It looks like models are consistently underestimating that western atlantic ridge as well as overestimating the amount of cold air we now get....figured both are connected to those steamy SST offshore.
It is especially if it's humid. Do you have any data for near Allentown? I spend a lot of my summers up there, and just north of there near Lehighton and Jim Thorpe.
That dry weather was spreading east last year. I think we are going towards more of an 80s type pattern, which is good, because it means less bugs.
Looks like the Antarctic sea ice is also suffering now.
Yeah it reminds me of a farther east version of February 1989...a busted forecast of course.
Back in the 80s and 90s we had a lot of blown forecasts when either the storm didn't go as far west as expected (more common) or went farther west (rare) and we got a positive bust. Sometimes (like in December 1989) they went too far west and we got a rainstorm in the middle of a very cold pattern lol.
lol probably can't....I think Boxing Day was a surprise when it showed up on the models like that.
More cases of being surprised when a snowstorm that was forecast doesn't happen though....like March 2001 or January 2008.
January 2015 was somewhat of a surprise because of the big forecasts that didn't work out.
But I guess that's about it-- getting surprised happens less now because the short range models (within 48 hour forecasts) are usually really good.
You remember how often we got surprised back in the 80s and 90s (and usually not in the good way lol-- though there were a few of those too).
Wow thats weird so few 90 degree days-- we've had more 90 degree days than that here on the south shore of Long Island
Also, high temperatures get muted with more cloud cover and higher humidity unfortunately-- I love very hot 100+ dry days...
Not new normal, but we're going to see a lot more winters like this-- boom or bust is the new norm, which means fewer average winters and much more nothing or everything winters.
More info on the green comet.
https://abcnews.go.com/US/green-comet-pass-earth-starting-week/story?id=96335242
10:22 AM
comet information
10:22 AM
best seen 3 am to 5 am Jan 18-25 northern sky near the little dipper and the north star
10:22 AM
traveling from northeast to north to northwest
10:22 AM
rises earlier later in the period can be seen after sunset by Feb 1 and will be very close to Mars by Feb 10
10:23 AM
late Jan is better because of the new moon and darker skies before dawn
10:23 AM https://gothamist.com/news/a-green-comet-is-sailing-over-new-york-and-earth-for-the-first-time-in-50000-years
10:23 AM https://nypost.com/2023/01/10/green-comet-to-become-visible-for-first-time-in-50000-years/
10:24 AM https://earthsky.org/astronomy-essentials/new-comet-might-get-bright-enough-for-binoculars/
10:24 AM https://www.newyorkupstate.com/news/2023/01/rare-green-comet-to-brighten-night-sky-for-first-time-in-50000-years.html
10:24 AM https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/videos/whats-up-january-2023
10:24 AM https://abcnews.go.com/US/green-comet-pass-earth-starting-week/story?id=96335242
10:27 AM
https://www.wymt.com/2023/01/11/how-view-rare-green-comet-passing-by-earth-first-time-50000-years/