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LibertyBell

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Everything posted by LibertyBell

  1. LibertyBell
    yeah this is exactly why a slight southward trend is better right now. Get it about 100 miles southeast of NYC.
  2. LibertyBell
    it's better to have a slight southward shift at this range
  3. LibertyBell
    to be honest a dry slot is better, like with the December storm, before it could mix the dry slot came in.
  4. LibertyBell
    was that the storm that caused the tragic crane accident in Manhattan?
  5. LibertyBell
    hmm March 2018? I was thinking of that too.....which also brings in March 1956. Wasn't that a la nina storm also?
  6. LibertyBell
    there's a 25.0 total in there? that has to be a major error.....
  7. LibertyBell
    in addition to temps, high winds will keep ratios lower
  8. LibertyBell
    what would you compare this to, Chris? Feb 1920, Feb 1961, Dec 1992, late Feb 2010, or Jan 2016?
  9. LibertyBell
    sounds somewhat like February 1961
  10. LibertyBell
    15-16 was very similar to 82-83 but even more extreme (in both directions!) In that case, perhaps we can say that climate change caused the greater extremes? 17-18 seems similar to that but with the opposite signal.
  11. LibertyBell
    wow 1996 had two 7+
  12. LibertyBell
    I love owls! Have you seen the piece about climate change causing color confusion among animals that change color in the winter?
  13. LibertyBell
    didn't you have a couple of analogs that included bookend winters?
  14. LibertyBell
    from what I've seen it looks like rain and sleet would only be around for a short time, Don? as the storm pushes east and stalls out it should be all snow
  15. LibertyBell
    this honestly sounds a lot like December, it wouldn't be the first time a pattern returns.
  16. LibertyBell
    there's also a difference between a gradient pattern in December vs one in the heart of winter.
  17. LibertyBell
    Beautiful pics Don! It's nice and sunny here
  18. LibertyBell
    whats the hold up, Walt? I thought the everyone was saying it's performing so much better.
  19. LibertyBell
    I mean the chances with these kinds of storms are that a large percentage of people will get "stiffed" unless it becomes something on the scale of Jan 96 or Feb 03. It could even seem like you wont get stiffed within 24 hours of the event.........and still get stiffed! Remember March 2001, February 2013 and January 2015? The last two were relative "stiffages" but we didn't get the 2-3 feet that were expected.
  20. LibertyBell
    One thing I noticed is that the members that have the low weaker have it moving more slowly and further to the south.
  21. LibertyBell
    Based on the EPS it seems to be less of a hugger than the December system and the SST are colder than they were then (even if still a little above normal, every little bit helps). The margin of error is probably greater than the width of Long Island right now
  22. LibertyBell
    it's awesome to see climate change breaking down the usual boring enso coupling.
  23. LibertyBell
    Chris, do you think this has a chance to be a majority snow event even for us on the south shore, moreso than the December event which was about 70% snow here? We got 8 inches out of that one here, would've been a foot if it were all snow.
  24. LibertyBell
    thanks based on long duration and lots of precip, I have a little list of analogs I've compiled...let me know what you think of these three: Feb 1920, Dec 1992, late Feb 2010
  25. LibertyBell
    Feb. 4-7, 1920 - One of New York's most extended onslaughts of winter weather of all time brought 72 hours of snow, sleet and freezing rain (beginning after 2AM on 2/4 and ending around dawn on 2/7). During this punishing storm, 4.41" of liquid precipitation fell, 17.5" of it in the form of snow (five to six inches of snow fell on 2/4, 2/5 and 2/6); the rest was sleet and freezing rain. For much of the storm temperatures were in the 20s, and winds gusted between 35 and 45 mph, with wind chills in the single digits. This was the storm I was actually looking for https://thestarryeye.typepad.com/weather/2013/01/new-york-city-snowstorms-1979-2011-.html
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