LibertyBell
-
Posts
45,019 -
Joined
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by LibertyBell
-
DelMarVa maybe but Tennessee maybe not because areas near the ocean are warming faster because the ocean itself is warming faster. I'm not sure what's up with the DelMarVa because DC's snowfall has dropped pretty quickly.
-
IMO it's not the decline in 1-3 thats a big deal, it's the decline in 3-6 thats the real issue here. a bunch of 3-6 storms add up quickly and thats what we've really lacked
-
The only ones I remember that happened since then are 2008-09 and 2012-13. In 2008-09, a moderate snow event in December (4"), a cold somewhat dry January with lots of minor snow events but long lasting snow cover, a February snow event that dropped another 4" and the March 1st storm that gave us 8". Not a bad winter at all. I liked this a lot more than 2012-13 which consisted of two snow events, the one in November which happened a week after Sandy and then the one which hit Suffolk County hard and we got sideswiped.
-
The other thing about early season snows is they typically mean that it's colder up north too. So there is snow cover to our north, the lakes freeze earlier, etc and cold airmasses are much less modified when they get down here, resulting in colder air when the storms come and more snow for us. This is probably why in some winters, like 1993-94 the models underestimated the amount of cold available and the storms always trended snowier and colder. 1995-96 was like this too, outside of the three week thaw in January after the big blizzard.
-
No multimodel support, so it's just a tease.
-
I saved it, even if simulated snow is the only snow we get, at least we will always have this.
-
Right, it seems like what happens in December or early January is what usually repeats later in the season.
-
If only this would work out, it's a great pattern for anyone from I-80 on south.
-
ah so in this case we're part of the midatlantic.
-
Why is the enthusiasm so low though? Is everyone taking a wait and see approach? Looking to see how much multimodel support there is for this.
-
well the pattern is supposed to peak at the end of February and early March when the greatest effects of the SSW plus the pattern change both converge so that may be the best time regardless. and it's not like that's without precedent, a few of our recent bad winters had their only snow event in early March.
-
Yes, and the days are noticeably longer on both ends (the sky is starting to get brighter before 6:30 am and stays bright after 5 pm).
-
Extended summer stormlover74 future snow hole banter thread 23
LibertyBell replied to BxEngine's topic in New York City Metro
Wow, does it look like a 2010 repeat? El nino to la nina transitions are very hot! The following winters are usually nice too -
In most such hyperactive seasons we don't get hit. We didn't in 2005 or 2020 either.
-
Could it be worse than the year we had 30 TC's Don (I think that was 2020)? Hyperactive seasons tend to favor the Gulf over the East Coast don't they? Is there any way to predict which region would be favored this year?
-
You had a nice job and I imagine Merck had to do a lot of changes after the fiasco and controversy over Vioxx.
-
Post observation adjustments - appropriate?
LibertyBell replied to ChescoWx's topic in Climate Change
Be well, one other thing we can all agree on, sunshine and blue skies heals the heart and energizes the soul! -
Post observation adjustments - appropriate?
LibertyBell replied to ChescoWx's topic in Climate Change
Yes, I agree with this too, large paradigm shifts only usually happen after something really bad happens first. I thought the results of the pandemic would be cause something like that to occur (it still might, how it was handled has lasting effects.) -
Post observation adjustments - appropriate?
LibertyBell replied to ChescoWx's topic in Climate Change
Yes, sadly we see greed and a thirst for control and power from all sides, because everyone seems to be chasing their cash cow. It's happened throughout human history, from even way before there were fossil fuels being used. It's why wars are fought and millions of people die. -
Since you've been relatively nice, I'm removing your name from my sig. Let's try to keep the peace okay? The weather is quiet right now too.
-
Post observation adjustments - appropriate?
LibertyBell replied to ChescoWx's topic in Climate Change
Thanks, I have said this before and I'll say this again-- you provide a valuable service with what you do both in terms of your service record and also the logs you keep about sea surface temperature. It's not easy to find this kind of information for specific areas. I have always thought the most important way to handle situations is how do they impact human health? Changes in temperature do have an impact, but it's always been a hazy issue how much is cyclical and how much is human induced, and out of that subset, how much is from carbon emissions and how much is from transforming the planet into large densely populated concrete filled cities. I can definitely say that living in a large urban area has an impact on health, because whenever I stay at my other house in the Poconos I sleep so much better (no light pollution) and the air feels so much cleaner. This is an issue that isn't just about climate change, but also about how we build our cities and the materials we use to build them with. -
I heard of this, see we are moving forward with geoengineering.
-
Post observation adjustments - appropriate?
LibertyBell replied to ChescoWx's topic in Climate Change
I think there are some things easier to see than others-- we do know that fossil fuel emissions have a negative impact on human health (higher rates of asthma and air pollution shortening life by 2 years on average-- more than smoking cigarettes does.) The other thing we can acknowledge is that we are causing a mass extinction of species that are very beneficial to us-- the pollinators. -
It was interesting to see Judah Cohen's 10 minute interview just now on the weather channel. They congratulated him on being the "long range champion" and said he was the only one to correctly forecast the 2-3 week arctic shot in January. Cohen went on to say that he believes the SSW will be a weaker version of what happened in January and that he sees this one as being more notable for cold rather than snow. He said this has been an amazing winter for the stratosphere, though the results have not always made it to ground level.
-
It was interesting to see Judah Cohen's 10 minute interview just now on the weather channel. They congratulated him on being the "long range champion" and said he was the only one to correctly forecast the 2-3 week arctic shot in January. Cohen went on to say that he believes the SSW will be a weaker version of what happened in January and that he sees this one as being more notable for cold rather than snow. He said this has been an amazing winter for the stratosphere, though the results have not always made it to ground level.
