LibertyBell

I wonder if every set up is fragile for someone somewhere-- it's just that the geographical location of fragility changes...it just happens to be us now.

I assume he means nice warm weather because the storm you mentioned has been pushed off until the 23rd now (on the GFS anyway.)

Awesome, I used to party in Halifax. Euro must be in the mood to party too.

Didn't one or more of these models say we had a Miller A coming up from the Gulf around the 17th? I distinctly remember maps being posted about it.

Yep Suffolk is an amazing place to be for late developing Miller B's, I think there was close to 18 inches there? We had 8" here which is an MECS any time but especially in March.

Yes and we only have a 40-50 year sample size to base it on, but it works. The one 10"+ storm was March 1993 which also changed to rain after dumping about a foot. 4-6 is perfectly fine for March for here.

I like this solution too and it goes along with my thinking of 3-5 for NYC and Long Island and up to a foot inland (including my place in the Poconos.)

so even later than me, I was thinking 0z tonight but 12z tomorrow would be better to get more consistency, especially with what 0z Euro runs have been doing over the past week. For me significant would be 4" of snow and I'm still going to take the under on that until we get more consistency.

Right, the NAM seems to do best in the "snow or nothing" specific blockbuster scenarios. Plus it always has one of these crazy runs in this time range. Would you go with a 50/50 GFS/Euro split? Of course we weigh 12z and 0z runs more than the other ones.

what verifies is usually one third to one half of the nam's output on its best runs

January 2016 may be the only storm we will ever have where both Allentown and JFK saw over 30 inches lol. Straight latitude storm. Both my places got over 30", will probably never happen again.

hybrid is Miller C right? I think PD2 2003 was that. intuitively I think the NAM works best in "snow vs nothing" scenarios not snow vs rain ones.

Whenever people make fun of the NAM I always point to Jan 2016. It does well in specific set ups. Though I'll admit that event was much more in its wheelhouse than this one is. The old E-E rule worked rather well in classic set ups like February 1983, January 1996, PD2 2003 and January 2016.

Right, earlier I had said to wait for 12z runs today, might need to extend that to 0z tonight now lol.

we all have that child of wonder inside of us, nothing wrong with displaying it

oh probably because mild + lots of moisture probably why my allergies have come early too lol

I see green stuff on my garage roof and the roofs on other people's garages and some homes....looks like green dust lol....is that pollen? I actually started seeing that in the last week of February.

Wasn't there a similar cut off for Boxing Day?

The trees have bending over....I'm worried by the weight of the snow plus the high winds over 30 mph forecast here

Amazing to have so many historic events occur on the same day! Wasn't today also the beginning of the heat in 2012? 1) 1888 blizzard 2) historic 1990 heatwave (I didn't even realize Baltimore hit 95!) 2) 1993 blizzard There is actually a secondary noreaster peak in mid March (similar to the secondary TC peak in the middle of October), probably because this is when warm and cold airmasses clash? 1888 - A blizzard paralyzed southeastern New York State and western New England. The storm produced 58 inches of snow at Saratoga NY, and 50 inches at Middletown CT. The blizzard was followed by record cold temperatures, and the cold and snow claimed 400 lives. New York City received 20.9 inches of snow, Albany NY reported 46.7 inches. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1990 - Unseasonably warm weather prevailed from the Southern and Central Plains to the Southern and Middle Atlantic Coast, with afternoon highs in the 70s and 80s. Seventy-six cities reported record high temperatures for the date. Downtown Baltimore MD was the hot spot in the nation with a record high of 95 degrees, which smashed their previous record for the date by nineteen degrees. Other record highs included 89 degrees at Washington D.C. and 90 degrees at Raleigh NC. (The National Weather Summary) 1993: An incredible blizzard known as "The Superstorm" struck the eastern United States on this date through the 15th. The storm was described as the most costly non-tropical storm ever to hit the U.S., doing an estimated $6 billion in damage. The storm was as strong as a hurricane regarding winds and low pressure. The pressure dropped to an incredible 28.35 inches of mercury or 960 millibars when then the storm was located over the Chesapeake Bay. Boston, Massachusetts, recorded a wind gust to 81 mph, the most substantial wind they had recorded since Hurricane Edna in 1954. Also, as the storm was intensifying over the Gulf of Mexico, a wind gust to 99 mph was recorded by an offshore oil rig. It dumped incredible amounts of snow from Alabama to New England. The snow amounts were significant everywhere, but for places like Birmingham, Alabama, the 17 inches recorded brought the city to a standstill for three days. Mount Leconte, North Carolina, recorded 60 inches of snow. Practically every weather station in West Virginia established a new 24-hour snowfall record during the event. Syracuse, New York was buried under 43 inches of snow. The storm killed 220 people, and another 48 lost at sea. The storm also brought a 12-foot storm surge and 15 tornadoes to Florida, where 51 people were killed. Air travel was brought to a halt as every major airport from Atlanta north was closed during the height of the storm. During the late evening into the early morning hours of the 13th, a vicious squall line swept through Florida and spawned 11 tornadoes resulting in five fatalities. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 110 mph at Alligator Point and 109 mph at Dry Tortugas. Exceptionally high tides occurred along the western Florida coast. A 13-foot storm surge occurred in Taylor County, Florida, resulting in 10 deaths with 57 residences destroyed. A 5 to 8-foot storm surge moved ashore in Dixie County. Over 500 homes were destroyed, with major damage to another 700 structures.

yeah anything more should be a "day of" call, let's see how things trend the rest of the day. I did tell people to wait for the 12z runs today before jumping ship lol. May need to extend that to 0z tonight at this rate.

well that's interesting, I feel like you're getting more optimistic too, but I'd still be very hesitant making a higher than 4" forecast for the city and coast, you know the climo here and the type of antecedent airmass we have.

in this case 13 is the lucky number here lol

earliest since 2002 right? That's the last time I remember that we greened up so early.

my trees are already in a precarious position because of the heavy wet snow from yesterday (total of 8 inches, pics posted in the March 11th thread). I'm the farthest south and farthest west county under a winter storm warning now, south of I-80 in the Poconos. 8-12 inches of snow predicted.