ldub23

JB says the  cold will be  centered  over the east this  time when the  pattern changes and  i really  doubt the  pattern will change.

RIC  has a shot but the  southern end  of  snow  never  verifies, nothing  here.

15 hours ago, Conway7305 said:

I wouldn’t be surprised if that LR storm fantasy storm turned into a bigger storm at mid range  or ushers in a bigger storm.  Sometime between the 18th-24th.  Upper level pattern screams storm. 

Lets hope  so

Pattern change  better get going. Virtually  no snow  in the eastern 2/3rd of the  nation 

1 hour ago, Ji said:

lol this is the first time ive ever opened this thread. didnt even know it existed. Good luck boys!

You jinxed it. The storm has  vamoosed.

5 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

The 18z GEFS still has a few hits around the 5-6th. However, there were more hits for ORF and ECG. After that, there is an uptick toward mid-month. 

I  personally think next week is the  only chance  for  accumulating in se va this winter. Still a  chance.

No arctic air anywhere. Very  mild with no sign of  any below  normal temps

1 hour ago, RIC Airport said:

Posting to save @ldub23 time.  

Certainly a good look. But I'm definitely NOT getting reeled in this soon. Need to get to around 10 days before I begin investing time. But the signals are great to see. 

Hopefully the  cold will actually show  up. The  last  so called  pattern change had  2 days  of winter temps and no snow.

This year  is done. The  pattern isnt going to change till late  march when we can enjoy well below  normal temps and rain till mid  may. Will se va  get an inch of snow  next winter?

ICON throws a  bone

06 gfs further  north and warmer. Just  no cold air once again. 

The  only  good thing  is  id rather see it  well south and hope  it  comes north than north and hope  it  comes south

14 minutes ago, Conway7305 said:

Still  plenty of time but not trending well.  GFS Ensembles are  better. Unfortunately GFS usually follows the EURO. May need to wait for pattern change around 15th until we track anything promising. 

 

Waiting till after the  normals start rising isnt  ideal. 

38 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

I wish I had turned the air on before I went to bed last night. I woke up around 3am, surprisingly uncomfortable. We certainly over-performed with the temperatures this week, especially considering how cold it got last week. 

I hope our region cashes in before all is set and done. As you mentioned, the operational runs haven't shown much yet, but hopefully, after the weekend, we begin seeing the advertised pattern take shape. 

So freaking close

2 hours ago, RIC Airport said:

Explain?

Temps wouldnt  be  76 a few days  before and would  be several degrees  cooler during the event

In a  normal winter this would  be a  coastal snowstorm

The  gfs taketh away and the gfs once again giveth

1 hour ago, RIC Airport said:

The 6z GFS was great, but I only get excited when I see consistency and ensemble support. And it was night and day from its 00z run, which I was up for, but I didn't notice anything remotely interesting.

As I said yesterday, the 5th to 10th period must be watched more closely, but it's still too far out to take anything seriously. I am happy we "see" signals for February because the Euro weeklies/GEFS extended are nice and we want to start seeing the operational and ensembles transition to the advertised mid-February to March pattern soon. 

Also, @ldub23, we already established that the 31st/1st is not our storm. When you look at the flow and the track of that energy, along with a marginal airmass, it just makes sense. Plus, there was never any ensemble support for that event. And lastly, I personally put little faith in models like the ICON and CMC, they don't have a good track record for leading the way with snowstorms. 

Yep, 12z went  back to absolutely  nothing

2 hours ago, Conway7305 said:

Yep! Big time run for us validating the  pattern change at least and ahead of schedule.

Several chances

ICON. perfect  low track just  not  cold enough as usual

GFS has 2 possibiities but they both die out before they get here.

198

360

06z is alot  cooler than yesterdays runs  but  no big snow

Almost at  12z

0Z Temps

18z

One ray of sunshine  is the  cold  comes  back better  at  0Z than 18z

18z

0Z