LibertyBell
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Everything posted by LibertyBell
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Maybe in a way it's a good thing lol?
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EPS members with a 4" average getting to 50% is pretty interesting. The chances of a moderate impact here in terms of snowfall are still on the table.
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weak el nino is good for new england, we want closer to a strong one down here
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There are also other things that make a storm much more historic than raw snowfall numbers. I've mentioned December 1992. This storm can be historic in more impactful ways than snowfall so that should be watched for too.
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we've seen this chasing the convection scenario before
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I love stacked lows because it means we no longer have to deal with a pesky warm layer and it's going to be all snow as long as you're west of the surface low.
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yup such is the nature of very marginal late season events.
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Yeah like that one has twice as much on Long Island as in the city.
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It's more like 7:1 or 8:1 tops. Just to be on the cautious side, I halve the totals of those models.
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I can't believe I have to say this, but an "atmospheric river" isn't a real river (the geological definition of a river requires that it MUST be liquid!) but it's an easier way to visualize it.
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The Euro especially.
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Don, with this skewing going on, could we calculate the mode instead of the mean? I think that would be useful, as it often is with snowfall to cancel out the extreme members. I think we have a reasonable chance to stay below the 2001-02 snowfall figure, which was my least snowiest (I wasn't alive for 1972-73).
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that plus being overly optimistic on extremely marginal late season events
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Give it to 12z tomorrow. But yes expecting more than a couple of inches around here is being very optimistic. Great for places 50 miles or more to the north or west though.
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it snowed for about 30 min here lol and then it switched to drizzle and now it looks like the sun is trying to come out
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Well I can only go by own experience why we don't get wet snow bombs at 36 degrees here this late in the season. What usually happens is it sticks when it's falling hard and as soon as the rates lighten up, whatever fell melts. That has happened 100% of the time here in all sorts of winters this late in the season. Including ones much colder than this one.
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wow I love those deep blue skies! How high up is that?
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Yeah probably good for the mountains, no way it would snow here or in the city.
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We're also close to the 30 year anniversary of the March 1993 triple phaser aren't we?
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Much colder huh-- all the forecasts I looked at for beyond next weekend had temps in the 50s lol
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well whatever was falling here looks like it has ended lol it snowed for 30 minutes
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Actually does remind me of a somewhat less strong and less duration version of December 1992. That one lasted for 3 days with high winds and heavy rain which changed to snow on the last day to give us 1-2 inches.
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See, I don't need snow to experience a massive historic storm. The most impressive ones actually don't have any snow with them (or very little snow at all.) December 1992 will always go down in my mind as the greatest coastal storm of all time for this area. What's going to happen on Tuesday can be historic without a single flake of snow being seen here.
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I have a hard time believing it will even be 2" Is this going to be it for the season Don? I noticed the storm for next weekend has trended warmer, so maybe this will be the last for the accumulating snow after the 14th?
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But it's normal for it to happen late. That's why March 1888 and February 1978 were once in a century events. We really need to name them.
