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LibertyBell

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Everything posted by LibertyBell

  1. LibertyBell
    We're hoping to exceed last year-- not a very high goal I know, but small steps lol.
  2. LibertyBell
    Maybe two shots next week ;-)
  3. LibertyBell
    This is a vicious circle feedback effect, so I do agree with him that 1.5C has for all intents and purposes been breached and 2.0C isn't far behind.
  4. LibertyBell
    I think that's why you weighed 1983 and 2016 slightly less than the other ones? IMO a slightly colder 2016 would be the reason it wouldn't be a one hit wonder; besides the megablizzard we had several other storms (especially in February-- close to the superbowl if I remember right) that were VERY close to being big hits. One of them took down a big crane in NYC. So an enso not as extreme as 2015-16 could result in slightly colder temperatures in the east, which would be the reason it wouldn't be a one hit wonder.
  5. LibertyBell
    1958 and 2010 are great calls by you, might want to add 2003 into the mix too ;-) 1958 was a strong el nino and 2003 and 2010 were close to being strong too (as I stated in my post above).
  6. LibertyBell
    another strong el nino that needs to be looked at for this kind of pattern is 1957-58 fwiw 2002-03 wasn't that far away from being a strong el nino too (and 2009-10 also.)
  7. LibertyBell
    there's a reason why this problem never got fixed but I forgot why? I think it had something to do with the fact that when they tried to fix it, it caused an excessive amount of tropical cyclone development on the model?
  8. LibertyBell
    I think next Tuesday will be day 700? A nice round number to end it on!
  9. LibertyBell
    what model does this use? or does it calculate the average of all the ensemble means?
  10. LibertyBell
    wild to have 1996 as an analog during a strong el nino lol I see a bunch of interesting analogs in here both 1/4/96 and 2/1/96 wow and 1/1961 thrown in there too? as well as 1978
  11. LibertyBell
    that was a fun time, we had a severe wx warning in January after the blizzard and then back to heavy snow for February
  12. LibertyBell
    5.7:1 really nice ratios there ;-)
  13. LibertyBell
    Yeah and people who dont live here say we've been lucky because no named storms have hit the east coast this year, there's been plenty of beach damage without any named storms.
  14. LibertyBell
    I heard latest 2 am too, that's when the back edge of the heaviest rain will pass to the east.
  15. LibertyBell
    I remember when the 10/91 retrograding noreaster happened, I was wondering what was going on, I had never heard of such a thing before and some news outlets were calling it a "neutercane" a term I had never heard before.
  16. LibertyBell
    When would you say the peak is, JM-- I'm hearing around midnight?
  17. LibertyBell
    Remember it like yesterday-- it was three days of high winds plus rain ending as snow on the last day. All the fences went down here right on the first day. One of these years we will get a storm like that but it will be all snow!
  18. LibertyBell
    The Yankees played their home opened in the snow, it was fun seeing the snow stick to their baseball caps lol
  19. LibertyBell
    it was like that in the Rockaways too and tree damage wasn't cleaned up for a long time.
  20. LibertyBell
    it was stronger than either December 1992 or that March 2010 noreaster! December 1992 caused the most damage because of duration though. August 2020 ranks right below Sandy in terms of wind intensity for us.
  21. LibertyBell
    80 mph in a tropical storm right?
  22. LibertyBell
    Dont hold an umbrella, you'll fly away like Mary Poppins ;-)
  23. LibertyBell
    Interesting, what sets 1995-96 from the others is that we went back to a very snowy February, March and even early April.... was that because the blocking was exceptional that winter or because the la nina was weak (as compared to 2010-11)?
  24. LibertyBell
    they're banking on the el nino backend winter idea, but we have a ways to go to get cold enough for that to happen.
  25. LibertyBell
    what a great way to see the Northern Lights ;-)
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