LibertyBell
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Everything posted by LibertyBell
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Right the GFS is the odd person out. Also check the above PDF from the pros, it's pretty clear cut that the 6z and 18z have far lower verification scores, I'm not sure why anyone questions it anymore.
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https://ams.confex.com/ams/27WAF23NWP/webprogram/Handout/Paper273676/GFS4cycle_2015_NWP_Chicago_15A.pdf All cycles have been steadily improved. • 12Z cycle is comparable to 00Z cycle. • 06Z and 18Z cycles are worse than 00Z and 12Z
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Thanks where do you find these? Is it about the same for JFK?
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It's true, someone posted the verification scores of the GFS and the 6z and 18z consistently ranked as the lowest.
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So Don, the AO could be going negative just in time for this storm starting Friday night? What about the NAO?
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You need to move back to CT lol. It's way better for snow than where you are now.
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6z and 18z runs are less than useless as far as the GFS is concerned.
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It need to get further west but 10" is pretty good in a storm that maxes out under 18"
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lol it's amusing to see how the phrases used in the NE forum have migrated to the other subforums
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How many have 20"+ back to at least the city.
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Wow, excellent, so the data input into the simulation showed we got 25 pct more snow in Jan 2016 because of this change?
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Life is a lot easier if you only pay attention to 0z and 12z model runs, trust me.
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https://www.forbes.com/sites/nicholasreimann/2021/08/05/major-atlantic-current-may-be-on-the-verge-of-collapse-scientists-warn/?sh=42b0d96a47aa The study, which appeared in the journal Nature Climate Change, found several signs that Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), of which the Gulf Stream is a part, is slowing down and might be about to collapse.Aug 5, 2021
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It matters if it's the gulf stream is warmer than normal, I'm not sure the near coastal waters have much to do with it. Slowing down of the gulf stream and the thermohaline circulation matters too.
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Higher ratios may give you double that even on this run.
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Yeah that was just last year....around this time! Those 40" plus totals had a pretty wide coverage too-- I think some got near 50"
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Lol I used to be a Giants fan. I got fed up with how they treated Eli and how they mismanaged their players and the drafting of a Duke QB. They are way behind the times and they need new ownership not just a new GM. Their former GM should have been fired and kicked out on his ass in the middle of the season and not allowed to "retire" or whatever he did. I don't like the Bills or even the city of Buffalo (it's full of corruption).
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Yeah that's the first time I've seen a storm drop 3 feet of snow in central Suffolk while it rained for the first half of the storm in western Nassau and then we changed over and got a foot of snow.
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Aren't the major players still out over the Pacific?
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I dont trust any 6z or 18z model runs.
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very high Atlantic SST provides the fuel, which the combo of arctic air and the low ignite.....this is the result. Feb 2013 is a case in point, with ridiculous 3 feet plus totals across Long Island and CT.
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Yeah but we can't expect perfection all the time. Those combos are very rare, so we take what we have and make the most of it.
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Could climate change create an even bigger event than we would otherwise expect? I'm talking about three feet plus totals somewhere....
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I dont care if the sun has to go supernova for this to happen-- MAKE IT SO!
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The storm should slow down as it rapidly strengthens and the trough tilts negative. Dont need blocking for a 24 hour storm.
