LibertyBell

Yeah I like the idea of a Low track between say Block Island and Nantucket....let's see if that happens.

It won't go "a lot" there isn't enough time for that.... but getting it just inside the BM should be doable.

But the snowfall numbers seem to have gone up. the furthest west this can go is likely over the eastern end of LI....I dont think it gets that far west (thats where the westernmost ensemble members are on the new Euro), but just inside or right over the BM is probably more likely than going east of the BM.....remember the stronger this gets the more likely it is to be on the western side of the ensembles.

the furthest west this can go is likely over the eastern end of LI....I dont think it gets that far west, but just inside or right over the BM is probably more likely than going east of the BM.....remember the stronger this gets the more likely it is to be on the western side of the ensembles.

yup 5 days to go and there is a usual trend west with these. 20 miles per day for 5 days? I can walk that distance

Nothing really keeping it from moving 100 miles west at least-- and with 5 days to go, it probably will.

Uhm if they occur mostly at night there's nothing worth seeing.

Looks like this might be big out this way too. Someone in the NYC forum said it has a Feb 1978 feel to it and I compared it to Boxing Day 2010

This now introduces mixing into SE MA doesn't it?

More like Boxing Day but granted I dont remember 2/78 outside of seeing a lot of white outside

This could trend towards a Boxing Day type event, there is nothing really keeping it from going even further west.

Well at least they are a real NY team. the NJ teams are total failures lol

Looks like B&W TV

SE Ridge is your friend

where is that SE ridge that's supposed to be a permanent feature of our new climate? In theory at least OTS storms should be way less common because of how much stronger it is compared to previous decades in a warmer climate and with warmer Atlantic SST.

I thought it's the benchmark for everyone?

Yup as did the city. It happens over and over again, I think it's because urbanized areas can't experience that kind of extreme snowfall event so late in the season.....too much concrete.

Long live 2002 and 2010!

It's not that, it's purely statistical based on how rare double digit snowstorms are in a hostile pattern. And where I live double digit snowstorms no longer happen in March. I would say that from now until the end of the season the chance of a 10 inch snowstorm are less than 10 percent. 6 inches? Maybe 25 percent 4-6 inch storms are a different beast altogether and can happen in any pattern. It's why I specifically referred to double digit snowstorms as being extremely unlikely, not the smaller ones.

What causes wavelengths to change and why can't they change in the middle of winter?

That might have been possible but we already had a 6" snowstorm here. I guess it could still happen in March but the chances of a double digit snowstorm are highly unlikely.

One thing to realize is with this fast flow all events are thread the needle events regardless of how cold it is. This area is very dependent on coastal systems and when they dont happen 90 pct of the time it wont snow. If you're not going to have a coastal storm the only other way to get snow is to have LESS COLD AIR and to have mild air down by southern NJ setting up the storm track there. And that's why we are in a thread the needle type pattern. People always talk about gradient patterns, well we have thread the needle patterns too- and this is it. It can't be too cold or too warm it has to be just right for it to snow here in this kind of stable pattern. And on another note, these fast flows have become much more common lately, might be another function of CC.

12-15 here was a snowfall hole too lol. It's why I like strong el ninos, they are usually huge here.

December and February. It fits my qualifications for a good season -- we need at least two months of snow.

Something I've noticed that was also true in the 50s....when March is your snowiest month it means the winter wasn't all that good. My specific definition of a good snowfall season is to have at least two months with a foot or more of snowfall each. Doesn't have to be a specific duo, it could be any two months.