LibertyBell
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Everything posted by LibertyBell
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it may hit 70 on long island today, brighr and sunny
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we're in the eye of a hurricane, JC; enjoy!
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It's pretty apparent that a good Pacific is way more important than NAO blocking, I've seen enough bad NAO blocks to know that they carry false advertizing. Give me a great Pacific over NAO blocking any day, week or year. I've seen plenty of nao blocks that didn't work out.
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It's awesome huh.....we have had like 3 events total one with zero accumulation, one with a light coating on some elevated surfaces and one with a solid coating but also only on elevated surfaces....none of these stayed on the ground more than an hour or two lol We also set the record for warmest January in recorded history and only three days with a low below freezing.
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0.2 at JFK so close to perfect futility and it feels like spring now and planting has begun
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This is just like one extended December 2015, I've already begun planting. at JFK 10 of the last 35 seasons have had fewer than 10" It's more common to get less than 10" than it is to get 40" and almost as common as getting 30" Used to this now.
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My Winter Outlook for 2022-23
LibertyBell replied to raindancewx's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
How did your predictions do so far? I look forward to seeing everyone's verification scores at the end of the season. Do you do yours at the end of March or sometime in April? In the Northeast and especially the Lakes region outside of Buffalo but also along the coast, it really hasn't snowed much in a few years, businesses that involve snow have been shutting down and looking for other kinds of work as climate patterns shift (an example is how the lobster business is dwindling with warmer ocean temps and the lobsters have been moving north of Maine and into the coastal waters around the Maritime Provinces of Canada.) -
lol well since it lasts for an entire week, it's like a vacation
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Most definitely, I was on the 89-90 train as soon as late December didn't work out.
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I heard about it, I hope no one is burning leaves....
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wow thats a lot warmer here than today-- is that likely? with no sunshine?
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warm and sunny and dry is way better than mild and rain and humid, the last thing I need is more mold
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Indeed, we've been discussing if that's why the December pattern didn't work out.
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Newark hit 70 today, NYC 67. A normal spring day here with a gusty southerly sea breeze keeping the south shore a dozen degrees colder.
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a very long time ago. I wonder if we can get one of those cold and snowy winters to repeat too lol March 1914 incoming?
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Thats an awesome thread I read it to the end and when he concluded about the government and media response leaving a lot to be desired
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Have there been any with more than 6" in December and less than 3 inches January-February Don?
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No it was not, 2010 was a historic pattern, this one wasn't. The temperatures don't even come close to matching. This was way more like the 80s pattern which was way before your time dude. Plenty of cold snowless Decembers then.
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I mean I was thinking of your luck scenario actually-- let's say it had snowed in December (ballpark figure...6-10 which is probably where the predictions were based on blocking.)... how often does a blowtorch January-February couplet happen after that? I settled on 6-10 because I distinctly remember Don saying back in December that while the blocking pattern was good, there were other factors that made him believe that while December would be decent (and 6 inches of snow would be decent), he didn't expect double digit snowfall in NYC.
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Yes, I think with the shortening wavelengths we could see something decent-- that's what usually seems to happen in patterns and winters like this. What fails in January and February can succeed in March. That's the main reason that March was the snowiest month in the 50s.
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I should have added this to my other post, but this is why I'm against luck: Honestly don't remember any winters where we had a snowy December and then a complete blowtorch like this for January and February. That's what makes me feel like the solution was "baked in" from the start. it also comes down to the idea (which I strongly believe) that the future solution is baked in from the start-- it goes beyond meteorology, Einstein actually championed this idea that the future is pre-determined....using this, you don't need "luck"...the concept is called superdeterminism.
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But would this winter still be remembered as a horrible blowtorch because of January and February? So basically, this winter would be a bad winter regardless of what happened there? I honestly don't remember any winters where we had a snowy December and then a complete blowtorch like this for January and February. That's what makes me feel like the solution was "baked in" from the start. it also comes down to the idea (which I strongly believe) that the future solution is baked in from the start-- it goes beyond meteorology, Einstein actually championed this idea that the future is pre-determined....using this, you don't need "luck"the concept is called superdeterminism.
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Yes, based on the numbers Chris posted, I'm using JFK numbers, which if I remember correctly are 10 out of 35 with under 10" and 12 out of 35 with over 30"....for us, it's more about either under 10 or over 30, it's close between those two.
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what I see is, some people who are biased for snow are saying one thing, and other people who aren't are saying something completely different. Having experienced some truly amazing winters, I don't feel like I have a bias anymore because I expect I've already experienced the best in winter weather that I'll experience in my lifetime. But this outcome we had this winter is much more likely than the great winters we mentioned the other day. And this winter will be remembered much more for the complete blowtorch in all of January and February than it will be for one missed chance in December....this was always going to be a bad winter, and it's really not even close.
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also...10 out of the last 35 winters have had less than 10" of snow here. It's more common than getting one of those really good winters we talked about the other day. So statistically speaking, this is a more expected outcome than having a great winter.
