LibertyBell

The problem is the modeling always seems to be good when it shows no snow....why is that I wonder?

Your puppy came home...did he get lost before that? That's rough man.

That gradient will very likely be north of our area.

Hopefully NYC projects to greenify the city will mute some of this UHI (the goal is to make NYC 30% green by 2030.) We have a lot of rooftop gardens and do urban farming in the city now for better health, We need to get rid of all this ugly concrete-- once and for all!

I will say that back in the 90s I made some observations about why it seems to snow more to our south and to our north. NY is in a bad position for storm tracks, there is a storm track to our south and another storm track to our north. For us to get snowstorms we need both to phase (and thus create coastals), so we're much more dependent on coastals than either those to our north and or those to our south. Now, as that southern storm track shifts north we can get hit by those storms, but that adds another complication-- we have the ocean to our south, while the people to our south have an ocean to their east. That actually makes us much more sensitive to changeovers than those to our south would be with a relatively similar storm track. The moral of the story is, if you have the ocean to your south, you'll get screwed before those who have the ocean to their east will. Same is true in the summer, if you're a fan of extreme heat (and I am) you don't want the ocean to your south, you'd rather have it to your east so the ocean doesn't taint big heatwaves.

I thought the strong SE ridge is why we're getting cutters?

although we can say it never even started lol, it was just one long fall

We have access to more information....by using data from all over the world. We don't have to limit ourselves to just our backyards. The thing you mentioned about storm tracks moving farther north is exactly the argument I used for why it got snowier in the 2000s and 2010s. Eventually though those tracks will/are moving even further north, and we even see heat going north of us in the summer with the Bermuda High located at a higher latitude sending the most anomalous heat into New England and Atlantic Canada (which is also causing the Maine lobster season to move into the Maritime Provinces.) Point being that yes it's shifting farther north, but it will also continue to do so.

37 is rain/snow mix, we can get a small accumulation if it gets to 36 and falls down hard enough.

When? The operative word is "will"

37 sounds like a rain/snow mix....how low does the temperature get during the storm? In my experience it has to be 36 degrees for snow to stick at all and that's only when it's falling at least an inch an hour.

2/22/08 was amazing and you're right, it came in in the middle of the night! I don't think it was a Lakes Cutter like this one is either and both the air and water were a lot colder than they are now.

Yeah that's usually a slowly retreating arctic airmass. It looks like temperatures will barely touch freezing even for an overnight low.

I mean that makes sense. I don't know of any situation where we've had an accumulating snow with a storm on that track with no arctic air pressing down.

I heard that happened on Bald Hill on Long Island lol. I'm still waiting for that one storm where it's snowing on the 2nd floor of my house and raining on the ground floor (or snowing at tree top level and raining at grass level.)

I mean temperatures in the upper 30s seem reasonable, I would be suspicious of anything colder than that.

There is no cold on our side of the globe

Yeah that's what I was saying, is this a general oceanic circulation thing that affects all oceans now.....are the western parts of all oceans becoming much warmer than the eastern parts? I can see WHY that might be happening. With more heatwaves and a general west to east movement of circulation it stands to reason that western basins would become warmer than eastern basins all over the northern hemisphere at least. Perhaps the same is happening in the Atlantic.

Think about it this way, at first it was being said all of February would be mild and snowless, now you're cutting into the first 10 days of the month.

That's some hill lol.

Because we have to combine this info with temperatures (which are warmer than they were back in the 80s.) The temperatures even with blocking have become warmer than they used to be. Also I have bad allergies today, from this @!#$%^ wind. To now be having allergies in Januaries is something I hadn't thought possible.

I think your screen name for this season should be CPdoesnthavetomeasuresnow lol

and this was THE GOAT

Aren't the cooler waters off the west coast the direct result of the warmer waters in the West Pac though. It's a push-pull thing I guess. I wonder what's going on in the East Atlantic? Maybe the eastern basins of the major oceans are cooling off while the western basins are heating up? How come the troughs from the previous years on the west coast didn't cause as much rain as this one? It's basically saved California from forest fires and exceptional to extreme drought!

That was so awesome because it was a very strong el nino and basically an enhanced version of 1982-83. Now we can talk about what caused the enhancement (some of that was definitely climate change.... Chris posted some research showing that the warmer waters added a kick to that storm causing more snow to fall than would have otherwise fallen.)