LibertyBell
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Everything posted by LibertyBell
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we wont know the track of this thing before Saturday -
If it keeps people from making predictions 5 days out then it's a good thing. Forecasting should only be done 2-3 days out, anything beyond that is random noise.
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See this is what happens when people make rash storm decisions on a storm STILL OVER THE OCEAN lol. No one should ever talk about long range forecasting when we cant even get 5 day forecasts right.
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50 pct inland runner 10 pct ots 20 pct coastal hugger 20 pct classic blizzard
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fwiw if this is what happens then there should be much less optimism for a big storm at the end of the pattern. So much energy will be expended on this storm that I strongly believe we'll have a few days of cold after this and then the cold will end with a whimper rather than a bang and we'll just go into a sustained warm pattern for late Jan and Feb and this storm we just had may well be the only significant storm we see during the winter (not saying we wont get one in March).
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this is exactly what we had in the 80s. Case in point Jan 85 and Dec 89
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it's the GFS anyway let's see what the Euro does
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Euro is better at sampling this stuff than the GFS?
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yeah and the LR forecasts had an arctic airmass in place through the 25th lol
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I thought we were supposed to have an arctic airmass in place until at least the 25th..... what changed?
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It's compared to how cold the rest of winter has been-- I'm sure a lot of people are shocked it can still get this cold. I just hope we don't have more of these fires.
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I read that they aren't even going to Mexico anymore, they go to the southeast now instead.
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it happened in 2015-16, 1993-94 and 1984-85 with positive NAO too.
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Just before the snows came last week, I actually saw a butterfly near my bedroom window. I was utterly shocked that there were still butterflies here. I guess it's gone now.
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dry cold air means we need to drink more water lol
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wait does that mean sub zero with snow cover doesn't slow the spread of invasive species?
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so we actually want a mild winter there sure explains 2015-16 lol
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"thread the needle" is the most important group of words to take from that
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what exactly is causing such a variance in tracks? Isn't there some kind of error correction code that can be programmed into these models to make them not vary so much?
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Unfortunately the last few times it's happened we had no snow on the ground I'd rather have temps in the 20s with snow.
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Id rather have snow over arctic cold
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People are expecting NYC to go below zero thats like a once a decade occurrence if even that anymore, probably now more like a once every other decade occurrence.
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Wow! Not getting anything like that around here....why do these squalls always seem to happen at night? A few years ago we had intense snow squalls that lasted almost half the night do you remember those? It was as if one squall ended and the next one began. I remember they started around 4 PM and didn't end until after midnight. The streets were snowcovered the entire time.
