LibertyBell

Frustrating that neither JFK and LGA dropped into the 20s, they will probably do so tonight. Ironic that this is the earliest Thanksgiving can ever be.

Also when you compare 70s-80s to today it's helpful to notice the changes in NYC vs DC. DC was actually snowier back then than they are now. That shows that storm tracks have become more amped so the higher snowfall totals NYC is now seeing are from storms that would have been suppressed back then. DC is also useful in the sense that if you want to see the future of our climate, thats where it will be coming from.

What was this report they recently issued that gave us 12 years before irreversible changes occur?

What about anomalous record breaking blocking that has been happening the last few years causing weird storm tracks and much slower moving storms?

Those were the only two events of note that year, The 80s were characterized by having very cold Januarys but below average snowfall. We would have cold and dry interrupted by mild and wet, rinse and repeat. The storms were never timed well with the arctic shots unless it was like a 2-4" event. The only 12+ snowstorm was Feb 1983. 2 feet of snow with that one here on the south shore. The April 1982 storm was historic for intensity and also for historic April cold with temps in the upper teens during and after the storm. It's not well remembered but we actually went below zero on Christmas 1980 with a dusting of snow. Below zero temps in December are very rare in the modern era. Jan 1985 on Reagan's inauguration day was the coldest day I've ever experienced here with a low of -2 and a high of 7 degrees. Jan 1994 we got to -2 also but made it to 10 as a high.

At the same time, our local area airports dont have a great track record with snowfall measurements either lol. A snowstorm where JFK measured half an inch comes to mind, where the measurement was made less than halfway through the snowstorm and we had snow plows out and around 4" of snow.

It's like they couldn't tackle the big snowstorm when it came so they picked a little flurry burst to lay down salt for. It's like they got beat up by the big guy and are now picking on the little kid that just happened to walk by to make themselves seem strong. I have a feeling they're going to be proactive for the rest of the snow season. Regardless of the forecast.

and rainfall will keep going up. Its already becoming sickeningly humid in the summer with all these 75+ dew points

I honestly dont think that will happen. It's become far more humid year round than it was and our yearly rainfall averages are higher than they've ever been in recorded history.

It was cold for the entire week in April 1982 and we had a smaller snow event at the end of the week also. The Jan 82 storm caused a plane to go down in the Potomac.

But the 2010s have been even more blocky than the 2000s, and we've seen record levels of blocking in the Pacific now.

you're very welcome, it's just a piece of the puzzle. what SG said is also correct about the AMO.

warmer SST offshore causing storms that would ordinarily pass well offshore to come closer to the coast and big increase in 3+" liquid storms all across the continent with much higher levels of moisture than what we had back in the 70s and 80s. Also much slower moving storms with record levels of blocking in various parts of the hemisphere.

Just west of Hudson Bay it's near -40 C/F

the climate has radically changed, the next time it changes our south shore barrier islands will likely be underwater.

Chris, we're getting much more precip now year round. Even 1960s analogs should be used with caution. I firmly believe we need to stick with 2000- as far as analogs are concerned. 2010-11 was the exception where we had to go to the deep past to find a moderate to strong la nina that was so blocky and snowy.

What kind of barometric pressures are we looking at? I think the Arctic High will pass right overhead?

Feb 2015 was the last time we had every min below freezing in a month.

thats crazy, how many Novembers in that dataset? and the average Dec snowfall was less than 2" wow

I remember that lol. Tshirts and Bermuda shorts in mid March and then snow in early April lol

no snow on Nov 29 and Dec 2?

thats weird- was it Philly that had 34 straight days below freezing? Snow wise I remember a bunch of very small clippers and one missed big event that rained when it supposed to snow lol. Matched the previous February, except then we got virga instead of snow. In both cases we were supposed to get 8-12 inches.

and the predictions were for a great winter and neg nao and all that- glad to see that November at least is radically different from that season.

Yes, and I believe JFK got 1.5" in the October 2011 event while LGA only got a trace. In the November 2012 event, JFK had about 4.5" while LGA had just 1.5" and remembering posts from back then it was snowing but not sticking to anything.

Ed I noticed in early season events the south shore does better than the north shore does. More examples of this are October 2011 and November 2012 JFK vs LGA.