LibertyBell

Thanks so much Walt.... why don't people just call it an arctic front snowfall? That's what we called it in the 90s.

Yup although some consider Jan 1987 a KU storm. NYC had no 30 inch snowfall winters between 1978-79 and 1992-93

Looks like we didn't even make it to 10" snowfall without a KU event outside of 2018-19 which was a vast outlier with 20.5" of snow without a KU event. Wait, 2017-18 had 4 KU events?! I must've missed that! With 40.9 inches of snow were they all 10 inch events and that's all the snow we had the entire season?

There is still the likelihood for a big one as the pattern shifts to warmer weather-- root for that.

Thats right and if it means the cold air has to go to make it happen, that's a nice trade off. Nothing worse than worthless cold air.

Probably more like 1-2 for us here on the south shore, most of our outlets are talking about rain for a few hours at the beginning.

it's why all the locals are going with 1" of snow, best to keep expectations low.

See the 1980s when it was actually colder than this in January (avg temps around 25) and we saw even less snow than this. Or December 1989 which was even colder with even less snow. You want to have more snow around here? Find a way to nuke the Pacific Ocean and get rid of it.

and I'm going to go back to the idea that LR forecasting is pseudoscience. Can you imagine if physicists were given this kind of leeway when they developed the quark model? They would be laughed out of the profession. If you can't achieve a high verification score then it's not even worthy of pursuing. You have all these different models etc-- which is a sign of disorder and disarray. When physicists had a similar situation with an overabundance of particles, they developed the quark model in the 70s which consolidated and simplified everything into a few basic building blocks that explained how reality actually works. Until LR "forecasters" are able to do that, it's hard to take them or their "science" seriously.

Good because this is the pattern change you mentioned-- didn't you say that there would be a good chance for a big snowstorm just before the pattern changed to warmer? It would be worth it to actually get something, otherwise tracking weather is an extremely boring hobby.

We'll have a chance for one big snowstorm, and it will come right before the pattern changes to warmer weather. You agree with this, Chris?

Predictions by all the news outlets is rain first changing to snow later with totals of around 1 inch.

Did ACY get bigger snowstorms than us back then? I think so if we're talking about 1988-89 and 1990-91

Going with the idea that we will get a big snowstorm but it will happen just before the pattern changes to warmer?

It's okay, don't jump off the ledge. We'll get you the help you need....we promise! Just don't jump!

didn't you have a condition for when the NAVGEM turns out to be right?

1973-74 and 1974-75 seem to be okay but outside of those, some very lackluster winters (and lackluster tropical seasons too).

Thanks so only T at JFK? That report of 0.5 inch is so close to JFK though, that's our friend "noreaster" in Howard Beach, he used to post here.

How heavy is it up by Albrightsville-Lake Harmony area?

Lehighton to Toms River is a WNW to ESE trajectory- with the wind direction I suppose?

meanwhile the sun is out here lol just north of there

I remember the LIRR was shut down for a week, no commuting into or out of the city. That was the first 20" snowstorm in 13 years and no one knew how to handle it. Also undermeasured, an argument could be made that it was closer to 30" than 20"

Yes I really wished they'd upgrade the NAM instead, but I guess it will live on in the FV3? The same way that the MRF transitioned to the GFS I suppose?

Getting it up in my area too, I wonder if this will last most of the day?

NAM is pretty underrated, especially when it comes to the big ones. It's like that HR hitter that usually strikes out but somehow bring him up in the bottom of the ninth with two outs and he hits HRs lol. Those are truly rare....most strike out HR hitters strike out in the clutch way more than they usually do. The only one I can think of off the top of my head who was the opposite of that is Reggie Jackson. So the NAM is the Reggie Jackson of weather models lol.