LibertyBell

Thanks that was another really good unpredicted snowstorm from that snowless/warm era lol.

Right and it was there in the summer too-- it's basically a year round thing now. Lobster season is getting bad, TCs are forming and tracking farther north, etc.

So this is all happening because of the same anomalously warm water. On a brighter note you gotta be excited about the total solar eclipse on April 8, 2024, I'm headed that way for it-- hoping the weather holds out since early April can be touch and go. Don't know which is a better spot for it-- Watertown or Syracuse lol.

Yeah even that event was unexpected, it was supposed to be a frontal passage with some brief light rain/snow and then a wave developed and stalled out offshore.

That was a nice event in years of warmth lol 6"+ events were very rare in that era-- that was the long duration wet snow to heavy snow event right? Was that the one where it snowed for like 36 hours in a very narrow area between Newark and the Hamptons?

that south based block gotta go!

Thanks I wondered if this was like a milder version of that month! I wonder if we will flip to a warmer pattern as extremely as we did that winter or if it will get milder but more tempered (so an all around less extreme version of the wild temperature swings of that winter)....ironic that 1989-90 had one of the longest periods between first and last temp in the single digits!

I remember this for one of the reasons the models were often too warm for the 93-94 winter....remember they predicted so many snow to rain scenarios that winter and the snow always hung around longer than expected and we also had some extended mixing events. Now we also have to deal with warm waters and warm air over water that is affecting the storm tracks.

Jan 20th is a big day for snowstorms in our new climate.

Yes, dont drink that night lol. I had a friend who got badly injured because he was drinking at a work Christmas Party and he did all the right stuff (got a cab to go home, etc.) but unfortunately he broke his ankle when he got out of the cab right in front of his house by falling on the ice.

Did you go there to chase this next snowstorm?

Right and it's such a fine line in these patterns, the storm track is what makes or breaks a season.

Haha no it's okay, I know there are practical reasons why sourcing energy from space is difficult to do, but I think we're on the brink of doing something big (on multiple fronts.) Necessity is the mother of invention as they say.....

I remember those magazines and I loved them too! And I convinced my parents to get a subscription to Scientific American, Sky and Telescope and Astronomy magazine when I was in 8th grade!

I like the Tip Over Point and their calculations for how much of the planet's resources humanity uses and we're using more than what the earth can produce so we are now using resources that were created in the distant past (in effect we're raiding the planet's savings account.) We started using more than what the planet can produce back in the 70s and now Tip Over Day is in July (and keeps getting earlier every year.)

No I mean the sun is always producing energy, we just need to be able to source that energy from space where it is unblocked by the Earth...the sun itself is not intermittent, the Earth is what makes that happen.

What was the cause for the extreme cold that made that monthly average a historic 25.5....was that the coldest December on record by average temp, Don?

Need a bird species identification please....just saw a giant hawk or falcon right outside my bedroom window sitting on an overhanging bare tree branch. It was a light to medium grey in color with a darker grey head a bright yellow downward curved beak and some spots on its chest. It was large I'd say larger than a crow and thicker too. We have other large birds here on the south shore (mostly sea gulls) but this definitely was not that and this is the second time this week I've seen this bird. I hope it doesn't go after all the cardinals, robins, blue jays, doves and mockingbirds we have here. One of my neighbors leaves meat outside for stray cats because she thinks they will chase away mice or eat them, maybe that's why this hawk or falcon is here? She left a huge piece of chicken outside the other day for the cats and then she complained that they stole the paper plate she left it in too..... lol. Maybe it was this bird that took it!

I don't know of anyone who actually wants a flash freeze, they cause horrible accidents across multiple vehicles.

Right this is the nuance they are missing. I can buy luck for isolated events and small deviations like 50 miles but not repeated huge global level variations like this.

Historically it seems that southeast winds are the worst for tree damage and power outages too (?)

I'm worried about power outages we had them in NE PA even with the storm just last week. Might have widespread power outages even with those lower wind speeds. I'd like to know how long these winds are supposed to last for and how cold it will be when the winds are peaking.

Wow 70-75 mph winds here and 77 mph on the Jersey shore and even 70 mph up by Scranton, Wilkes Barre and Hazelton would be truly horrendous. How long would these winds last for Chris (above 60 mph I mean) and what would be the temperatures around the time of the highest wind gusts? Thanks!

Wow I've not seen such a widespread area of 60+ mph winds forecast before outside of tropical season, both inland and near the coast. And 70+ mph for the city and Long Island. When was the last time we had something like this-- Sandy? Or have we had that since?

Chris, I see a lot of mentions of "luck" in our "great" pattern and I wanted to ask you, as an analyzer of patterns how much does "luck" play into patterns? I feel like there are certain nuances that are not captured by models (like the warm pool that you mentioned) that are far more important than luck. Because here's the thing-- luck can maybe account for one bad outcome-- but multiple bad outcomes in a row? No, there has to be something the models are missing and that is the nuance in the pattern or climate conditions that makes it not so great that I was referencing. Weather science by its very nature is imperfect and because we don't know all things and aren't omniscient I feel like we need to take a results based approach to what is or isn't a great pattern. The only sure thing is if a pattern produces for you then that pattern was great for you. Of course this is all relative in terms of what people mean by "great" and we must also allow for some variations like if there is a mix or rain/snow line nearby or if there is a grazer, etc. It's like with the storm last January, was that luck that the heavy snow only made it as far west as Queens and Brooklyn? I could see that accounting for maybe 50 miles but probably not more than that.