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LibertyBell

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Everything posted by LibertyBell

  1. Geographically it makes sense, they are a snowball's throw away from Maine which is like the arctic tundra compared to us lol.
  2. The SSW made that entire winter (after January of course).
  3. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/einstein-s-parable-of-quantum-insanity/ Someone has to tell them then-- because even science magazines keep repeating it lol. This whole article is worth reading actually, it explains why what people call "luck" doesn't actually exist, and you can apply this to weather or anything else really-- there is inherent unpredictability in complex emergent systems. The bold part is why there is no such thing as luck-- we simply have a very imperfect understanding of nature and reductionism simplifies our theories, not nature itself. “Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.” That witticism—I’ll call it “Einstein Insanity”—is usually attributed to Albert Einstein. Though the Matthew effect may be operating here, it is undeniably the sort of clever, memorable one-liner that Einstein often tossed off. And I’m happy to give him the credit, because doing so takes us in interesting directions. First of all, note that what Einstein describes as insanity is, according to quantum theory, the way the world actually works. In quantum mechanics you can do the same thing many times and get different results. Indeed, that is the premise underlying great high-energy particle colliders. In those colliders, physicists bash together the same particles in precisely the same way, trillions upon trillions of times. Are they all insane to do so? It would seem they are not, since they have garnered a stupendous variety of results. Of course Einstein, famously, did not believe in the inherent unpredictability of the world, saying “God does not play dice.” Yet in playing dice, we act out Einstein Insanity: We do the same thing over and over—namely, roll the dice—and we correctly anticipate different results. Is it really insane to play dice? If so, it’s a very common form of madness! We can evade the diagnosis by arguing that in practice one never throws the dice in precisely the same way. Very small changes in the initial conditions can alter the results. The underlying idea here is that in situations where we can’t predict precisely what’s going to happen next, it’s because there are aspects of the current situation that we haven’t taken into account. Similar pleas of ignorance can defend many other applications of probability from the accusation of Einstein Insanity to which they are all exposed. If we did have full access to reality, according to this argument, the results of our actions would never be in doubt.
  4. That's the part I'm interested in-- what caused the Pac jet to go so crazy and develop into an el nino pattern? So basically our worst possible pattern would be an early el nino pattern and a later la nina pattern. La Ninas are supposed to be great early and El Ninos are great late and we have the opposite of that.
  5. Yes I'm a results oriented person too. The atmosphere can't be reduced to a few indices. I see the whole planet and basically the same thing going on everywhere. If you want the answers as to why this is happening that's all you really need to know.
  6. not with this luck thing again--- the pattern was never all that great to begin with
  7. Pattern can change as much as it wants, there just isn't as much cold air around as there used to be. That's brutal honesty. Even a place like Buffalo that has seen so much snow has had warmer temperatures than they normally have.
  8. I wonder what those SST are at now?
  9. Not really, those games are close while the Bengals are blowing everyone out
  10. Would love to know how much snow remains on the ground near Mt Pocono at the end of this.
  11. this is like late March weather lol
  12. Yeah isn't that strange? I wonder why that happened? All that rain into California...I wonder if this is an early sign that next winter will be a moderate or strong el nino?
  13. that was my favorite decade....the 4 extremely hot and dry summers and the 2 snowy winters lol.
  14. That shouldn't be considered a "warning" it should be called shouts of glee (especially in that very warm winter lol-- but in any winter really lol.)
  15. The "mean" from the 80s was entirely different from what it is today (I know because I lived through it)....the winters were orders of magnitude colder back then (by a lot), even though it didn't snow much that decade either, the winters were at least 5 degrees colder. This has been a crap pattern for snow not just for us but for large regions of the globe that expect snow, from the Great Lakes (outside of Buffalo) to most of Europe, with people suffering neck and back injuries and going to the ER because they were trying to "ski" on small scraps of snow in the Alps....it's been snowless in Germany, Austria and Switzerland too. Looking at the whole globe you can see this is what to expect going forward with the changing climate. Chris showed some graphs indicating the kind of blocking we had in 2010 and 2011 was something like a 1 in 500 year event?
  16. that's not a thing when the climate is changing..lake effect areas aren't getting what they used to either and Europe is also in a massive snow drought. You have to look beyond your backyard.
  17. that was a la nina after an el nino that's entirely different from a third year la nina. and that blocking was MUCH stronger and MUCH better located than this was.
  18. I don't know man, when the same thing keeps happening over and over that's not luck lol It's also happened like that before-- there are cycles that repeat themselves.
  19. Was that like the storm we had in Feb 2014?
  20. Orlovsky just said on ESPN that Joe Burrow is the best QB in the NFL, I generally agree with that-- I mean the guy has never looked back from winning the national championship and changed the entire Bengal organization.
  21. The defenses (and the rules) today are frankly just not that good compared to that era. The Giants back then also had multiple hall of famers on their defensive line didn't they?
  22. It didn't need to snow that winter, it was between 93-94 and 95-96 lol. I don't even remember anything from 94-95 except the big arctic shot in April.
  23. There was another big arctic shot most don't remember....in April 1995, and I mean it was a BIG one, we got down into the low 20s with highs only in the mid 30s under full sunshine and very windy.
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