LibertyBell
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Everything posted by LibertyBell
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hey let it all go out in a big bang with PD3 !
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wow even that last one is good, but these have low skill beyond 2 weeks correct?
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I love these up in the mountains, you get light accumulating snow all day sometimes.
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Only exception I can think of is JAN 2016 but in that case long duration and high precipitation amounts- 3 inches of liquid- trumped the high winds! -
Wasn't Jan 1996 one of these EE storms? and Jan 2016 was a NAM-GFS storm? Boxing Day was all GFS? Feb 2006 was a GFS-JAP storm? PD2 was Euro-NAM? I'm trying to remember what models did best for all of our 20+ storms....do you think someone could make a table about this and the various indices and ENSO conditions at the time?
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Anafrontal Passage Rain/Snow Threat 1/19/2022-1/20/2022
LibertyBell replied to HVSnowLover's topic in New York City Metro
I think it's more likely that this doesn't happen rather than the follow up storm. -
GIGO as far as data input is concerned, as you get closer to the event the data is better so the models become more accurate.
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how long would this event be? 24 hour snowstorm?
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don't need that much cold anyway, all we need is average cold and that's what it looks like we'll have in the beginning of Feb
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Thanks Don, looks normal to me which is fine. Do you think Walt's ideas of snowfall chances through mid Feb has merit? Do you have the anomaly map for the second week of Feb too?
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this is pretty effing cold even if it is mid Jan-mid Feb any way to isolate Feb from Jan in this map and just do the first two weeks of Feb? when I hear the word "weeklies" I assume that they give week by week anomaly maps
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arctic front snowfalls do seem to be a nowcast thing
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Walt, is that a report of 0.5" at JFK? I didn't see a single snowflake here before the snow showers that happened earlier tonight.
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Yes just heard of 70 mph winds on Fire Island
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It's snowing here on the south shore too, I can barely see it in the street lights but we're definitely getting it.
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Lee Goldberg already has the snow icon up for Saturday. He said that we'll either get a snowstorm or just miss it, but his confidence is high enough for snowstorm .
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You're in a different boat entirely, you're on the east end lol.
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Oh I hate cold and dry too (I assume thats what you meant.) I just meant let's say if we get 2-4 inches here and 50 miles south of here gets a foot. I wouldn't be extremely happy about it, but it's better than getting all your snow washed away by rain. The ACY snowstorm wasn't something I liked either, because we didn't get diddly from that, very much like the Feb 1989 event.
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I think your view might be a bit biased because of your location. On Long Island the chances are significantly higher.
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I'm a snow purist so I'd rather see no snow at all over seeing snow washed away by rain. It's just a thing I've always had since the 80s.
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Hopefully that trend works out.... NW trends are more likely than SE ones in the majority of cases.
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Yes which means this is easier to track for this area.....much less to worry about.
