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LibertyBell

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Everything posted by LibertyBell

  1. LibertyBell
    Yeah those things seem to be just as unpredictable as they were 30 years ago hence why noreasters are so hard to forecast 3 days out.
  2. LibertyBell
    We place way too much focus on ENSO, I have a feeling this would have been the case even without a La Nina. In a neutral phase for example. We might need a really strong El Nino to break this pattern (maybe next year lol). I wouldn't mind another 2015-16. Sacrifice December for a whopper come January/February.
  3. LibertyBell
    Yup, I'm just opening this is the beginning of a nice window and we'll score a hit or two in the next two weeks when it'll be much colder than it is now.
  4. LibertyBell
    thats what I'm wondering about- why was the 50/50 "not expected" we used to have these kinds of errors 30 years ago too, seems like some situations are so complex that the prediction error has remained about the same as back then. Fair weather can be predicted just fine, even mid range cold and mild shots, but the things we really care about, like storms like this, they're just as unpredictable as they ever were. Even 2 days out lol
  5. LibertyBell
    it's not about luck though, this was never going to be a coastal snowstorm even with the perfect track.
  6. LibertyBell
    funny thing is, Walt, that we still dont have an agreement on the models and the storm is 2 days away. Back in the 80s and 90s we didn't have a good idea about these storms two to three days out either, so I wonder where things have really improved in the past 30 years. Is this uncertainty due to the atmosphere just being so complex that even with the rapid improvement of technology that we still haven't caught up?
  7. LibertyBell
    I'm at 2000 ft NW of the city through Monday so I'm excited about the storm but I'm also excited about when I get back because it looks like we'll have about a 10 day window between Dec 10 and 20 when it could get quite wintry at the coast.
  8. LibertyBell
    well it's ended here now but looks like a winter postcard scene outside
  9. LibertyBell
    what about that day in February when we hit 80?
  10. LibertyBell
    some of my favorite storms of all time, but I think Jan 2016 tops the list. That infamous Feb 1922 storm would be the best of all time by far if only it was all snow..... Feb 1961 is up there too!
  11. LibertyBell
    2020 could still be the warmest year on record and that would be amazing in a La Nina, let along a strong one.
  12. LibertyBell
    I was thinking of that and/or the Millenium storm, super lite version.
  13. LibertyBell
    revenge of the Millenium storm, super lite edition
  14. LibertyBell
    New Zealand was the first nation to declare a climate emergency and has pledged to go green within 5 years (for all government vehicles and power sources) and says that corporations cannot be relied on to do it themselves and that leadership must come from the government. Way to go, New Zealand and Jacinda Ardern! She's my favorite world leader by far.
  15. LibertyBell
    He's a regular George Carlin lol.
  16. LibertyBell
    Yes...the winter that comes to mind for me is 2005-06 where we had a cold early December (and snow from the city on west) and then a mild latter December and January with a minor snowfall in January and one big snowstorm in February surrounded by warmth and then a cold and dry March and a renegade early April snowfall to get us to 40"
  17. LibertyBell
    Hell you dont even need a big threat for people to get excited around here lol. They're happy if a model ANY model shows what they want to see, even if it's one that shows the planet upside down..... It's the same people who would measure snow with the ruler upside down if it made them think they got more snow.
  18. LibertyBell
    It reminds me of summer lol. How much do the high temps in the Atlantic have to do with this, Chris?
  19. LibertyBell
    Historically do patterns that evolve in the latter part of December lock in for the majority of winter or are early December patterns more likely to repeat again during the winter, Don?
  20. LibertyBell
    But Don aren't thaws normal? If we have a cold first half of December that could return in January after a thaw in between. Maybe we'll have a back and forth pattern with chances of snow when switching between patterns?
  21. LibertyBell
    It was colder in Florida than it was in Maine yesterday.
  22. LibertyBell
    Got an inch on the ground here with a red fox playing in the snow. Nice prolonged light to occasionally moderate snow.
  23. LibertyBell
    I believe in superdeterminism. There are no accidents!
  24. LibertyBell
    In Eastern PA it's been snowing all morning and there's about an inch on the ground. Varying rates, usually light, moderate at times. Also saw a red fox with a big bushy tail wandering through my yard. Looking for wabbits?
  25. LibertyBell
    Yes I never understood people who love eating turkey, I've had seaweed that tastes better.
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