LibertyBell

Are you seeing the same pattern I am, Chris? The farther north you go, the stronger the anomalies. It's like the fire that's been happening in the arctic for years now has finally spread to the northern reaches of our country. Also, something else I've noticed, besides the big increase in big ticket snow and rain storms is that lake effect snowfalls have also gone way up. Have you seen how Erie, PA, has experienced a THIRTY INCH increase in their annual snowfall over the last 50 years? This is a result of late or no freeze of the Great Lakes.

Yeah I just saw a video of a new home that collapsed in northern India from 3 feet of snow.

Don it seems like all the major media outlets are touting a multiweek period of cold and stormy conditions coming up starting next week and lasting through the end of January.. Is there anything to indicate this might be the case? Also I really like your list of NYC area 6"+ snowfalls and the indices at the time. I see you added ISP for an eastern area location, is it also possible you could add a western location to the list, say either ABE or MPO? Thanks!

This was something I was thinking about. I'm sure you've also noticed the drastic reduction in number of single digit and below zero low days. When was the last time JFK went below 0.....1994?

Blocking looks like it will get stronger in the second half of January, Don?

Jan 2016 was a significant shift northward....I'm not sure how much more accurate for east coast storm tracks the models are than they were in 2010 beyond 3 days to be honest.

it really shouldn't.....for years I've noticed that whomever is measuring the snowfall at Central Park is rounding it to the nearest half inch....there are a lot of snowfalls ending in .0 or .5 inch and some were very obviously undermeasured (like Jan 1996 most notably.)

Good, accuracy can only be guaranteed to the inch anyway, there was no reason to make it 29.9.

wow thats wild, what's the highest snowfall in any year in which there was only one measurable snowfall?

they should have their first round draft pick taken away as punishment and given to the Giants fwiw I dont believe ANY NFC east team should be allowed into the playoffs

what do we categorize as arctic air? I say it should be single digits or lower in Jan and Feb, and we haven't needed that for our biggest storms.

dont need arctic cold at all

Yeah I hope the ratings drops will give them a clue to change it back to what it was.

yeah whats with that crew anyway....I'm "naturally repelled" by the "natgas" crew....let's call it what it is: METHANE. No "natural" euphemisms necessary. It's like when the "high fructose corn syrup" people tried to lay the "corn sugar" euphemism on us.

Interesting baseball analogy. The best teams (like the 90s Yankees) use a combo of homeruns and small ball fundamentals. Because depending on just one simply doesn't work.

Bright and sunny here now!

Chris, doesn't this somewhat remind you of March 2001? It had a better outcome for us than March 2001 did, but that event also had heavier snow north and east of us! Another storm like this was Feb 2013.

Walt, we were just concentrating on January events; I wish we could have included April 1982 as it was the most memorable 80s event aside from Feb 1983. April 1982 was 9.6" at NYC and 8" at LGA and JFK, although EWR had about 13" ISP had 16" I think?

Don, would the NAO be about the same as AO, and which is a better predictor for east coast wintry events?

Thanks so much, Don! That was quick work! And AO/PNA data is included!

Thats correct, having lived through those Januarys they were dull and boring compared to what we have in our new warmer climate. Lots of minor events and extreme cold. No school closings so lots of unfun walking in -30 wind chills and slippery annoying conditions!

But it's interesting that it wasn't a disappointment for the coast..... with a +NAO you'd expect a storm to cut and favor the interior yet in that case eastern LI was buried with over 20 inches of snow in Jan 2015!

It's not a myth here....I have a standard that I measure snowy months by and above and beyond everything else, it means number of double digit snowfalls. And January in the 80s had zip zero zilch nada double digit snowfalls here after 1982 (the only double digit January snowfall that I can remember was January 1982) and lots of events that were suppressed to our south or that cut. I was in Brooklyn or the south shore of Nassau County during the 80s (1980-1982 Brooklyn, 1983 and beyond in southern Nassau.) Our new warmer climate has actually meant much more exciting Januarys with bigger snowstorms. Having lived throughJanuarys during the 80s, they were much colder, but also dull and boring with lots of little 1-2 inch events and an outlier 4" event here and there. Even the so-called "exciting" events like Jan 1987 and 1988 didn't hit double digits.

Penn Forest Township near Bear Creek and Lake Harmony, around the same elevation as you!

Thanks Don, I wonder how large the list would be if we just went from 1980 onwards.