month despite the current conditions happening. It's very weird. It's our best model and it forecast one of the most active atlantic hurricane seasons on record and despite the fact it's turned into one of the quietest in decades it still refuses to acknowledge that it hasn't been active. It's really weird honestly

Nothing  on the  horizon that would  make this a one storm season. Only  hurricane formed from a  non tropical low  next to Greenland.

Looks  like  not  much after  91L. Still think the season ends early with a Greenland storm the  best  one  of the season.

39 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Bruh you are a trip and I love it  

Normally a warm tropical Atlantic and cool subtropics are a great combination for instability and tropical activity, but the North Atlantic became a furnace. This stuff is so much more than warm=good and cold=bad. 

 

Let  me add to that the Euro came  in and said, "CMC, YOU  MAKE ALOT  OF SENSE"

That  being said 91L  is  on the struggle  bus  big time.

Here is the  12Z Euro. It would still likely  recurve but  its alot  closer than it was. That  is a  very  interesting  pattern the Euro is showing for the east  coast.

If  i were drawing a  pattern for  an east  coast hit it would  be  quite  similar to this.

3 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Has anyone heard from "Sideways" DT??

He  may have  meant  Aug  2023. Some  interesting things to think about this  hurricane season. We  have always  been told that warmer than normal SST's  in the NW ATL would cause  high pressure to lock in there and  make the  overall pattern favorable  for hurricane  hits. As  usual even with well above  normal SST's low  pressure  locked  in. Not  only that but  now we are  being told the above  normal SST's are part  of the reason for  the  slow  season. Also, it was supposed to be favorable  for the subtropics to be  cooler than normal but we are  now  being told thats  unfavorable as well. Anyway, still hoping for  a  1 storm season. Maybe the euro will come  in shortly and say, "i agree with you  CMC"

Since when is a TD a named storm? From now  its  0/0/0/0? LOL. Even if something gets called a storm i still win compared to others who said august  would  be sideways, fast and furious watch and  CSU'S 20/10/5. Aug would  have  to be rather active for that to verify. And  some  on here were rather  bullish for Aug. Its all good though im still hoping we can salvage a  1 storm season.

2 hours ago, Normandy said:

iDUB looking like a strong broken clock!

Ive already  declared  victory. As for the  future the  hope  for a  1 storm season rests with a  future storm on the Euro. Basically  if  it even forms  how far west  it gets  is  based  on how strong  91L gets. 

JB comes to the rescue. No commentary  from me except  i hope  he  is right and we still can salvage some  kind  of season.

6 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

GFS develops 91L as it recurves then has a short lived TS about the same time from a vigorous AEW that dies out in very hostile conditions north of the MDR. Euro doesn’t even develop thus wave. GFS is then suspiciously dead through the end of the run. Ensemble support through this period has really decreased for both GEFS and EPS. It kind of looks like it’s a 91L show then we go back to the doldrums… This is not a switch flipping period in the basin, but a one show pony at least for the next 10 days as I see it

Suspiciously  dead? Its  been that way all season. Im posting this  not  because  of  91L which is  very weak on the Euro, not  that  i care at this  point, but to show as i was saying there  is  squat behind  possible  Dani. Whenever  i hear  people  talking about  how things  have suddenly  become favorable  in the Sahara the first thing  i do is  look behind whatever  is supposed to develop. If the pattern has flipped then we are going to see many lows with good  prospects to develop, especially at  peak in a  season that was supposed to be hyperactive. We dont. There  is  bone dry air  just like all season. I feel sorry  for  JB because  he really wants to have a hurricane season like  i do. There  is a non tropical low(typical of  an ultra dead season) that might be a  nothing and go nowhere well east  of  NJ.  Im not  counting  on an active Sept and  im sure  not expecting  many threats to the  US like the experts said. They said we would  have a  locked  in high  over the NW ATL. I said we would have a  locked  in trof  in the west ATL. Anyway, here  is the  12Z euro with Jack Squat behind  91L. I cant  imagine a  more  pitiful map for  peak. 

This  map gives us an idea  of the  ultra super whopper  high pressures  in the tropical ATL after  91L

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2022082912&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=192hr

And finally  i am very  much aware the season doesnt  supposedly  end on 15 sept. But really, did  it  ever  begin? Here  we  have  on the GFS MR WINTER(winter  pattern anyway) making a  wonderful cool dry appearance. And remember the experts were saying at  peak high pressure was going to dominate the west atl and steer  things  ominously  close to the  coast.

******And there you are.

11/7/3 next season with a few real storms to track

150% of  normal snow from RIC-BOS this  winter.

****And there you are.

20 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

50 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

Miserable way to end the season.
...  
We wont even have a 1 storm season.
...
And there you are.

lol bless your heart. You don't have a major to ravage the coastline. Guess you'll move on to a subforum Winter thread now? Peace out, homeslice!

None  of  us are  here for  sunny pleasant weather. And  i might  be  mistaken but  last time  i looked they were  praying for  a  bitter cold and snowy winter in the winter sub-forum. I suppose that  kind  of death and destruction is  ok. Personally, i like snow but  not  cold.

2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

0Z guidance was a snooze fest 

Miserable way to end the season. If it forms its a recurving nothing so i was quite accurate about the locked in trof instead of preseason forecasts of a ridge. There is nothing behind it as conditions will become increasingly unfavorable. Super typhoon in west pac=zippo atl.

We wont even have a 1 storm season. Larry Cosgrove had the best pro forecast 14/7/2 and even that looks too high.

Even JB cant bother to talk about  it. The  JB-O-Meter is at  zero right  now..

Look at the sky high pressures  in the  Atlantic tropics after dani bebops.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2022082900&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=192hr

And there you are.

Hopefully this  will be the  1 storm of the season. Can it survive the  next  5 days?

4 hours ago, Floydbuster said:

The OOZ Euro shows the system on the doorstep of Southeast Florida in 240 hrs.

The 00Z CMC shows the system just off the Bahamas, moving little in weak steering currents. This model also shows the system not gaining much longitude for about 4-5 days just east of the Lesser Antilles, however.

Also far weaker and it  has  nothing else  but  very  high pressures  in the tropics. Its  1009mb at  hour  222. I seriously  doubt it  can even be that "strong"

The  little thing east  of  bermuda  might  end  up the strongest storm of the season. Way too dry.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2022082800&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=192hr

Everytime  i get  mocked the tropics shut down. Here  is Sept 13 on the GFS. As  i suspected a winterlike  pattern would set  in early giving an early  end to the  cane season. VERY STRONG  LOW AND  FRONT. One question though. Can a season end early  if  it  never started?

And there you are.

JB now agreeing with me about a  cooler than normal Sept and Oct but  never  fear!! There will be a feeding frenzy  in the  tropics( who cares  if there is? It sure as hell aint gonna  be  near the  US)

And there you are.

****11/7/3 for  2023 cane season. Much more active with several actual trackable storms.

*****My winter prediction is  150% normal snowfall from RIC to BOS.

And there you are.

I guess we will find  out soon enough if it even survives. If it survives  it  gets  close enough so small changes  could  mean a  hit. One cautionary  note as  usual. Euro shows  nothing  in front  of  it and just a  couple  of  weak lows behind  it. Is this  the  1 storm for  the season or will the dry air  choke  it  out?

GFS delaying development  yet again. Maybe we should wait to see  if  it  can develop before we worry  about where  its  going.

******GFS much much weaker. Never gets  it  below  1002 mb then takes the weak nothing  low to meet another weak low in a  mid-atlantic dance to nowheresville.

0/0/0 Aug still in play and  now we  have to wonder when a real cane will form. GFS still has  the  gom cane.

And there you  are.

This  isnt the  look i would want to see for  a disturbance to intensify into a  major  hurricane. Very  chaotic  with cloud  fragments everywhere. Im thinking  Hugo looked a  bit  better at this  position

And there you are.

I wish i could take the Euro, but it  is delaying development and  its  quite a  bit weaker than 12Z. All in all rather  disappointing. If the  Euro storm is also a  phantom then i think its time  to hope and  pray the  el nino is weak next cane season so we  have a  cane season.

We will see  if  it can survive.

18Z GFS  much weaker with the super cane and far weaker with the  other  storm, if  it ever forms. I think drying up and doing  nothing  is  more  likely  than a strong recurving  cane. Basically its  unlikely the GFS supercane will happen and also unlikely  the Euro threat to the  US will happen. Peak season in a season that was supposed to be  hyperactive and we  have nothing  of  interest.

At  372 the  GFS has delayed  once again the development  of the  Euro supercane  and  in any case  its a nothing  bebopping. A very  weak low  in the  central GOM. Very  unimpressive.

Here  is what the Euro says  is  going to be a US threat and  supercane. Its going to be a  hard road  just to survive

Not at all impressed with the  12Z GFS. Still has what  i think is a  phantom supercane now  back to hitting Mexico. The  other storm the Euro agreed with is  much weaker and  is  basically  a  nothing  now bebopping  out to sea. The run ends with a  couple  of weak lows here and there. Overall for the  peak of the season that was supposed to be hyperactive there are  no threats. If somehow the  GFS supercane does form then i will eat 3 whole grain crossaints.

The  GFS supercane isnt that far  off  now. Something should  be showing  up soon thats the reason for  it  to form. The  lead disturbance  in the Atlantic may well just dry  up. It has that  look.

Euro finally shows a  possible threat at 240

High in the right  place. This would  likely  be a  monster if  it gets  over water. gfs has something  similar but then it develops some  odd  low that  causes the cane to bebop NE.

Meanwhile the  GFS is alone  in forming the  supercane  once  more

These are 2 totally different storms. Here is the same storm the euro is showing

You can see it in the lower right. If the GFS didnt have the supercane it would likely have the other cane as a real threat. Sadly the gfs also is showing a hyperactive east pac.

06Z has the  cane  slightly  further west. If  not for the  phantom supercane this would  be a real threat as all the  models are  now developing  it.

32 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

I was just going to comment on this once we hit August 31st through the first week of September it is total chaos lows everywhere. 

Naturally  i see  it a  bit  differently. I am discounting the  Texas cane and the MDR still seems like the sahara. At  276 its  little different from this

It  does show this 16 days  from now, but  again 16 days from now. Other than a Texas cane  i think is  unlikely to happen it really  isnt  showing  considering  its  peak in a season that was supposed to be  hyperactive.

***And again i apologize for  not replying to people. I realize  it  makes  me appear an even bigger arse than the arse that  i am. With 5 posts a day i simply  cant reply.

55 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

That wave that comes off the African coast around the 30th is likely our “D” storm. Whether it develops before the end of the month or not we can’t tell, but if it fails to develop in general, I’m throwing in the towel on the MDR this season. 

Surprise!! Im not  too optimistic  on the  MDR. Also the hurricane the  GFS has hitting Texas seems rather  unlikely to me. I still think the  best  possibility is  for  a  brief storm to form just  off the African coast then bebop north. If it suddenly decides to head west  its going to have a  hell of a time surviving.

*** Maybe the  upper  low NE of the  bahamas will become  something weak, but  it would also bebop.

1 hour ago, Tallis Rockwell said:

Everybody is focusing on storms 11 days out because there isn't actually anything solid 1 week out which is still pretty distant for forecasting TCs, unless something seriously changes I can't imagine things getting much busier

One  consistent thing  is everything  keeps  getting  pushed  back and  back and  back and the  ridge  is  gone  gone  gone.

Plenty  of dry air  in the Sahara

And this  is with phase2 MJO. Can we sue the  MJO for  breach of  contract?

1 myth i would  like to correct. Waves dont  sacrifice themselves and  "moisten" up the environment  for  future waves. That  can only  happen if the  amount  of  dry  air  in the Sahara  is static. When the  dry  air  just  keeps  being  replaced any moisture  a wave will bring  is  literally  no more than spitting  in the  ocean. The dry air  being  flooded  in dwarfs the  tiny amount  of  moisture with a single wave. Its  come down now to a  1 storm season. 0/0/0 Aug is  becoming  more  likely.

I wouldnt expect that much in Sept. Its as favorable as it can be now and the Sahara is totally dead. As sept rolls in the good MJO is headed out. I guess the good news is how much worse can it get?

3 minutes ago, Amped said:

Everything seems to be disappearing on models once it gets inside 5 days.

Sadly, it appears the  18Z GFS dropped everything east  of the  islands. Maybe the  supercane will form but  im always skeptical in a situation  like this. But  maybe this  is our  1 storm season.

32 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Not accurate. The main thing is that the ensembles are trying to show a pathway for TC genesis that could get into the Caribbean.

I posted the Papin tweet in the thread but this is a great illustration of what we’re looking at. This isn’t ten days out there either, this is a short to medium range forecast. For genesis—don’t really care about the downstream impact—that’s too early. 

 

At least  its  not 15 days away in fantasyland. In this  case we should  see  immediately  on satellite  if  its real or  not.

JB's cat  isnt  impressed so that  might  be a  bad sign.