LibertyBell

Thanks Don, can you post the link again, I have it saved at my other home and can't it from here. It should be stickied!

also just as important DRY/SEMI ARID PLACES ARE GETTING DRIER WET HUMID PLACES ARE GETTING WETTER AND MORE HUMID THIS MEANS BOTH BIGGER PRECIP RAIN BOMBS AND SNOW BOMBS

I'd like to see a chart showing the minimum temps 7 days and closer in before our 10 inch snowfalls. At least since 2002.....

meanwhile someone on twitter was posting about how to commit the "perfect murder"- it had something to do with melting icicles lol.

honestly and you know this as well as anyone Don, whether it weakens or doesn't wouldn't matter, as it's extremely likely our temps would be above normal anyway. There are far greater forces that control our climate and they set the stage for everything else.

also....the reason why I say there is no defined enso pattern for us is no matter what signal you get, chances are (I'd say 9 out of 10), it'll be above normal temps.....el nino, we have above normal temps, la nina we have above normal temps, neutral, we have above normal temps. It all comes down to timing between storms and the short duration cold shots we do get. You'll be right 90% of the time if you forecast a milder than normal winter, the real talent is in forecasting how much snow and when lol.

they've also been known to be bookended, hence the reason we should be on the look out for early March.

Knowing our luck, we'll be in the subsidence zone while someone either east or west of us gets 40-50 inches of snow and we'll have to settle for 15-20 inches haha

you're definitely not the only one that feels this way, Ray. Having lived through 80s winters when it was brutally cold and we got 2-4 inch deals every other week with no double digit snowfalls between Feb 1983 and Mar 1993....yea this is a lot better.

actually coastal storms should be getting stronger thanks to warmer SST.

I'm like that also, not a huge fan of extreme cold and high fuel bills lol. Although I must say I do like moderately cold and crystal clear skies, it's great for astrophotography and the sun heats up my house nicely during the day.

Yep, especially the first third of March. We usually see winters come back when there's a hiatus for the first half of February.

Having lived through the 70s, 80s and 90s, the climate has radically changed from then to now both in terms of temps and precip (should add humidity levels too). Allergy levels are much worse and so is air quality.

ISO focusing a bit more directly (on snowfall rather than temps which are always going to be mild, we know this already) do you see another 15-20 inches for NYC from the middle to end of Jan? That would get us to near normal seasonal snowfall with the 10" we have already. While I know Feb is forecast to start out mild and dry, in many similar winters, we've returned to another, albeit smaller window of snow towards the end of Feb and beginning of March, which could land us another 5-10 inches. Would you say the odds are about even for NYC to have around 30 inches of snow by the end of the season?

this isn't to say we wont get another snowy period later on in the season, rarely is the last measurable snowfall in January. It's more likely that after a relaxation for a couple of weeks in February we get another snowy period near the end of that month and the beginning of March. The upcoming Mid to late Jan period will definitely be the peak of winter, but dont rule out another 5-10 inches of snow falling between the second half of February and the first half of March. It's happened quite frequently, even in mild winters.

It's likely going to be a two week period from Jan 15 to close to the end of the month. Hopefully we can get somewhere between 15-20 inches in that period.

PD2 is a great example of this. So was the 1960-61 winter. Don is compiling a great list of 6"+ snowstorms from the 1950s onward accompanied by existent index values. It's very valuable info!

the second half of January aint here yet.....

This is pretty much what we thought, isn't it? My prediction is we will be at or close to average seasonal snowfall by the end of January and from then on to the end of the season there will be less than 10 inches of additional snowfall. We'll probably end up with between 25 and 30 inches of snow when all's said and done. It's a lot better than the 10 to 15 I was thinking before December began. So that would be a win.

Are you seeing the same pattern I am, Chris? The farther north you go, the stronger the anomalies. It's like the fire that's been happening in the arctic for years now has finally spread to the northern reaches of our country. Also, something else I've noticed, besides the big increase in big ticket snow and rain storms is that lake effect snowfalls have also gone way up. Have you seen how Erie, PA, has experienced a THIRTY INCH increase in their annual snowfall over the last 50 years? This is a result of late or no freeze of the Great Lakes.

Yeah I just saw a video of a new home that collapsed in northern India from 3 feet of snow.

Don it seems like all the major media outlets are touting a multiweek period of cold and stormy conditions coming up starting next week and lasting through the end of January.. Is there anything to indicate this might be the case? Also I really like your list of NYC area 6"+ snowfalls and the indices at the time. I see you added ISP for an eastern area location, is it also possible you could add a western location to the list, say either ABE or MPO? Thanks!

This was something I was thinking about. I'm sure you've also noticed the drastic reduction in number of single digit and below zero low days. When was the last time JFK went below 0.....1994?

Blocking looks like it will get stronger in the second half of January, Don?

Jan 2016 was a significant shift northward....I'm not sure how much more accurate for east coast storm tracks the models are than they were in 2010 beyond 3 days to be honest.