LibertyBell

what causes this persistence? Strong bermuda high?

The other thing with Haiyan which I found amazing (not in a good way) was it's large size. We typically don't see such a large physical size with storms of such extreme intensity. The West Pac can sustain them much better than the Atlantic can of course.

Wow will this be as bad as Haiyan was there?

Yes Korea is considered the equivalent of NJ as far as SST and hurricane impacts are concerned.

Records October 29, 2012 - Hurricane-hunter aircraft measure Sandy’s central pressure at 940 millibars – 27.76 inches - the lowest barometric reading ever recorded for an Atlantic storm to make landfall north of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. The previous record holder was the 1938 “Long Island Express” Hurricane, which dropped as low as 946 millibars. October 29, 2012 - The surge level at Battery Park in New York tops 13.88 feet at 9:24 p.m., surpassing the old record of 10.02 feet, set by Hurricane Donna in 1960. October 29, 2012 - New York Harbor’s surf reaches a record level when a buoy measures a 32.5-foot wave. That wave is more than seven feet taller than a 25-foot wave churned up by Hurricane Irene in 2011. https://www.cnn.com/2013/07/13/world/americas/hurricane-sandy-fast-facts/index.html ctober 29, 2012- Approaches land as a Category 2 storm.- The New York Stock Exchange suspends all trading operations.- Hurricane force winds extend 175 miles out from Sandy’s eye, making it much larger than most storms of its type.- US Federal offices in Washington area close to the public.- United Nations headquarters in Manhattan closes.- Metro in Washington closes its transit service.- Close to 11 million commuters are without service.- West Virginia Governor Earl Ray Tomblin declares a state of emergency due to snow and rain from Hurricane Sandy.- 6,700 National Guard are on active duty or in the process of activating to support the governors of the states affected by Hurricane Sandy.- Hurricane Sandy weakens to a post-tropical cyclone in the evening before making landfall along the coast of southern New Jersey.- At least 110 homes burn to the ground in the Breezy Point neighborhood of Queens, New York. The cause of the blaze is not immediately released.- Three reactors experience trips, or shutdowns, during the storm, according to a Nuclear Regulatory Commission statement.

Authorities in the province declared a state of emergency for the town amid "multiple electrical fires, residential flooding and washouts" Saturday morning. René Roy, editor-in-chief of Wreckhouse Press, a local news publication, described a scene of carnage in the storm: uprooted trees, at least eight nearby homes vanished in the wake of a violent storm surge, cabins floating by, a boat carried by floodwaters into the middle of a local playground. "I've lived through Hurricane Juan and that was a foggy day compared to this monster," Roy, 50, told CNN. Hurricane Juan battered the Canadian coast as a Category 2 storm in 2003, knocking down power lines and trees and leaving behind extensive damage. "It is surreal what is happening here," Roy added. I hate this term "superstorm"-- it causes a lot of problems with insurance adjustors. There is a simple solution, ANY cyclone with winds of 75+ mph should be considered a hurricane-- tropical or not! Fiona had been a Category 4 storm early Wednesday over the Atlantic after passing the Turks and Caicos and remained so until Friday afternoon, when it weakened on approach to Canada. It became post-tropical before making landfall, meaning instead of a warm core, the storm now had a cold core. It does not affect the storm's ability to produce intense winds, rain and storm surge, it just means the storm's interior mechanics have changed. Fiona had the potential to become Canada's version of Superstorm Sandy, Chris Fogarty, Canadian Hurricane Centre manager, said before Fiona hit. Sandy in 2012 affected 24 states and all of the eastern seaboard, causing an estimated $78.7 billion in damage. An unofficial barometric pressure of 931.6 mb was recorded Saturday at Hart Island, which would make Fiona the lowest pressure landfalling storm on record in Canada, according to the Canadian Hurricane Centre.

That 0.13 seems to be low for this area, it's surrounded by 0.4-0.5 amounts which seem more in line with what we had.

Not much will be left on that inland track. It's okay noreaster season is right around the corner. We'll likely get one sometime in October, probably in the latter part of the month.

woah that's the other RI? I wonder if it'll make it to Cat 5

My space heater is on lol

I used to think that too, but I'm not so sure. I've read research going in both directions about warmer waters causing more TCs and also fewer TCs but the ones that occur are stronger ones. There's another consideration-- what if the warmer waters are actually changing the predominant path of TCs? East coast TC seem to have gotten less frequent than they were in the 30s through the 50s. Now we seem to have more Gulf Coast TC and also the warmest waters seem to be further out in the ocean so perhaps that's why they seem to hit eastern Canada more frequently now? We just got out of a + AMO period and we didn't have nearly as many east coast hits as we had as the last time we were one of these periods.

They're saying the drought made the trees weak. I heard more about the one in NY, a tree came down on a car in Queens with the driver still inside.

They're talking about frost in the Poconos. Did you hear reports about trees going down? I lost a large sugar maple in the Poconos that brought down other, newer trees. I've also heard a report on the news of a large tree coming down in New York.

Wow, I thought it was normal to have at least one low temp in the 40s after the equinox. Highs in the 60s and Lows in the 40s.

That Hog Island Hurricane would have been a huge impact for us if it was stronger. 1938 I wonder about if it went on the same trajectory further west would it be as strong since it would be scraping the coast or would its forward speed keep it from losing any strength by friction from land? How come no one has been talking about this storm for next week and posting maps, etc? On the news they've been talking a tropical impact for next week.

Remember what I said to you last Spring....I felt like we were going to turn the corner back towards dry summers and here we are. Looks like the AMO going towards its cool phase played a big part in this? It's going to be nice to get into more of an 80s to early 90s kind of summer pattern again!

I loved this summer I hope we get many more like this. Really tired of all the rainy buggy humid summers and it's so nice to get a dry/hot summer again.

the la nina after el nino connection is stronger

Yes that was an important change! This is going to be stronger for them than Sandy was for us! I wonder if the storm surge will be over 10 feet?

I was looking at the one from the 1800s that hugged the coast and thought we'd need something like that but that was so far out of the ordinary it seems to be unlikely. One thing that makes me pessimistic about it (maybe I should say optimistic lol) is that it always seems like we get these fronts that push these storms out to sea or the storms go into the southeast. It seems like we need a perfect thread the needle scenario to have a storm bend back into the coast up here. I've seen both Nova Scotia and Newfoundland get hit by hurricanes several times though.

Thats what I thought too when I saw that Hermine went to the wave off the African coast.

Maybe NYC will get into the 40s tonight

Whats the previous record holder-- Hazel?

Would it have been an actual hurricane if it occurred a month earlier? Another question, a month earlier would it have taken a more "regular" N to NNE track? I'm still highly suspicious that NYC can ever get a direct hit by a major hurricane-- our geography and the geometry of the coast forbids it. I can see the eye of such a storm going into southern NJ or central or eastern LI but NYC? Not really. Maybe eastern parts of the city, like JFK (but that would still be less likely than one hitting Nova Scotia), but that would be the closest I could ever see the eye of a major hurricane getting. A hurricane would have to travel inland at least some distance before hitting Manhattan directly. I actually think a Cat 3 hitting Nova Scotia is more likely than such a storm directly hitting Manhattan. One hitting Nova Scotia is probably more likely than one hitting any part of the city-- including Queens and perhaps even Nassau County. By the way did you hear about the new study done at Queens College showing that people who were in the womb during Sandy are much more likely to suffer from depression and ADHD today? It was a significant difference!

Hey it's understandable. Most winters suck where I live too, we're conditioned to them lol.