LibertyBell

I see so the causes are also effects and the effects lead to the causes too, so it's like a symbiotic relationship.

I remember! There was this one time in 2011 I think it was where it was snowing in Oceanside and Valley Stream and raining in Long Beach. Couldn't figure out how that happened lol. Long Beach does its best in strong el ninos when it will probably do better than Huntington. Imagine February 1983, PD2 or January 2016.

Those global temperature gradients would then also include the extreme SST we see in the NW Atlantic.

Yeah those two winters are the ones when I finally started to measure snowfall lol.

What's the longest timeframe that you feel that a specific storm can be forecasted. 2-3 days out? Maybe up to 5 days if there's a really strong signal?

Did Suffolk County do so well because they have more of an SNE kind of climate? That storm and the middle storm in January 2011 would be proof of that.

No not indices. I mean that events in one part of the world impact what happens in other parts of the world. On a wholistic level, not reducing everything to indices.

So glad you weren't around for December 1989 you would have hated it. Imagine historic cold with a very small amount of snow lol.

Yep it's almost like a chain reaction once things get rolling they (literally!) snowball lol. I'll always have good memories of 20-21 because of how awesome that February was. December wasn't bad either, I don't remember us getting so much rain that the snow melted away-- I think we just got a little light rain right at the end.

Well during the event it matters but I meant the smoothed out average temps for the entire month.

I mean you have to agree that there is a cause and effect connection between different global events and conditions that influences the final outcome.

Having been through some truly hellish winter months with endless cold and no snow lol.

I don't think anyone cares about temperatures-- sensibly, it's about snowfall. I've always said that temperatures don't really matter when it comes to snowfall.

wow is that 90 mph winds on the CMC Friday afternoon across eastern LI?

I wonder if the comparison to December 1989 is being followed a little too closely lol

True, this is why broadbrushing something as good as bad for snow doesn't really help us figure out what went wrong. December 1989 was a horrible pattern for coastal snow too even though the average monthly temperature was 25.5. It's about so much more than cold and blocking.

Getting a foot or more around January 20th which seems to be normal for us now would fix a lot of these bad memories lol

I would like to see a farther west track with the February event we had in 2013, although some of that could be down to random variations. We had rain for around 50% of that February 2013 storm and then around 10 inches of snow, which is still good but it feels not so good when people to your east get 30 inches. That was what I would consider an average winter. We also had the big storm in November, I would actually say that was my most memorable event that season. My prediction for this season is around 26-28 inches of snow so that would line up quite well with what we received in 12-13 (approximately-- it might have been a couple inches less than that that winter, I don't remember exactly lol)

Yes that's the thing-- and it doesn't look like the Pacific is going to be that good going forward. Besides, even for the brief time it's good it's not helping us lol.

Yeah but 2018 produced after February ended That was awesome though. No word on any SSW occurring anytime soon?

March is good for Eastern Long Island. Not so good for urban areas like NYC and Nassau county.

One of these years it would be nice to see the universe balance itself out with a really bad pattern that is horrible in every respect delivering two historic snowstorms. The universe owes us that ;-)

True Don but there are always reasons why a certain outcome happens and this might be because of that intense warm pool offshore. Going forward people should keep that in mind, that old teleconnections may no longer apply. March 1993 really stood out but even moreso February 1978! What an accomplishment forecasting that correctly was a week in advance especially after the big bust just 3 week prior.

This may be the OV bomb type storm to fix the pattern. Is this a triple phaser?

Same on the south shore-- but that meant about half an inch to three quarters of inch of snow on the ground Just thick enough to slip in lol. There was one storm I clearly remember Nick Gregory had the 2 inch line right to the south shore and I was somewhat excited watching that fall at night (that was the other thing, all those fast moving little clippers fell at night and were gone by morning.)