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LibertyBell

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  1. LibertyBell
    interesting they are talking about to 2 ft possibly for NYC and Long Island and fully onboard with the American models (GFS/NAM) I guess the Euro hasn't had a great track record lately
  2. LibertyBell
    here is the discussion https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off SYNOPSIS... A major winter storm will begin to impact the Tri-State Region tonight. The storm will continue into Monday night, with lingering effects lasting into Tuesday night. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A strong upr low can be seen on water vapor near the IL/IN border this mrng. A solid arc of mid to high clouds were overspreading the area ahead of the approaching sys. Increasing clouds will therefore be the theme today, with perhaps some lgt snow or flurries before dark across the swrn third of the cwa. The NBM was followed with the typical adjustments for temps. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... The fcst continues to trend snowier for much of the fcst area. The modeling still leaves a good amount of uncertainty wrt mixing for the ern half to third of the area. The NAM and GFS, including the 6Z NAM, are essentially the cold models. The GFS warmed the bl significantly during the aftn across LI, which seemed unrealistic given the wind direction except for close to the immediate south shore and Twin Forks. It stayed cold aloft. The 00Z NAM kept the bl cold, but surged enough warm air aloft to produce some mixing with sleet for much of LI by aftn. The 6Z run backed off on this. Both models warm things aloft briefly aft 00Z Tue, but by then most of the damage will have been done. The ECMWF came in with a warm soln, which would result in extensive mixing even potentially to NYC by aftn. Based on the good agreement between the NAM and GFS, and the good track record of the NAM, the fcst leans on the American models. It is a lean however and not a full buy in at this point. Snowfall amounts have been increased for almost the entire area. Amounts were lowered on the South Fork however. Despite the fact that we are forecasting up to 18 inches of snow, these numbers are conservative if you trust the NAM. The NAM suggests that 2 ft is reasonable for this event where the heaviest band sets up and where it remains mostly snow. Even LI is not out of the woods for getting these max amounts if the GFS/NAM are indeed correct with the temp profiles. Warnings have been issued for all but the Twin Forks, where the watch has been maintained. This is due to the mixing/rain potential. High winds will also impact the area with the storm. The peak will be Mon and Mon eve. Gusts to around 60 mph still seem likely, especially across the ern LI. Blizzard like conditions can be expected with this storm, especially those areas near the coast that remain all snow. An upgrade to a blizzard warning is not out of the question for portions of the area. Those areas most likely to go blizzard would be cstl CT, NYC, and wrn LI. After the main snow band lifts north of the area Mon ngt, there could be additional bands, albeit not as heavy, on the backside of the sys right thru Tue. The upr low itself passes thru Tue ngt, allowing for things to dry up by Wed mrng.
  3. LibertyBell
    sounds like Jan 2016
  4. LibertyBell
    wow a lot of our locals are predicting over a foot of snow including here in SW Nassau County Don.
  5. LibertyBell
    wild that 1920-1921 was in back to back years someone should do a 3 day analysis of what happened in the 3 day storm lol and how come you dont have the Jan 2016 storm listed, it should be number 2 on the list, we had 3 inches of liquid equiv in that one! edit- you only included February not the overall list lol
  6. LibertyBell
    add JFK Tony, if you could going back to 1960 or whenever their record begins, as well as LGA please?
  7. LibertyBell
    so this would be like a very heavy initial snow followed by a dry slot with very light showers followed by another moderate long duration snowfall as the low starts to pull away on Tuesday?
  8. LibertyBell
    fwiw this actually has more snow on central long island than the previous run
  9. LibertyBell
    I think I'm in a good place being on the extreme western part of the south shore
  10. LibertyBell
    anything other than snow would be a very insignificant part of the storm outside of the twin forks and south of ocean county
  11. LibertyBell
    the snow is gonna be too wet to do that. I'm pretty confident we stay all snow but no way is this going to be over 2 feet and even 20 inches is a very long shot
  12. LibertyBell
    you should write more, writing improves your memory which I discovered accidentally when i started keeping a dream diary and realized I dreamed 20 or more times a night AND I'm not an old timer! I loathe the baby boomers and everything they stand for. I just told one in the financial industry the other day "the world would be a much better place if your parents' generation knew how to use condoms!"
  13. LibertyBell
    fwiw they shouldn't be using lithium, I already complain about lithium batteries in my cameras lol. The technology isn't as developed as NiMH and NiMH batteries last a lot longer- like more than 20 years while lithium batteries (for cameras anyway) fail within 10 years regardless of how often you charge them. I also hate proprietary batteries where you're forced to buy from the manufacturer. so now I've resorted to printing my own dummy batteries using a 3D printer and adapting them to work on AC power which is of course far more reliable than lithium batteries (since they are dummy batteries they dont contain any lithium of course, they just fool the camera into thinking they are lithium batteries and are connected to a power supply which I plug into an outlet. I also made one of these that works on usb power from a laptop or phone and one that works on DC power from a car cig lighter.)
  14. LibertyBell
    yeah I cant see anyone in the CWA getting less than 6 out of this
  15. LibertyBell
    shades of Jan 2016
  16. LibertyBell
    Monday is going to be exciting, looks like this is going to be a photogenic all day windy snowstorm
  17. LibertyBell
    it was way too far south before so naturally it's going to correct itself to the middle. icon? lol I thought that's Ant's model to use when he's being desperate for a snowy solution
  18. LibertyBell
    Nam isn't really the poster child for accuracy lol, besides isn't it getting discontinued soon?
  19. LibertyBell
    there's no such things as trends, I think this was pretty well proven. The models just jump around an average or mean and move towards the middle, which is what the correct solution will be
  20. LibertyBell
    I used to read about these storms during my college years using the NY Times on microfiche and enjoyed reading the weather forecasts from back then!
  21. LibertyBell
    So true Ed! Could you imagine having a 120 mile "super marathon" from one end of the island to the other?! I wonder if we could divide the entire region into smaller groupings based on "official" reporting locations and then see which area jackpots in what percentage based on that....however we then run into the problem of their being no airports on the north shore so we have to look at co-op records and they dont go that far back. For the sake of simplicity...maybe we could do something like this....let JFK represent the south shore of Nassau County, LGA represent the north shore of Nassau County, Islip represents center island, FOK represents the south shore of Suffolk County and the co-op at Mt Sinai represents the north shore of Suffolk County. Then we can add NYC for the city of course and EWR to represent NE NJ. MJX to represent the Jersey Coast. MMU represents near NW NJ and FWN represents far NW NJ. For the Hudson Valley we could use a combo of Poughkeepsie, Newburg, White Plains, Montgomery and Monticello and Bridgeport and New Haven for the CT coast. Add in Danbury if you also want an interior Western CT representative. This gives us a total of 13 subregions.
  22. LibertyBell
    1977-78 was like an early version of the modern years. Funny thing that in 1977-78 it was a huge deal to get two double digit snowstorms (both were blizzards too.) 1960-61 had three, but I cant think of any others from that previous era with multiple double digit events.
  23. LibertyBell
    yes! just checked euro again it has 12-15 inches for your area, same as what it has for NYC-Long Island lol
  24. LibertyBell
    PC with two screens lol....just saw the Euro and it has an interesting output....20-24 inches both NW of here in the Poconos and just south of here in Monmouth County (of course!) with "only" a foot across western and central Long Island. If the Poconos gets 2 feet you're bound to get good snows up there too.
  25. LibertyBell
    that was amazing too, my biggest memory of that storm is coming home from school and both my parents were at work and my door wouldn't open, the lock was frozen or stuck or something. I waited for my mother to come home and by then it had already started snowing and I was just sitting there freezing in the snow. She tried to open the door and she couldn't open it either lol so we both sat there for awhile until family friends got home and then we went to stay with them. We didn't finally get into our house until around 6 PM when my dad got home and he was able to open the door!
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